People worry that the war in Ukraine presents a risk of escalating to nuclear war. They are right. But not for the reason they think.
People especially worry that allowing Ukraine to target Russia with American weapons may result in Russia starting a nuclear war. But what if we allow that threat prevent us from helping Ukraine to win?
What if, through fear of Putin’s saber-rattling, we allow him to win in Ukraine? What’s the message to non-nuclear countries? A little history:
After the fall of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was left with 1700 nuclear weapons. Ukraine gave up those weapons in the 90’s in exchange for security assurances from the United States, UK, and Russia. In 2014 and 2022 they were invaded by a nuclear power.
If Russia is successful in conquering Ukraine while Western nations stand by and cluck, what’s the message to non-nuclear countries?
If a future president returns to an America First policy, then:
“With the perception that the United States is pulling back from its overseas presence and commitments, especially in the Middle East, some traditional U.S. friends, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey, are more inclined to hedge their bets, reach out to others like Russia and China, and resist U.S. non-proliferation demands.”
North Korea and Iran are actively pursuing nuclear arsenals along with eight others that already have such arsenals.
A study (entitled “Predicting Proliferation: High Reliability Forecasting Models of Nuclear Proliferation as a Policy and Analytical Aid” funded by the Naval Postgraduate School) concluded that:
“…the presence of a nuclear rival appears to be the strongest predictor of nuclear proliferation.”
If you go down the list of national rivals around the world, the nuclear dominoes will fall.
- Saudi Arabia will match Iran
- South Korea will match North Korea if they don’t feel they can rely on the US.
- Taiwan will start a nuclear program if they don’t feel they can rely on the US.
- Etc.
Who’s next? Keep in mind that Brazil and Argentina had nuclear programs in place before the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty was signed.
When the world feels that it can no longer rely on the community of democratic countries to provide international security, nuclear weapons will proliferate. At some point the world will become a powder keg that the slightest spark will ignite.
Contrary to those shouting restraint and contrition at Ukraine, the greatest risk of nuclear war will be allowing Putin to conquer Ukraine.
