Live coverage: Wisconsin Supreme Court and Chicago mayor elections

Wisconsin is holding its officially nonpartisan contest for a pivotal seat on the state Supreme Court between progressive Janet Protasiewicz and conservative Daniel Kelly. A victory for Protasiewicz would give liberals a majority on the court for the first time since 2008. The Badger State is also hosting a special election for the 8th Senate District where the GOP’s supermajority is on the line.

Also on tap are the runoff for mayor of Chicago and nonpartisan primaries for mayor in Denver, Colorado Springs, and Lincoln, Nebraska. You can check out our preview of all of these races.

Results: WI Supreme Court, SD-08 | Chicago | Colorado Springs | Denver | Lincoln

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 3:42:48 AM +00:00 · David Nir

We’re going to close out the liveblog on what was an extremely good night for progressives, who flipped the state Supreme Court in Wisconsin and won the race for mayor of Chicago. The state Senate special election in Wisconsin remains uncalled, but Republican Dan Knodl is likely to hang on. Thanks for joining us!

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 2:43:43 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI State Senate: Milwaukee County just dropped most of its remaining vote and it looks like Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin will come just short. Republican Dan Knodl is up 50.5 to 49.5, or about 700 votes, with very little vote remaining to be counted.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 2:32:32 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Chicago: The AP has called the race for Chicago mayor for Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who positioned himself as the more progressive option. Brandon currently leads former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas 51-49, or by about 14,000 votes, but later-arriving mail ballots are all but certain to increase that margin, which likely explains the AP’s call.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 2:11:40 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI State Senate: So it appears that the AP tally (which powers Politico, the New York Times, etc.) may be off. Election analyst Ryan Brune calculates (using each county’s local election site) that Knodl, the Republican, is actually ahead 52-48. However, much of the outstanding vote is in Milwaukee County, which contains Habush Sinykin’s best turf. If so, this one is going to be very close.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 2:01:47 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI State Senate: This happens sometimes: AP’s estimate of the total vote tallied has ticked downward and is now at 83% (it was previously 90%!). Habush Sinykin still leads Knodl by about 1,500 votes, or 51-49, so this’ll all come down to which turf is still outstanding.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:56:41 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI State Senate: YEAH BABY! The AP calls the race for Janet Protasiewicz, giving progressives their first majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court since 2008! The importance of this win cannot be overstated. Not only could the court restore abortion access in the state (which is banned due to a zombie 1849 law that got resurrected after Roe was struck down), but it could also find that Wisconsin’s legislative and congressional maps violate voters’ rights as partisan gerrymanders designed to benefit the GOP. And more! This is HUGE!

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:52:40 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI State Senate: Wowza. Habush Sinykin, the Democrat, is back in the lead, with a 51-49 edge on Dan Knodl with 90% reporting. No matter what happens, this race never should have been this close for Republicans.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:48:41 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI Sup Ct: With 51% now reporting, Protasiewicz is still enjoying a wide 57-43 lead. It’s very, very hard to see how Kelly could possibly overcome this.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:44:28 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI State Senate: An estimated 84% has been tallied and Habush Sinykin is clinging to a 50.3 to 49.7 lead, or about 400 votes. If she hangs on, it would be a massive upset for Dems—and roll back the GOP’s new supermajority in the chamber (which Republicans have threatened to use to impeach and remove Democrats from office).

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:37:16 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI Sup Ct: All the numbers so far have been good for Protasiewicz, compared to the combined performance by progressive candidates in the primary. During that round, the two progressives took 54% of the vote while the two conservatives (including Dan Kelly, who’s on the ballot tonight) took 46%.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:29:11 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI State Senate: With about a third of the vote tallied, Democrat Jodi Habush Sinykin holds 52-48 lead on Republican Dan Knodl—but again, the results could gyrate a lot. Bear in mind that this is pretty red turf: Trump carried this district by 5, and in the Supreme Court primary in February, the two conservative candidates collectively led the two progressive candidates 54-46.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:26:16 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI Sup Ct: So we’re all of a sudden at 20% reporting and Janet Protasiewicz has a huge 60-40 lead, but—well, you knew there was a “but” coming—much of the vote so far is from the liberal bastions of Milwaukee and Madison (aka Dane County).

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:21:25 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Chicago: Johnson’s lead keeps growing—he’s up about 4,000 votes now, with about 81% reporting. That’s harsh news for Vallas, since, as Daniel Nichanian notes, we’re at about 500,000 votes tallied overall and city officials said that about 530,000 people had voted as of 7 PM local time today. However—and this is a very important however—there will be a sizable number of later-arriving mail ballots, and in the primary, those favored Johnson heavily. So even if it’s very close when we all go to bed, Johnson’s lead is likely to grow tomorrow.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:14:03 AM +00:00 · David Nir

WI Sup Ct: Just a teeny trickle of votes so far—not enough to draw any conclusions from.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 1:01:05 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Two things: One, polls have now closed in Wisconsin. And two, Johnson just took his first lead in Chicago: He’s up by about 1,000 votes on Vallas.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 12:50:45 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Wow. This one is crazy close. Vallas now leads by just 400 votes—less than one-tenth of a percent—with an estimated 78% counted. This is the closest election for mayor of Chicago since 1983, when the legendary Harold Washington beat Republican Bernard Epton 52-48 to become the city’s first Black mayor.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 12:39:06 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Vallas’ lead is now down to just 50.3 to 49.7, a raw vote margin of just 2,400, with 73% of the vote tallied.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 12:32:11 AM +00:00 · David Nir

An important detail to note: Vallas led Johnson in the crowded February primary by an 11-point margin (33-22), but on election night, his lead was 15 points. Once mail ballots were tallied, Vallas’ edge shrunk. It’s possible we could see something similar once again.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 12:28:39 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Suddenly we’re at 57% reporting in Chicago and Vallas’ lead has shrunk to 51-49.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 12:26:49 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Unfortunately, we don’t know where these votes are coming from. Per the New York Times, “City officials are expected to begin releasing results by ward after midnight, Central time, into Wednesday morning.” So it’s impossible to say whether Vallas-friendly or Johnson-friendly precincts are reporting so far.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 12:21:18 AM +00:00 · David Nir

Just like that, we have our first batch of votes in Chicago, and it’s a big one, taking us all the way to 18% reporting, per the AP’s estimate. Paul Vallas, the more centrist of the two candidates, is leading Brandon Johnson 53-47.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 12:16:03 AM +00:00 · David Nir

While we wait, here’s a fantastic story about how the most active precinct in the city of Chicago is now … the Cook County Jail. People who’ve been arrested but haven’t yet been convicted still retain the right to vote, and the jail has offered in-person voting since 2020. In the February primary, while turnout was just 36% of registered voters citywide, the jail (which houses 5,000) saw turnout of more than 50%.

UPDATE: Wednesday, Apr 5, 2023 · 12:06:22 AM +00:00 · David Nir

The polls have now closed in Chicago, but it’ll be another hour before they do so in Wisconsin. As is our practice here at Daily Kos Elections, we won’t start discussing results until (per the AP’s estimates) we have at least 10% of the vote in. Otherwise, you’re just dealing with too small a sample size—but even at the 10% mark, pitfalls abound.

That’s because, as you’re no doubt familiar with at this point, the early and mail vote typically leans Democratic nowadays, while the Election Day in-person vote leans Republican. So as the returns come in, it’s important to note not just where they’re coming from (is it a big city, say, or a rural area?) but what type of ballot has been counted.