In the ongoing saga of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' sagging presidential ambitions, The New York Times, in separate stories a single day apart, portrayed the governor as "limping to the starting line" before doing a 180 and declaring he "impresse[d] in Iowa, showing up an absent Trump."
Um … so which is it?
To be fair to the Times, the first piece was clearly a feature that had been in the works for days if not weeks, while the second was more of a light and frothy narrative about DeSantis’ relatively positive weekend on the campaign trail.
But any way you slice it, Donald Trump is still the candidate to beat in the Republican primary and DeSantis is playing catch-up. And among his many deficits as a campaigner, DeSantis' fatal flaw remains the fact that he won't admit Trump lost in 2020, even as he touts "electability" as his chief attribute.
But as long as we're following day-by-day narratives, it's worth noting that DeSantis logged two big losses Tuesday night: one in his own backyard, and another by venturing beyond Florida's borders.
In the Sunshine State's largest city, Jacksonville Democrat Donna Deegan flipped the mayor's office and defeated Republican Daniel Davis, head of the city's Chamber of Commerce and a DeSantis endorsee. Deegan, the city's first female mayor, was considered an underdog but won by an impressive 4-point margin, 52% - 48%.
Democrats' triumph in Jacksonville—which was the largest city in the country led by a Republican—is a blow to DeSantis' supposed dominance of the state.
Adding to his humiliation, DeSantis embarked on an ill-fated last-minute foray into the GOP primary for Kentucky governor. As the Times reports, DeSantis’ late endorsement of Kelly Craft, Trump's former U.N ambassador, made the race an immediate proxy battle between himself and Trump, who had backed Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron months before.
Long story short, DeSantis backed the wrong horse, who was already down in the polls and ultimately finished third, falling roughly 30 points shy of Cameron. Yikes.
But beyond having a really bad day at the polls, DeSantis continues to lack basic human skills on the campaign trail. Check out this video of DeSantis weirdly cackling in response to a joke.
Here’s an even more horrifying still shot:
His campaign is trying to mitigate his awkwardness by featuring more of his pageant-starved wife, Casey, a former news anchor.
At one fundraiser in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, Casey joked, “When he gets home, don’t think for a second that he goes and goes right to bed. ... I hand three small kids over to him and I go to bed.” That worked for attendee Bob Carlson, who told The New York Times the event showed him the "tender side" of DeSantis, a side that "I didn’t really have an appreciation for." Internally, however, some in DeSantis’ camp are trying to minimize her influence.
It's important to remember that a gulf sometimes exists between national polling and statewide polling, particularly in early states that get a better look at candidates. But nationally, Trump's lead over DeSantis has consistently increased since mid-March, when Trump led by roughly 15 points. That lead has now doubled to about 30 points.
And the more voters see of the Florida governor, the less they like him. In Civiqs tracking, DeSantis' national favorability rating has ticked down steadily among registered voters since being nearly even in mid-December, to 15 points underwater now, 38% favorable - 53% unfavorable.
What's fair to say at this early juncture is the fact that the Republican primary is still Trump's to lose. But with over a year of campaigning left, more Trump indictments likely to fall, and early-state contests reshuffling the field, it's still way too early to make any definitive calls about the contest.
DeSantis' failure to maintain the perception of a two-person race, however, has left an opening for a third candidate to emerge. And if former vice president Mike Pence, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley, or entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy were capable of being that emergent candidate, they likely wouldn't still be flatlining in the polls even as DeSantis has shed support.
Jennifer Fernandez Ancona from Way to Win joins Markos and Kerry to talk about the new messaging the Democratic Party’s national candidates are employing going into 2024. Ancona was right about the messaging needed to win the midterms, and we think she’s right about 2024.
