The Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from the Daily Kos Elections team.
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Leading Off
● NM-Sen: One of the most conservative Democrats in the Land of Enchantment is now a Republican—and he's running for the Senate. Former Bernalillo County Sheriff Manny Gonzales announced Wednesday that he would take on Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich almost four years after the senator called for his resignation.
Gonzales had an uneasy relationship with progressives even before he appeared at a White House event in 2020 when Donald Trump announced he was deploying federal agents to Albuquerque. But while the sheriff's campaign to lead that city the following year proved to be a disaster, Gonzales is now hoping that the state at large will be more receptive to his brand of politics.
However, an emerging gun conspiracy case already threatens to overshadow everything. Read more about the scandal at Daily Kos Elections—including why Gonzales' mayoral campaign may be best remembered for an incident involving a drone and a sex toy.
The Downballot
● We've got so, so many elections coming up in 2024, and dammit, we're going to cover them all! On this week's episode of "The Downballot," co-hosts David Nir and David Beard get the year started with an overview of the battleground for [deep breath] the Senate, the House, governorships, state legislatures, and state supreme courts. Consider this your audio cheat sheet for November's top races, but don't worry, we'll be covering plenty more as the cycle unfolds.
The Davids also discuss the recent string of House GOP retirements—both what they say about the state of the Republican caucus and what they mean for 2024. Then there's a new effort by activists in Ohio to place a measure on the ballot that would crap down on Republican voter suppression by enacting extensive protections for the right to vote. And finally, we dive into the latest GOP gerrymanders in Georgia, which have pushed two Black Democratic women into running for the same seat.
Subscribe to "The Downballot" on Apple Podcasts to make sure you never miss a show. You'll find a transcript of this week's episode right here by noon Eastern time. New episodes every Thursday morning!
4Q Fundraising
- MS-Sen: Roger Wicker (R-inc): $1 million raised, $5.3 million cash on hand
- IN-Gov: Suzanne Crouch (R): $1.3 million raised (in six months)
- AZ-08: Abe Hamadeh (R): $290,000 raised
- IA-02: Ashley Hinson (R-inc): $550,000 raised, $1.4 million cash on hand
- MT-02: Troy Downing (R): $194,000 raised, additional $150,000 self-funded
- NJ-05: Josh Gottheimer (D-inc): $1.5 million raised, $17 million cash on hand
- NY-17: Mondaire Jones (D): $1 million raised, $1.55 million cash on hand
Senate
● AZ-Sen: Public Policy Polling's survey for Replace Sinema PAC shows a 1-point race between Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican conspiracy theorist Kari Lake whether or not independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema runs, though her presence impacts which one holds that tiny edge. The Democratic firm finds Gallego with a 36-35 edge in a three-way race, with Sinema taking 17%; in a head-to-head matchup, however, Lake leads 46-45.
● PA-Sen: Quinnipiac University finds Democratic incumbent Bob Casey besting wealthy Republican Dave McCormick 53-43, an improvement from the senator's 50-44 edge in the school's October poll. The sample for the latest survey shows Joe Biden edging out Donald Trump 49-46 in a two-way race and 41-39 when third-party and independent candidates are included.
House
● AL-01: A super PAC called South Alabama Conservatives PAC has begun an ad campaign against Rep. Barry Moore in what appears to be the first negative television commercial of the March 5 GOP primary between Moore and fellow incumbent Jerry Carl, who are running against each other due to court-ordered redistricting. The group says it plans to spend $50,000 a week in the Mobile media market, which includes all of Carl's existing 1st District but almost none of the 2nd District that Moore currently serves.
The opening piece, though, is anything but the stuff of ad legends. The viewer is treated to essentially nothing but 30 seconds of a picture of Moore in front of a red backdrop and a QR code that directs anyone bored enough to scan it to an anti-Moore website. The narrator, meanwhile, argues that Moore is "siding with Biden Democrats" and raising taxes, though he doesn't provide any details.
Moore, meanwhile, is spending a reported $96,000 on his own first TV spot, which comes over a month after Carl first took to the airwaves. Moore's piece touts him as a conservative veteran, and while unexciting, there's also nary a QR code in sight.
● CA-16: Retiring Democratic Rep. Anna Eshoo on Wednesday endorsed Santa Clara County Supervisor Joe Simitian in the packed March 5 top-two primary to replace her.
● CO-03: Attorney Jeff Hurd has earned the backing of the 3rd District's last two Republican congressmen, Scott McInnis and Scott Tipton, though neither Scott ended his electoral career on a high note. McInnis, who did not seek reelection in 2004, failed to secure the 2010 nomination for governor after he was accused of plagiarism. Tipton, meanwhile, lost renomination to Lauren Boebert in a 2020 shocker; Boebert is now running in the 4th District.
