On both Telegram and Twitter, there are reports out of Melitopol that Ukrainian partisans, operating 80km behind the lines, have blown up an armor transport train waiting at the station. Reports suggest that this train was relocated after a drone attack on the area on April 2, but partisans tracked it down and got out the gasoline. No word on whether the train was carrying Russian equipment at the time it was destroyed.
That’s pretty interesting all on its own, and possibly a significant blow to Russian forces in the area, but here’s what makes it extraordinary. As Yahoo News reported on May 18, 2022: “In captured Melitopol, the Ukrainian resistance movement has managed to blow up a Russian armoured train as it was transporting soldiers and equipment.” So this is the second train to be blown up at Melitopol.
Except it’s not. As the Kyiv Post reported when Ukraine made a series of drone strikes on Melitopol last month, the precise targeting again took out a train that had paused in the railyard, this one reportedly carrying a number of Kalibr missiles of the type that have been used against Ukrainian cities. So if reports that partisans have taken out another train on Thursday are accurate, that’s at least three trains, and any equipment on those trains, that Russia has lost at Melitopol.
It’s the kind of thing that might make you check to see if you can squeeze a tank onto the bus.
The thing about Melitopol is that Russia would have a very, very hard time transporting troops or materiel in southern Ukraine without going through it.
Melitopol area. Open image in another tab for a larger view.
The rail lines to and from Crimea run along that road that juts southwest out of Melitopol. This is not only the location Russia uses to move equipment by rail to locations closer to Zaporizhzhya, it’s where almost everything that comes through Crimea gets off the train and on the highway. It is, by far, the most important transportation hub in the region.
But of course, all those roads leading out of Melitopol also lead into Melitopol. Its location at the midpoint of Russian-occupied territory in southern Ukraine and its importance to Russia in moving equipment across the region had made this city a leading contender for the first place Ukraine might hit in any counteroffensive.
Russia has removed equipment from storage areas in Crimea
This week, satellite imagery Maxar and The Washington Post made available some hires satellite imagery of Crimea. While this was done primarily in support of the Post story on Russia’s construction of an extensive network of trenches and other defensive structures, imagery expert Brady Africk noticed something else—a lot of Russian equipment formerly kept in this area is now missing. That includes “tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery” formerly stored in this area.
This location is about 10km northeast of the city of Dzhankoi. It’s tempting to believe that Russia moved this materiel after Ukraine demonstrated its ability to strike in this area with an attack on the Dzhankoi rail junction in March. However, the second round of imagery is actually from March 16, which is about a week before Ukraine’s big strike in the area. It’s also possible that this equipment has simply been moved to Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, and other locations where Russian equipment has been expended at a rapid clip.
In any case, it’s worth hitting the clip above to see the difference. This is a large amount of equipment, and it’s certainly gone somewhere. Is it supporting a Russian offensive, preparing to meet a counteroffensive, or already broken along roads in eastern Ukraine?
A drone strike on Russia, A meteorite hits Ukraine
Including this video mainly because of the location. It appears to be happening at a location about 5km northeast of Torske and about 10km west of Kreminna. This appears to indicate that, while Ukraine continues to report Russian attacks on the village of Dibrova just west of Kreminna, Russian forces may have bypassed this village to the north along Lymanska Street (the main road between Lyman and Kreminna).
This could explain how, over the last two months, there have been both continuing fights at Dibrova and sporadic reports of fighting close to Torske or Yampolivka. This does not seem to indicate any new advance on the part of Russian forces. However, there was at least one awful event reported on Wednesday. That earlier video in which Ukrainian forces used a trench clearing UR-77 “Meteorite” to blast a path through Russian forces in Bakhmut? Russia apparently returned the favor by using a Meteorite against Ukrainian troops in the forest south of Kreminna on Wednesday. Ukrainian military is regarding this as a big intelligence failure as the UR-77 has a very short range and shouldn’t have survived long enough to approach Ukrainian lines.
In any case, expect an updated map in this area when I can gather some more information on what’s happening here.
Notice once again that the weapon in use by Ukraine is a modified FPV drone. These are turning out to be the weapon of choice for these kamikaze attacks, and the VR goggles used with these drones make for very effective and precise targeting and the drones themselves are extremely inexpensive. These are the kind of drones that reportedly make up a large part of that Ukrainian “attack swarm” that kos discussed last week.
If you want to see how quickly and deliberately drone technology is advancing in Ukraine, check out the video below. This isn’t happening through random selection. People are watching very closely the videos of how drones are being used and getting feedback from soldiers on the front line. Also included in this video, a glimpse of a drone actually carrying one of those improbably large shells.
A walk through Kyiv
What I like about this particular one-minute walk is that it seems like it could be anywhere. Except for a few unfamiliar cars at the curb, this location seems like something I might find in part of St. Louis, Chicago, Seattle, New York, or just about any city in Europe. I like that. Kyiv should be just another normal, lively city.
a drive through Bakhmut
The text says, “Bakhmut in the evening. The fortress is holding.”
Not that the video here, which is by all accounts new, no longer shows the heavy snow that fell on Bakhmut just five days ago. Some videos and images from the area still show spots of snow in areas of trees or in shaded areas, but for the most part, Bakhmut appears to be back to just mud—though there are predictions of possible snow again this week. After a very warm winter, spring is making a reluctant start in eastern Ukraine.
In Bakhmut, Russia reportedly brought a TOS-1 into the eastern area of the city on Wednesday and began systematically reducing blocks along the river with thermobaric weapons. This doesn’t appear to be an area where Ukrainian troops were present. It’s just making rubble for rubble’s sake.
There is a weird story circulated on Telegram this morning that a Russian T-80 tank was hit by artillery, which revealed that what were supposed to be reactive armor panels were actually seat cushions packed with cardboard egg crates. I have zero evidence for this, and it sounds like a joke based on the “Russia stole everything out of their tanks” idea. But I’m passing it along, because it seems like such a strange joke there just might be something to it.
The New York Counteroffensive?
When picking spots where Ukraine might launch a counteroffensive, New York probably wasn’t at the top of the list. But this is Nui-York, the town in eastern Ukraine just west of occupied Horlivka. There are reports on Thursday that Ukraine has made an advance down the highway to the south of this location.
Niu-York area. Open image in another tab for a larger view.
It’s not possible yet to tell the scope of this operation. It could just be little more than the kind of tentative advance that both Ukraine and Russia have been making along the southern part of the front. Hopefully, there will be more information today, but there has already been speculation this is intended to relieve pressure on Avdiivka to the south.
Ukrainian military estimates
