Maybe I’m imagining this, but I think I just saw the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) execute the following combination punch:
Step 1) Attack various targets all over Crimea using lots of inexpensive drones. Note where the air defenses are. Repeat as needed.
Step 2) In a second wave, send over better quality missiles and drones intended to achieve “hard kills” (destroy) as many high value Air Defense (AD) sites as possible. Pay particular attention to those radars and systems capable of detecting stealth cruise missiles at a distance. That would be the S-400 systems. Also repeat as needed.
Step 3) A day or two later, having taken out the AD systems capable of intercepting your most stealthy and accurate missiles, packing a Big Punch, send in a wave of those missiles to devastate the Russian Black Sea fleet. Do this a couple of times on successive days.
Step 4) Having destroyed multiple assets of very high value to the Russian Navy, you know the top brass from said navy will be meeting. Commanders will need to work out how to stem the losses and backfill the missing AD and naval systems. Tactics and strategies will need to be re-thought. Figure out, perhaps using human intelligence, figure out where and when one of those conferences will take place.
Step 5) Bomb the crap out of the meeting place. Many of the leaders of the Black Sea Fleet will be in one room. Blow up that room. You will have wiped out the brain trust of the Russian Navy at the very moment when the experience and insight of these leaders is most needed.
This is exactly what I think we have just seen play out in Crimea. The Ukrainian strategy will now be to starve, strangle and attrit the Russian forces. Then they invade.
Step 6) is to make it as difficult as possible for the Russians to supply Crimea from the sea.
Step 7) is to take out the Kerch bridge, and others, and just generally make it as difficult as possible for the Russians to supply Crimea from the land.
Step 8) is, of course, assault and liberation.
What say you, Kossacks? I would love to get some feedback on this.
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UPDATE: Reporting From Ukraine makes, in the linked video, somewhat similar speculations. The AFU depleting the AD systems is mentioned, and about herding the Russian BSF (Black Sea Fleet) commanders into a building where they could be targeted. That claim is about 30 seconds in.’
Also, Captainfactoid is just my user name. I’m not a captain.