● CO-04: Police in the town of Silt filed six criminal charges against Jayson Boebert on Tuesday, and three of them relate to the confrontation that took place over the weekend between him and his ex-wife, Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert. The remaining three involve a physical conflict they say took place two days prior between him and their 18-year-old son. The police also dismissed Jayson Boebert's allegations that the congresswoman punched as "unfounded."
● CO-05: Two more Republicans have joined the race to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Doug Lamborn: conservative radio host Jeff Crank, who lost a pair of bruising primaries to Lamborn in 2006 and 2008, and state Sen. Bob Gardner. Former state Rep. Dan Nordberg, meanwhile, says he'll sit the contest out.
Crank launched his new effort with a pointed attack at the third major Republican in the race, state party chair Dave Williams. "[W]e’ve got to rebuild a Republican Party so that we are out there helping win and defeat Democrats—rather than fighting Republicans," said Crank, who also characterized the party as "dysfunctional."
Gardner, meanwhile, touted himself as a bipartisan problem solver, which isn't usually a pitch that resonates with GOP primary voters. "I do know how to work with people who agree with me completely, and how to work with people who disagree with me almost completely, to get things done," the state senator declared, "and I think that’s what people are asking their legislators to do now—to stop what I would call performative politics and do what they were elected to do."
Gardner also told Colorado Politics that he'd collect signatures to reach the June 25 Republican primary rather than compete at the party convention. "Some in party circles say, 'You didn’t go through the assembly,'" he said, before arguing that gathering petitions gave him the chance to talk to voters.
● GA-03: Former state Rep. Philip Singleton announced Wednesday that he would campaign to replace retiring Rep. Drew Ferguson, whom he tried to beat in a 2018 Republican primary for the last version of this safely red seat. Singleton, who served with the Army in Iraq and Afghanistan, lost that contest against the establishment-aligned congressman 74-26, but he soon found a different way to make trouble for his party's leaders.
Singleton campaigned the following year in a special election for a seat in the state House, and the all-GOP runoff turned into a proxy war between two branches of the party. State House Speaker David Ralston and his allies supported Marcy Westmoreland Sakrison, the daughter of former Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, while Singleton campaigned as an anti-Ralston option.
Singleton prevailed 59-41, and he celebrated his win by publishing a piece in the conservative Washington Times titled, "How I beat the Republican establishment in deep-red Georgia." His tenure didn't last long, however, as the party leadership passed a gerrymander in 2021 that endangered Singleton and other Ralston foes. Singleton, who called the new map "a shocking betrayal" of conservatives, didn't seek reelection the following year, but he quickly got a new job as chief of staff to 6th District Rep. Rich McCormick. (Ralston died shortly after the 2022 elections.)
● IN-06: State Rep. Mike Speedy said on Tuesday night that he would campaign to succeed Rep. Greg Pence, a fellow Republican who announced his retirement earlier in the day. Speedy, the Indianapolis Star wrote in 2022, is an ardent conservative who opposed a bill restricting COVID vaccine requirements because he didn't think it was restrictive enough.
● ME-02: State Rep. Austin Theriault on Wednesday publicized an endorsement from Speaker Mike Johnson for his campaign to take on Democratic Rep. Jared Golden. Theriault's main foe in the June 11 Republican primary is fellow state Rep. Mike Soboleski.
● MT-02: State Senate President Pro Tempore Ken Bogner announced Tuesday that he was running for the safely red seat held by his fellow Republican, prospective Senate candidate Matt Rosendale, though he doesn't appear to have addressed if he'd keep campaigning should Rosendale seek reelection. The filing deadline is March 11, and while the congressman has spent the better part of the year strongly hinting that he wants to avenge his close 2018 loss to Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, he has yet to commit to anything.
Bogner, however, isn't the only Republican in eastern Montana who has decided that they can't simply wait for Rosendale to eventually make up his mind. State Auditor Troy Downing launched his own effort in early November, and he's disclosed that he raised $194,000 during his opening quarter and self-funded another $150,000.
Former state Sen. Ed Walker began campaigning earlier in the fall, and like Bogner and Downing, he doesn't seem to have indicated that he'd defer to Rosendale. But state Superintendent of Public Instruction Elsie Arntzen, who formed an exploratory in August, has said she won't run against the congressman. The primary is June 4.
● NY-03: AdImpact reports that the DCCC and House Majority PAC have spent or reserved a combined $5.9 million on advertising to support former Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi, while the only major conservative independent expenditure remains the $800,000 that the NRCC has booked to aid Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip. There's been considerably less action from the candidates a month ahead of the Feb. 13 special: Suozzi has outspent Pilip $300,000 to $200,000, while the GOP nominee and the NRCC have used another $100,000 on a joint buy.
