One of the most confounding political aspects of the economy is the fact that public perception often doesn't align with the actual data.
In fact, heading into last year's midterms, reporting was riddled with doomsday predictions for Democrats due to polling showing inflation and the state of the economy consistently topping voter concerns. By November 2022, President Joe Biden had created more jobs in his first two years than any president in history, including 735,000 manufacturing jobs, and the average gas price had fallen from a peak of $4.99 in mid-June to slightly north of $3.80 by early November. Yet 61% of registered voters still viewed the economy as "getting worse" on Election Day, while just 17% said it was "getting better," net -44 points in Civiqs tracking of the issue.
Fast forward to summer 2023 and Americans appear to finally be warming to the economy as U.S. economic indicators consistently improve: inflation continues to ease, the U.S. economy added a whopping 339,000 jobs in May, the unemployment rate remains at historic lows, and the White House managed to wrangle House Republicans into averting a U.S. debt default and the ensuing economic calamity.
Annual manufacturing construction is also on pace to be roughly $190 billion this year compared to less than $100 billion for the entirety of the 2010s. As CNN analyst Ronald Brownstein quipped of the news: "Coming to a swing state TV ad near you."
In Civiqs tracking, perceptions of the economy have improved roughly 10 points since last November to net -35 and are trending in the right direction. Though 56% of voters still say the economy is getting worse, that's the lowest the number has been in over a year and a half.
Another measure of consumer confidence, the Michigan consumer sentiment index, shows increased optimism about the economy with the index rising 8 points in June to 63.9—its highest level in four months. Other Civiqs measures are also trending in a positive direction. Biden's numbers on the question of whether he's doing enough to create new jobs are the best of his entire presidency despite still being underwater at 39% yes-50% no, but again, moving in the right direction.
Another hopeful sign for Democrats: They're besting Republicans by 9 points on the question of which party is “more concerned with the needs of people like you,” 42% Democrats-33% Republicans. While Democrats consistently win on that issue, Republicans had narrowed the gap to just 3 points last summer.
Perhaps the biggest problem for Democrats on the economy is that old habits die hard and voters seem to continue to have a clearer, if outdated, understanding of the Republican message on the economy. That dynamic really came through in several recent Navigator focus groups of independents and soft partisans represented by Republicans in swing districts in Arizona (AZ-1), New York (NY-19), and Wisconsin (WI-1). Navigator writes:
When asked about the Democratic position on the economy, there was a lack of clarity, with some participants citing spending or raising taxes on the “top one percent.” Conversely, the Republican vision on the economy was much more consistent: lower taxes, less regulation, and reducing government spending.
The most actionable insight from the focus groups was just how unpopular the voting records of vulnerable GOP members are. "Many participants described their representative as 'crooked' or 'lacking empathy' after reading about their actions and voting records over the past few years," writes Navigator. WI-1 voters, for instance, were told their congressman, Rep. Bryan Steil, voted against capping the price of insulin; against giving Medicare the power to negotiate lower prescription drug prices; and for massive cuts to law enforcement, public school, veterans’ benefits, and food for families who can’t afford it. When one WI-1 woman was asked what animal her representative would be if they were an animal, she stated: “I mean, obviously a snake.”
We are joined by Christina Reynolds of Emily’s List. Reynolds is the Senior Vice President of Communications and Content at the progressive organization that works on getting women elected to office. Reynolds talks about what she is seeing up and down the ballot this election cycle on the anniversary of the outrageous Supreme Court Decision to take away the reproductive protections of Roe v. Wade.
