Russia has blown the vast dam above Kherson, risking meltdown at the Zaporizhzhia NPP. There’s more war crime and ecocide with genocidal intent, as we try to respect the OpSec of the counteroffensive.
The Ukrainians want to achieve operational surprise,
says Karolina Hird, a Russia analyst at ISW—a strategy that involves maintaining the fog of war as long as strategically possible. As for when we’ll know that the counteroffensive has begun, Hird says that there isn’t likely to be a single moment or event. “Defining one set of tactical actions as ‘the counteroffensive’ doesn’t really track with the reality on the ground,” she says, noting that past Ukrainian efforts to reclaim Russian-occupied territory were not limited to single offensive actions. “This counteroffensive, whenever it may be, will be a series of simultaneous and successive operations that happen across the entire theater.”
time.com/…
Asked what the counterattack would look like, US special forces commander Colonel Seth Krummrich told Al Jazeera, “I think you’ll get a spoiling attack or a distraction attack. And then you’ll get one or two major punches.
“But I think we have to be careful not to oversell the counteroffensive. It is only 12 battalions. There’s only so much you can do with that. I think we’re going to see small to midsize gains.”
Nine of Ukraine’s 12 mechanised battalions have been trained by NATO militaries and are expected to form the spearhead of the counterstrike.
[...]
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria: “We do believe this counteroffensive will allow Ukraine to take strategically significant territory back,” but he did not suggest it would be a final blow to Russia.
“We have a few more years of this,” Krummrich, now vice president at Global Guardian, a security consultancy, agreed.
“All Ukraine has to do is keep the pressure on,” he said. “Don’t try to grab Crimea tomorrow. This Russian offensive will collapse under its own weight. It’s unsustainable.”
www.aljazeera.com/...
The Ukrainian girl in Mykola Pymonenko's (1862-1912) painting asks "Are you kidding me?
- The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherson frontline sector in southern Ukraine.
- Ukrainian officials continued to accuse Russian forces of destroying the KHPP dam out of fear that Ukrainian forces would land on the east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
- The New York Times (NYT) reported that engineering and munitions experts believe that a deliberate explosion was the likely cause of KHPP dam’s collapse on June 6.
- Russian forces and occupation authorities are responding to the flooding in Kherson Oblast with a great degree of disorganization and thereby exacerbating harm to the civilian population of occupied areas.
- Select Wagner Group-affiliated Russian senior military officers continue to posture as effective commanders to appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin by capitalizing on high-profile military events.
- The pro-Teplinsky interview is likely part of an information operation aimed at undermining the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).
- Wagner-affiliated commanders’ reactive public relations campaigns may not be sufficient to deflect from battlefield realities.
- Russian and Ukrainian officials each accused the other state of damaging an ammonia pipeline that runs through Kharkiv Oblast and causing an ammonia leak.
- Russian forces continued to conduct ground attacks around Kreminna.
- Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction as of June 7.
- Russian forces continued limited ground attacks along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
- Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts on June 7.
- Russian and Ukrainian forces reportedly engaged in skirmishes in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
- Russian authorities continue to restrict international travel for those eligible for military service.
- Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to establish patronage programs between Russian regions and occupied territories in order to integrate occupied territories into Russia.
www.understandingwar.org/...
#ISW reported #russia mining the dam in October 2022 (see 19/10/2022 and 20/10/2022). They also note that Russian occupiers evacuated equipment and collaborators from the settlements that would be flooded before they blew up the dam:
The destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant (KHPP) dam is significantly changing the geography and topography of the Kherson frontline sector in southern Ukraine. Near-infrared (NIR) imagery captured at 0400 am ET on June 7 indicates that the flooding is heavily disrupting Russian prepared defensive positions on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River – especially affecting Russian first-line positions in Hola Prystan and Oleshky. Various sources reported that Oleshky, Hola Prystan, Kozacha Laheri, and Dnipryany are almost entirely flooded with water levels rising to the height of a one-story buildings in some areas.[1] The Ukrainian headquarters established to remediate the consequences of the dam’s destruction reported that as of June 7 29 settlements are partially or fully flooded, 19 of which are located on the Ukrainian-controlled territory and 10 on Russian occupied territories.[2] Russian sources published footage indicating that water had begun receding in Nova Kakhovka and had dropped by 30cm.[3] Russian sources also claimed that water levels decreased by three to four meters in some areas from a high of 10 meters.[4] Water levels in nearby Mykolaiv City reportedly increased by 70cm as of June 7.[5] Flooding will likely worsen and further change the geography in Kherson Oblast over the next 72 hours.
www.understandingwar.org/...
