Everyone knew the Democrats would lose the Senate in 2024. The election map spelled doom. As voters headed to the polls, the Democrats would have to defend 21 seats — including four seats held by independents who caucus with Democrats. Adding to the degree of difficulty, three of those 21 seats are in states Trump won in 2020 (Montana, Ohio, West Virginia). And five of them are in swing states (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin).
On the other hand, the Republicans only have to defend 11 seats, none in Biden 2020 states. And none in swing states.
If that isn’t enough of a challenge, Joe Manchin chose to retire. As a result, the Democrats de facto lost West Virginia. So at best, they would have to sweep the rest and leave a 50-50 Senate with a Kamala Harris victory installing Tim Walz as VP, and the deciding vote in the upper chamber as Senate President.
GOP Senators were eyeing the soon-to-be-vacated Republican Senate leadership position (Mitch McConnell is stepping down in November), with the assumption that the new GOP Senate boss would be installed as the Senate Majority leader in the next Congress. One of the aspirants for the position is Ted Cruz. But in a welcome development, the odds, while still slim, are increasing that the Texan will not even be a Senator in 2025.
Ted knows this. And he is starting to panic. In an interview on Newsmax, he explained his predicament.
“Look, there’s no doubt Texas is a battleground today. Chuck Schumer has been explicit. I’m his number one target in the country, and the Democrats are spending over $100 million. Chuck Schumer and George Soros are flooding cash into the state of Texas. There have been multiple polls in the last 33 weeks that show it is a four-point race, a three-point race, a two-point race — and there have been two polls that show it as a one-point race. They are coming after me with everything they got.”
I will grant you that it is common sense for any politician to wage a campaign as if they are in a tie, or even behind their opponent. But I suspect that Ted is truly scared. And he should be. Not only is Cancun Cruz one of the least popular Republicans in Texas, he is riding an unfavorable trend.
In 2000, Cruz’s predecessor, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, won the seat by 33%. In 2012, in his first race, Cruz won by 16%. In his 2018 race, he won by 2.6%. Ted may still be the betting favorite — but he is no lock. (Nor is Rick Scott in Florida.)
In his Newsmax interview, Cruz continued to beg the MAGAs for cash by spouting the same old hackneyed tropes and trotting out the usual suspects.
He slammed his Democratic opponent, the accomplished and photogenic Rep. Colin Allred, as an “extreme left-wing Democrat” who’s “voted with Nancy Pelosi” 100% of the time.
However, Allred is the rare candidate who has been endorsed by the management-friendly US Chamber of Congress and extolled by the AFL-CIO as 100% pro-union. He also voted against Biden on the president’s border bill. In short, he is the sort of centrist Democrat that can win state-wide in Texas.
Adding to his electoral cred — and Cruz knows this well — Allred defeated 11-term Republican incumbent Pete Sessions to win his House seat.
Cruz, being a conservative and a facile liar (I know, redundant), ignores the truth to run against an imaginary opponent. He continued:
“He’s voted for open borders and higher taxes and defunding the police. And yet he’s been on TV for three months straight with relentless attack ads. I just went on TV a couple of weeks ago, so I want to encourage your viewers this morning. I need your help. Please go to TedCruz.org and contribute because we are getting swamped by Chuck Schumer and George Soros; and as I said, they have put a bullseye on the state of Texas. They know if they flip Texas, if they take me out, they take the entire country, they keep the Senate Democrat; so I need your help.”
Should Cruz lose, it will not just be the Democrats rejoicing. Republican Senators want to win the Senate of course. But if they do not, they will celebrate Cruz’s ouster as a magnificent silver lining. If they win the Senate and Ted loses, the GOP party will go on for days.
So let me finish with this request. Dear Texan voters, do what’s right for the country. Please deny the Republicans their bacchanalia.
