The chaotic developments in Russia are confusing, as are the consequences. I tried here to put all the facts together into a small enough package that they can all be considered together without exploding the brain. Then comes the speculation.
- Prigozhin screamed about Russian military incompetence and corruption.
- Prigozhin exposed Putin's big lie. Ukraine was no real threat to Russia.
- Prigozhin proclaimed a putsch and marched on Moscow.
- Putin called him a traitor and promised retribution.
- No military forces opposed Prigozhin. Some openly sided with him.
- Prigozhin suddenly stood down for no apparent reason.
- Putin agreed to let Prigozhin go into Belarus exile without punishment, and allow Wagner troops to join the Russian army if wanted.
- Prigozhin later claimed he was only trying to save the Wagner Group from subordination to incompetent and corrupt Russian military command.
- Status of Wagner is unknown. Troops are waiting in their barracks.
- Status of Prigozhin is unknown, but his Telegram channel is working.
- Russian defense minister and top general remain out of view.
Biggest Mysteries
- Prigozhin broke off his attack for no apparent reason. Meduza says that he failed to get adequate support from military leaders. Others speculate about a hidden deal or payoff, or promises that he could continue to lead Wagner in its many lucrative African projects.
- Putin and his top staffers disappeared for many hours during the Wagner threat. Was he preparing to flee if a deal could not be reached?
- Prigozhin exile in Belarus? Belarus is no safe haven.
Speculation
- Russian defense minister and top general will remain in place for a respectable time and then be replaced — not to seem part of a deal.
- Wagner cannot be left intact, but if distributed to other units, the most effective Russian force is gone. Most soldiers may refuse to sign on.
- Putin has shown that he has no real backing from the military.
- Russian Federation may break apart because Putin has no power to stop this.
- Moral of Russian army in Ukraine will sink further: What are we fighting for?
- Likelihood of Ukraine early military victories is increased.
- Foreign backers and fence-sitters must recalculate their Putin positions.
- Putin is no strong and savvy dictator, but weak and stupid. Did he create his own lies or was he misled by bootlickers saying what he wanted to hear?
- Putin is unlikely to survive. Death, prison, Hague, exile in N. Korea?
https://meduza.io/en/feature/2023/06/25/putin-was-nowhere-to-be-found?utm_source=email&utm_medium=briefly&utm_campaign=2023-06-27
Meduza’s sources believe that Prigozhin probably realized that “he’d gone too far” and “prospects for his column to continue to advance were dim.” At that point, his fighters were already approaching the Oka River, where the Russian army and the National Guard had set up their first line of defense. Despite Prigozhin’s claims that “half the army” was ready to join him, Wagner received no additional support from soldiers in the first hours of the uprising.