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Luhansk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast)
Russian and Ukrainian officials each accused the other state of damaging an ammonia pipeline that runs through Kharkiv Oblast and of causing an ammonia leak. Geolocated footage shows a large cloud of ammonia leaking from a section of the Togliatti-Odesa ammonia pipeline just south of Masyutivka, Kharkiv Oblast (12km northeast of Kupyansk).[30] Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleh Synehubov reported that Russian forces fired six shells at the pipeline and that Russian forces previously targeted the pipeline with artillery fire on June 5 and 6.[31] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces deliberately mined the area at night on June 5.[32] Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) Spokesperson Maria Zakharova claimed that repairs to the pipeline will take one to three months.[33] Russian and Ukrainian forces have recently conducted engagements near Masyutivka.[34] ISW has previously reported that Russian officials have set informational conditions to accuse Ukraine of using chemical weapons or of conducting false flag attacks using chemical or radiological weapons.[35]
www.understandingwar.org/…
Satellite images show scale of destruction in Ukraine’s Bakhmut
Ukraine says Russia eases attacks on Bakhmut to regroup
Bakhmut is in ruins. What’s next for Ukraine?
Bakhmut falls silent as Russia and Ukraine trade air raids
Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Donetsk Oblast (Russian Objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Click here to read ISW’s retrospective analysis on the Battle for Bakhmut.
Ukrainian officials indicated that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction as of June 7. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on June 7 that Ukrainian forces near Bakhmut have transferred from defensive to offensive operations and have advanced from 200 to 1,000m in various unspecified areas over the past day.[38] Malyar also noted that Russian forces are deploying reserves to Bakhmut to prepare to conduct a defense-in-depth and that some Wagner elements are remaining in the Russian rear.[39] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian forces are advancing on the flanks of Bakhmut and that Russian forces are losing certain unspecified positions.[40]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks on the administrative border between Donetsk and Zaporizhia oblasts on June 7. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks southwest of Velyka Novosilka and reiterated that Russian forces control Novodonetske (12km southeast of Velyka Novosilka).[47] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled renewed Ukrainian attacks on Novodonetske on June 6 and claimed that Ukrainian forces had “varying successes” southwest of Velyka Novosilka.[48]
www.understandingwar.org/...
https://t.co/oe6rzBBXEV
Who controls the dam? Russia
- Burst dam threatens humanitarian, environmental disaster
- Could hobble long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive
- Kyiv, Moscow trade blame for collapse of massive dam
- Incident endangers farmland, ecosystems, biodiversity
- Officials play down threat to nuclear plant cooling
LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - The breach of a huge dam on the front-line Dnipro river has muddied the picture for a much-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russian invaders and threatens an environmental disaster for civilians living in the war zone.
[...]
With water levels still rising, officials and analysts have begun to count the human and environmental costs for one of the world's most fertile agricultural countries, saying settlements, thousands of people and some rare wildlife species are at risk.
At least 150 tonnes of oil from the dam have leaked into the Dnipro, Ukrainian Environment Minister Ruslan Strilets told a press briefing, and the environmental damage had been estimated at 50 million euros ($53.8 million).
The dam's collapse occurred just as Ukraine was poised to launch a counteroffensive and could complicate the advance of its forces in any assault, analysts said, though Kyiv has not divulged in which direction it plans to strike.
"Bearing in mind Russia is on the strategic defensive and Ukraine on the strategic offensive, in the short term it's an advantage to Russia, definitely," said Ben Barry, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"It'll help the Russians until the water subsides because it makes it more difficult for Ukraine to do assault river crossings," he said in a phone interview.
The floodtide inundating the region will prevent the use of heavy weaponry such as tanks for at least a month, said Maciej Matysiak, security expert at the Stratpoints Foundation and ex-deputy chief of Polish military counter-intelligence.
"(This) creates a very good defending position for Russians who expect Ukrainian offensive activity,” Matysiak said.
www.reuters.com/...
https://t.co/6gO3TJR32L
2/ Russian defenses have been constructed along dominant heights and ridgelines. Defenses have been established at depth of 25-30km from Russian forward line of friendly troops (FLOT) all the way to the city of Tokmak.
3/ There are several distinct layers or defensive zones. Zone 1: first 3-4km from the RuFLOT is the forward security zone consisting of individual squad or platoon outposts and individual company strongpoints.
