Nearly two-thirds of Americans think Donald Trump is a criminal, including 53% who say he intentionally violated the law and another 11% who believe he did so unintentionally.
To no one’s surprise, the new ABC News/Ipsos survey also found large partisan disparities, with 87% of Democrats saying Trump intentionally did something illegal and 57% of independents agreeing, while just 19% of Republicans think Trump intentionally violated the law.
The poll also showed public opinion modestly increasing against Trump since news of the charges first broke on March 30, and the 34 counts were revealed on April 3. As of April 1, 50% of the public said the charges against Trump were either very or somewhat serious, while 52% believe that now.
But the poll found meaningful movement among independents, with the number who said the charges against Trump are very or somewhat serious increasing 11 points since April 1, from 43% then to 54% now.
While the charges have likely done little to improve Trump’s chances in a general election, they appear to be helping his quest to win the GOP nomination, though it’s perhaps too early to say decisively. Civiqs tracking of Trump’s favorable ratings shows Trump’s standing improving slightly among both Republicans and independents since he announced on March 19 that he expected to be arrested.
Since that declaration, Trump’s overall favorable rating has netted a narrow 2-point gain to 35% favorable, 58% unfavorable.
The modest bump derives mostly from a 2-point net gain among independents (32% favorable, 58% unfavorable) and a single point of improvement with Republicans (75% favorable, 14% unfavorable). Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans (below) is clearly heading in a positive direction.
Civiqs tracking reflects what several post-indictment polls and focus groups have found: Trump is consolidating the GOP base behind him. From a short-term standpoint, Trump’s latest foray into commanding negative attention continues to improve his standing among Republicans, but it remains to be seen whether that trend will continue if additional indictments start piling up in several other criminal investigations into the twice-impeached 2020 loser.
Post-indictment, Trump is consolidating the GOP vote. But will it last?
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