Cook Political Report Downgrades Ted Cruz's Chances of Re-election

by mastergardener2k

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Tuesday, Oct. 01, 2024 Tuesday, Oct. 01, 2024 at 3:35:50pm PDT

www.cookpolitical.com/…

The Cook Political Report has downgraded Senator Ted Cruz’s chances of re-election in Texas from “likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” after a series of polls has shown Cruz struggling to stay ahead of his Democratic challenger, Colin Allred.

Republican Senator Rick Scott of Florida has had similar problems as his opponent, Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, has become better known.

Presently, Cook Reports continues to rate Rick Scott’s race. as “likely Republican”. The only other GOP incumbent in the same category is Deb Fischer of Nebraska.

For months, the two GOP-held seats on the verge of competitiveness have been Texas and Florida, which have uniquely polarizing incumbents in Sens. Ted Cruz and Rick Scott, respectively. But both states have remained just out of reach for Democrats in recent years, and could be even tougher for Democrats to win in a presidential year than in a midterm cycle.

Both have sat in our Likely Republican column, and Democrats announced last week that they are making a “multimillion dollar investment” for TV advertising in both races. We’ve seen the Texas buys show up so far in coordinated spending, but further spending, or the total amount they’re going to invest, hasn’t been revealed.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com/…

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2024, General election

Polls ending Sept. 30, 2024

Sept. 5-30

400

ActiVote

Allred

48%

52%

Cruz

Sept. 26, 2024

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2024, General election

Sept. 25-26	759	RV	Public Policy Polling	Clean and Prosperous America (PAC)	Allred	46%	47%	Cruz		Cruz	+1
Sept. 25-26	759	RV	Public Policy Polling	Clean and Prosperous America (PAC)	Allred	43%	45%	Cruz	More	Cruz	+2

Sept. 24, 2024

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2024, General election

Sept. 22-24

950

Emerson College

The Hill, Nexstar

Allred

45%

49%

Cruz

Sept. 18, 2024

U.S. Senate, Texas, 2024, General election

Sept. 13-18	1,200	LV	Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation		Allred	45%	48%	Cruz	More	Cruz	+3
Sept. 9-18	2,716	LV	Morning Consult		Allred	45%	44%	Cruz		Allred	+1