4/ Zone 2: first defensive line, 2-3km deep. Company trenches and strongpoints arranged along key terrain features in continuous line. This zone has seen recent additions and is constantly being improved. Villages of Kopani and Robotyne form the linchpins of this position.
5/ Zone 3: 4-5km deep zone with reserve- and possible decoy positions. This zone is also where majority of the local Russian artillery and mechanized reserves will be maneuvering behind the first defense line. Multiple shelter areas for vehicles and equipment observed.
6/ Zone 4: Prepared main defensive line. Massive multilayered trench lines with anti-tank ditches and dragons’ teeth obstacles. Extensive minefields are likely. These fortifications form nearly uniformly continuous defensive belt across the front. Built 3-4km deep.
7/ Zone 5: Reserve and fallback positions behind the main defensive line (zone 3). Zone 6: Town of Tokmak and the surrounding AT-ditch and strongpoints form the last fallback and reserve position on this sector, prepared for all-around defense.
8/ I have complied a collection of samples of different field fortification types and examples from across this sector. Note that the high resolution Pléiades Neo images are from 13thMAR 23 so they are quite old at this point. Many fortifications were under construction.
9/ 1: Forwardmost Russian platoon (+) strongpoint 600m wide. 2: 1,20km company (-) trench line. 3: 500m wide trench in tree line + additional trenches under construction. 4: Two squad or section outposts guarding a gap between positions.
10/ 5: Company trench system 1600m wide under construction. 6: Anti-tank ditch at the northern edge of Robotyne + small squad strongpoints. 7: Trenches, dugouts, and AT-ditches west of Robotyne. 8: Trenches under construction, northern edge of Kopani.
11/ 9: Reserve trench under construction south of Robotyne. 10: Trenches and dugouts being constructed on heights overlooking Rivne. 11: Two 300m wide platoon strongpoints under construction. 12. 300m wide platoon strongpoint between Solodka Balka and Novoprokopivka.
12/ 13: Around Solodka Balka, 11km behind the RuFLOT, a multilayered main defensive line is being constructed. It comprises of AT-ditches, dragons teeth obstacles, minefields, and multiple consecutive trench lines at average depth of 2-3km.
13/ Notice the large number of dugouts and vehicle firing positions being constructed. These positions have been completed since then. Trenches in the sample pictures 13a and 13b are roughly 3km in width and could serve as battalion strongpoint.
14/ 14-15: as can be seen from this sentinel image, the Russian trench lines and fortifications continue on both sides of Solodka Balka strongpoint with multiple fallback positions and reserve trenches. Russians can deploy multiple battalions of infantry along this defensive belt
15/ Finally before Tokmak, there is a second robust reserve line 6-7km behind Solodka Balka. Tokmak is also surrounded by circular AT-ditch and multiple separate strongpoints. Village of Ocheretuvate is also being fortified for all-around defense.
15/ Finally before Tokmak, there is a second robust reserve line 6-7km behind Solodka Balka. Tokmak is also surrounded by circular AT-ditch and multiple separate strongpoints. Village of Ocheretuvate is also being fortified for all-around defense.
16/ But that’s enough for today. You can find more about the Russian fortifications on our map at: scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-…
(From the sidebar click “Russian defence lines”)
17/ Finally we would like to thank
@wihurinrahasto for funding our research and enabling us to purchase commercial satellite imagery. This analysis would not have been possible without them. This thread will be followed by tactical-operational analysis at later date.
• • •
RFE/RL: The final question will be me trying to spot some silver lining. You envisage a scenario where Putin faces a defeat on the battlefield and losing Crimea, and he orders a tactical nuclear strike because its his reign and his life at stake, right? But is the order carried out, necessarily? What are the chances that he will be told, "It's your head on the line, not ours, and not Russia's"? Can he risk that?
Kevin Ryan: Putin would risk such a situation. But your suggestion of what would happen if he did give such an order is a good question. It is always possible, especially in the Russian system, that somebody could interrupt that order -- either at the Putin level and his inner circle or at the level of Shoigu, [General Valery] Gerasimov, and the two generals who would have to carry it out, Generals Oleg Salyukov (who is in charge of ground forces) and [Sergei] Surovikin (who is in charge of Russia's invasion forces in Ukraine).
It's possible that they could decide that "this is too far, and we must stop it." But it's not likely that they would stop it. They have been hand-selected since January to lead this operation. In January, Putin put the three generals who run his tactical nuclear forces in charge of this operation. They are the most loyal. Their reputations, their careers, their lives depend on following his orders.
www.rferl.org/...