● WV-02: Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Chris Walker announced this week that he would oppose state Treasurer Riley Moore, who until now has been on a glide path to replace GOP Senate candidate Alex Mooney, in the May 14 Republican primary for this dark red seat.
Walker unsubtly contrasted himself with Moore, who is the nephew of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito and the grandson of the late Gov. Arch Moore, by declaring, "I wasn’t born into money or a political dynasty. My life is the story of hard work and choosing what is right." The New York City native, who would be the first Black person to represent the Mountain State in Congress, continued, "I’m even a West Virginian by choice. I put down roots here because West Virginia is different."
Moore began running for this constituency, which encompasses the northern part of the state, in November of 2022, and he soon picked up endorsements from Mooney, then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, and Moore Capito. All of his opponents until now have been of the Some Dude variety, and Walker only has a few months to put together a stronger effort.
Legislatures
● ND Redistricting: Republican Secretary of State Michael Howe's office has announced that North Dakota will proceed with administering the 2024 elections using the new legislative districts that a federal court adopted on Monday to remedy discrimination against Native American voters.
Howe is still appealing the court's November ruling that struck down the GOP-drawn maps for violating the Voting Rights Act. However, the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has refused to stay the lower court's decision while his appeal is ongoing, meaning it would only affect future elections.
Prosecutors & Sheriffs
● Hillsborough County, FL State Attorney: A federal appeals court unexpectedly gave Democrat Andrew Warren some welcome news on Wednesday in his lawsuit to regain the office that Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis permanently suspended him from in 2022, though the decision doesn't necessarily mean he will be reinstated. Warren, however, is hoping that the ruling will allow him to seek another term as the top prosecutor in Hillsborough County, Florida, without fear of being suspended again, just days after he said he would not try to reclaim his post at the ballot box.
A three-judge panel of the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals determined that U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle had incorrectly concluded last year that several of the factors that had "motivated DeSantis to suspend Warren"—such as Warren's opposition to prosecuting individuals who obtain or provide abortions—were not protected by the First Amendment.
The appellate judges ordered the lower court to consider whether DeSantis would still have removed Warren from office based only on a smaller set of reasons that did not constitute protected speech. These include a policy Warren instituted aimed at reducing the number of prosecutions of bicyclists, a disproportionate number of whom were Black.
The decision came just two days after Warren announced he wouldn't challenge the Republican whom DeSantis picked to replace him, Suzy Lopez, because of what he called the "high risk" the governor would suspend him a second time if he were to win. Immediately after the 11th Circuit handed down its decision, though, Warren asked the appeals court to expedite his case, saying in a filing that his "decision about whether to run for reelection as State Attorney depends in significant part on the outcome of this litigation."
● Maricopa County, AZ Sheriff: Democratic incumbent Paul Penzone officially notified the county Board of Supervisors this week that Friday will be his final day as sheriff for America's fourth-largest county. Penzone, whose post is up this fall, announced in October that he'd resign, and he later said he'd take a position with the insurer Blue Cross Blue Shield.
State law requires the Board of Supervisors to select another Democrat to succeed Penzone even though Republicans enjoy a 4-1 majority on the body. Applicants have until Jan. 19 to apply, and the county says the eventual pick will serve until a new sheriff is elected in November. Supervisor Steve Gallardo, who is the only Democrat, said in October he wants the appointee to be an "effective candidate" for a full four-year term, though his Republican colleagues may prefer someone who won't be on the ballot.
● Milwaukee County, WI District Attorney: Kent Lovern announced Wednesday that he would run to replace his boss and fellow Democrat, retiring Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm. Chisholm quickly endorsed his top deputy, and it remains to be seen if Lovern will face any serious intra-party opposition in the Aug. 13 Democratic primary in this dark blue county.
Milwaukee County Circuit Judge David Borowski told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel this week that he was interested in campaigning to replace Chisholm, whom he argued hasn't done an effective job combating crime. However, Borowski added that he'd only run if the Republican-controlled state legislature approved a bill that would allow sitting judges like himself to run for nonjudicial offices. The candidate filing deadline isn't until June 3.
Ad Roundup
Correction: This piece incorrectly stated that the 11th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that U.S. District Judge Robert Hinkle had wrongly concluded he lacked the authority to reinstate Democrat Andrew Warren as state attorney in Hillsborough County, Florida. Rather, the appeals court ruled that Hinkle had wrongly concluded that certain of Warren’s activities that motivated Gov. Ron DeSantis to suspend him were not protected by the First Amendment. The piece has also been updated to include Warren’s response to the ruling.
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