Are big, showy campaign rallies worth the time and effort for presidential candidates?
A study of Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s 2016 rallies found that “Secretary Clinton’s visits in the later part of the campaign had a positive effect on her vote share in places she visited.”
That study found no similar bump for her opponent Donald Trump. But a different study on the 2016 election found that “Trump's rallies produced a short-lived increase in his support over Clinton (especially among leaning Republicans), intention to vote (especially among strong Republicans), and individual campaign contributions for him.”
Indeed, for an election that hinges on a few thousand votes in just six battleground states, there is real value in holding large political rallies. They generate on-the-ground enthusiasm, as well as heaps of local media coverage.
So with less than 30 days to go before the 2024 election, why is the Republican presidential nominee spending valuable time in California, Colorado, and New York, of all places?
Trump will be in Aurora, Colorado on Friday; Coachella, California on Saturday; and Madison Square Garden in New York City later this month.
Coachella is in Riverside County, not far from the Mexican border. The desert city is predominantly Latino, and its voters largely Democratic (like the state as a whole).
Local leaders have made it clear that Trump is far from welcome, even dropping Kendrick Lamar lyrics to make the point clear.
“He has consistently expressed disdain for the type of diversity that helps define Coachella,” Mayor Steven Hernandez told the Desert Sun. “We don’t know why Trump is visiting near Coachella, but we know he wasn’t invited by the people who live here. He ain’t like us.”
Trump’s campaign claims the rally is an opportunity to attack his opponent Vice President Kamala Harris’ record as a California attorney general and senator.
“Under Kamala Harris and her dangerous Democrat allies like Tim Walz, the notorious ‘California Dream’ has turned into a nightmare for everyday Americans,” the campaign said when announcing the event. “Californians are suffocating under rising prices for everything from groceries to housing, thanks to Kamalanomics.”
Other officials and Republican pundits claim the Coachella visit will help Trump woo Latinos. And with the border nearby, expect a healthy dose of immigrant-bashing.
But … Trump could do that in swingy Arizona, where the border is also adjacent and the Latino vote will actually matter in the presidential race. After all, Harris doesn’t need to go to Mar-a-Lago to criticize Trump.
With the high temperature predicted to reach 99 degrees on Saturday, there is a bigger chance that Trump’s makeup will run in the oppressive heat as sweat stains spread across his armpits than of him landing any kind of significant blow on Harris at the planned event. And if he can’t draw a crowd in that heat, in the middle of a desert, then the optics will be particularly bad.
And Trump sure as heck ain’t Lana Del Rey, Bad Bunny, or Billie Eilish.
Aurora, Colorado, is the city that Republicans claim has been overrun by Venezuelan gangs. Trump repeated the claim during the Sept. 10 presidential debate.
Ironically, this visit is a chance for Trump to see that it’s all a lie. Maybe he’ll follow the lead of a local columnist who visited the town and the apartment building supposedly controlled by vicious gang members, and instead found tenants living in squalor because of slumlords.
Given Trump’s own past as a slum landlord, a tour might even brighten his day.
Even the city’s Republican mayor questioned Trump’s planned visit, and urged him to correct the record.
"Former President Trump’s visit to Aurora is an opportunity to show him and the nation that Aurora is a considerably safe city – not a city overrun by Venezuelan gangs," said Mayor Mike Coffman.
His visit and inflammatory language will surely garner headlines and be the talk of conservative media. But again: There are no electoral votes to gain in blue Colorado. And again, a campaign rally’s value isn’t in the resulting coverage on Newsmax or Fox News, but in local media coverage and motivating attendees to participate in get-out-the-vote efforts.
And a rally in Manhattan? In the closing weeks of the campaign?
It’s just more evidence that as much as conservatives criticize and cry about New York City and other blue Democratic strongholds, Trump would much rather spend the day surrounded by liberals than in the Alabama region of Pennsylvania talking to his actual supporters.
Let’s make Donald Trump’s weird campaign rallies and unwelcome visits a thing of the past. Donate $5 to help Kamala Harris win the White House!