Roll Call has obtained information from a Republican pollster that shows that likely voters have moved 6% towards Democrats in a generic US Senate poll and 10% toward Democrats in a generic US House poll. The shift is due to the Supreme Court’s “Dobbs” decision overturning “Roe vs Wade” which was announced in June 2022.
The information was obtained from a binder left behind at a conference of top GOP congressional staff members.
“There has been a 6 point swing in the last year on the Generic Senate ballot from R+3 to D+3. This movement is [led] overwhelmingly by Independent and NEW voters that identify abortion as one of their top issues,” according to a “National Issue Study” by co/efficient...
The poll, conducted April 20-24, had similar findings on the House side. “There has been a 10 point swing in the last year on the Generic House Ballot from R+6 to D+4. This movement is [led] overwhelmingly by Independent and NEW voters that identify abortion as one of their top issues,” it said on slide seven. “Reproductive Freedom is the #1 issue among those that DID NOT vote in 2020.”
Referendums on abortion state amendments and special elections in various parts of the country since the Dobbs Decision last summer have shown similar results. And then there was the 2022 US congressional elections where Republicans gained only nine seats in the US House, had a net loss of one Senate seat, lost control of several state legislatures and had a net loss of two governorships.
If one were to apply the 6% shift to the Presidential election, and Biden versus Trump becomes a rout. Biden’s 4.5% popular vote win balloons to 10.5%.
Consider these 2020 election results from some states that Biden lost:
2020 Election With 6% Shift to Biden
Of course, the election is 16 months away. Polling is never precise and generic polls only measure the national mood at the moment.
Abortion is certainly a more immediate concern to voters where it is in danger and is less of an issue in California than it is in say...North Carolina.