It is true that the only poll that counts is the one on election day, and it is my prediction that day will arrive this November here in Texas. In 2018, Beto O’Rourke overperformed the polls, and came within 2.6 percent of knocking off Cruz. Since then, a number of factors have entered the equation which look very good for Colin Allred and not so good for Cruz:
1- The overturning of Roe v. Wade which, in my honest opinion, is the most dominant factor here, is going to cause a few Republican women to either not show up for Cruz, or even vote for Allred. The abandonment of “Stare Decisis” by an extremist Supreme Court, which overturned 50 years of precedence, is a bridge too far for some of them. This already has been borne out by Republican losses in many states since that decision was made.
2- New voter registrations in Texas this year, 18 million, have smashed records, and most of these registrations have come from younger people, people of color, and Hispanics. This has alarmed the Republican Party to such an extent that the Republican organization, True the Vote, has been massively challenging many of these registrations, fortunately to no avail. Does this attempt show a bit of desperation? It is certainly a cause for Republican concern.
3- Ted Cruz drew massive condemnation when, during the 2021 winter breakdown in the Texas power grid that resulted in hundreds of deaths, he traveled to Cancun instead of staying in Texas and doing what he could to help out those he represents. People remember that, and it will reflect in the votes from some of them.
4- Democrats lately have overperformed in just about all polls taken since the dismantling of Roe by the Supreme Court, and have consistently defeated Republicans in special elections. Polling in Texas shows a very close race, with Cruz ahead by 2 points in the aggregate, and one poll showing a one point Allred lead. While polls are just a snapshot at any given moment, the overperformance of polls by Democrats shows that Cruz is indeed beatable, and Allred has, in my opinion, a better than 50-50 chance of flipping this seat.
5- Finally, let’s not forget the coattails of Kamala Harris, which are quite long this year. True, she is not going to win Texas in the presidential race, but she will make the race closer than it has been in years, and force Republicans to spend heavily in the state. This is something the GOP has never before had to do. And this is going to affect downballot races throughout the state, including the Senate race.
Put it all together, and you can stick a fork in turkey Ted Cruz in time for Thanksgiving. His goose is cooked. While Texas will not turn blue this cycle, the process has already begun.
Buh bye, Ted, and good riddance.
