The polls have now closed in Chicago, but it’ll be another hour before they do so in Wisconsin. As is our practice here at Daily Kos Elections, we won’t start discussing results until (per the AP’s estimates) we have at least 10% of the vote in. Otherwise, you’re just dealing with too small a sample size—but even at the 10% mark, pitfalls abound.
That’s because, as you’re no doubt familiar with at this point, the early and mail vote typically leans Democratic nowadays, while the Election Day in-person vote leans Republican. So as the returns come in, it’s important to note not just where they’re coming from (is it a big city, say, or a rural area?) but what type of ballot has been counted.