UPDATE: Sunday, May 28, 2023 · 4:46:44 PM +00:00 · kos
Not that it was ever in the cards, but now we know for sure that the Senate won’t be able to pass the legislation with unanimous consent.
And there is a great deal of confusion about the details.
Wow, I had read FY22. Same with the IRS spending, with reports saying $10 billion in cuts, and MAGA Rep. Chip Roy saying $1.9 billion. As such, the details may end up being even better for us.
With a debt deal in hand, the big question is whether House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has the votes to pass his chamber. As of now, he’s projecting confidence.
There is little chance his caucus is “overwhelmingly excited,” but with Democratic votes, passage shouldn’t be a problem.
The reason Republicans are angry is that they have just neutered their chamber for the rest of this congressional term. Here are the known details, copy-pasting much of myself from last night:
- Non-defense discretionary spending only goes up 1% this year. Non-enforceable limits on appropriations after 2024.
- IRS funding to go after tax cheats redirected toward domestic programs to avert cuts. This affects $10 billion of the original $80 billion appropriation. Republicans had tried to gut the entire program in their original debt bill. [Update: Republican Rep. Chip Roy says it’s only $1.9 billion in cuts, so might be even better for us.]
- New work requirements for food assistance (a GOP demand), raising the age of non-dependent recipients to 54 from 49, exempting veterans and the homeless. Republicans had tried to extend these requirements to other programs as part of McCarthy’s “red lines.”
- Medicaid left untouched. The GOP budget recently passed added work requirements to that program (and others) as well.
- Student loan debt relief left untouched. That had been a huge Republican priority, because hurting people is their entire reason to exist.
- Also beats back Republican cuts to Social Security, Medicare, Affordable Care Act, and, surprising to me, the climate provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act (Republicans really wanted to gut those).
- Deal will last for two years, beyond next presidential election. This is a huge deal, undermining Republican efforts to crash the economy right before the 2024 election, allowing them to try and blame President Joe Biden for the chaos.
Oh, and one other thing: This deal supersedes the appropriations process for this year and next, removing yet another hostage from the Republican Party’s toolbox. For a House caucus with dreams of austere and severe government cutbacks, this is a devastating fizzle.
None of this is great for us, of course, but we lost the House to a bunch of nihilists. We were going to lose all of this and probably more in budget negotiations later this year anyway. This deal guarantees that the cuts won’t be anywhere as deep as Republicans hoped, while removing a dangerous weapon from their hands ahead of the 2024 election.
We can argue that Biden shouldn’t have engaged in this battle when the 14th Amendment seems as clear as it is. But invoking it would’ve crashed the markets (they hate “uncertainty”), and that economic uncertainty would’ve lasted through the whole legal process, only to end up at an arch-conservative and hyperpartisan Supreme Court.
It’s a shitty precedent, to be sure, but again, all of these cuts would’ve happened anyway. They’re relatively shallow cuts, and now Republicans can’t seek even deeper ones for the duration of this Congress. Our job is to make sure we win next year, get our trifecta back, and eliminate the debt limit entirely.
And if you’re wondering, “Is Kos full of shit, and trying to sell us a shit sandwich?” Well, just look at the muted Democratic reaction, compared to the Republicans.
Here is MAGA Rep. Chip Roy analyzing the deal:
1) Debt ceiling set til 1/1/2025 - which means unknown debt increase - but $4 Trillion is a good estimate...
2) Debt Ceiling “Deal” totally scraps the $131BB in cuts to return bureaucracy to pre-COVID levels in favor of what appears to be effectively flat spending (down or up a little) - at the bloated 2023 Omnibus spending level, jammed through in a rush in December…
3) Debt Ceiling “Deal” abandons work requirements for Medicaid
4) Deal abandons our repeal of the so-called Inflation Reduction Act tax-credit crony giveaways - which Goldman Sachs says costs $1.2 Trillion. [Climate provisions]
…The deal abandons inclusion of the very powerful anti-regulatory REINS Act (which we just passed through House Judiciary as well) in favor of a form of administrative pay-go which is relatively toothless and/or able to be waived...
…The deal abandons full repeal of Biden’s unlawful student loan bailouts - forcing only a re-start to a small number while leaving in place $400 billion+ in loan forgiveness and punting our constitutional duty to the Court…
…The deal keeps full $80BB expansion of the IRS and the 87,000 employees it funds to target poor/minority 3-5x more - except for $1.9BB for this year… [This is different than the $10B cut others are saying are in the deal]
…The deal does claw back $29BB remaining of the COVID unobligated funding which is used as part of the budget games...
…Does nothing for the border. Does nothing regarding pistol braces. Does nothing regarding Presidential overreach. And in many ways kills our leverage to get them through the appropriations process...
I’m telling you, losing their ability to push for more pain through the appropriations process is a brutal loss for them. The resulting anti-McCarthy fury is glorious.
The hysteria is amazing, as is them calling it a “surrender” to Biden.
Funny how they lost to a guy they claim is “sleepy” and senile.
Really curious to see what the final numbers are on IRS funding, because if Roy is right, then it’s even less of a loss than imagined. The reports have said $10 billion of the $80 billion appropriated. Roy says only $1.9 billion cut. That’s a big difference.
In either case, it’s a great opportunity to troll conservatives:
This is Trump’s former budget director:
The Rules Committee, which has 13 members, decides which bills come to the House floor. Seems like the three a-holes are more than offset by the four Democrats on the committee, but I’m not particularly well-versed in parliamentary rules and procedures.
Just as interestingly, will the Freedom Caucus file a motion to vacate the Speaker’s office, stripping McCarthy of his gavel? There will certainly be fireworks this week.
