On Monday, before Hurricane Milton hit the Tampa Bay region where I live, I dropped in the mail my mail-in ballot. I was VERY excited to vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, as well as for Debbie Murcarsel-Powell for the U.S. Senate, for Amendment 4 to bring abortion rights back to the state, and Blue all up and down the ballot! Even though mail-in ballots were just sent out a week or so ago in our state, it seems like a lot of other Floridians have already voted by mail as well, and the early, early results look good for Democrats based on data provided by the Florida Division of Elections.
Before I dive into Florida’s early voting numbers, a few obvious caveats. The total number of mail-in ballots recorded so far represent just 3.3% of the total votes counted in Florida in the 2020 election, and the total requests for mail-in ballots represent just 28% of the 2020 election totals for the state. Also, these early numbers would obviously be higher if there wasn’t a BIG disruption this week in many parts of the state due to Hurricane Milton.
OK, with that out of the way, Florida’s early vote-by-mail results show that 43% came from Democrats, 37% from Republicans and 18% from no party affiliation (NPA)/other. The number of mail-in ballots received so far represent 12% of all mail-in ballots requested in 2024 in the state. Although we all know that Democrats are more likely to vote by mail than Republicans, these numbers are still encouraging — and these are banked votes for our side.
I decided to look at several critical swing counties in Central Florida and they also look good for our side in the early going:
|
Hillsborough |
Pinellas |
Orange |
Democrats |
45% |
40% |
53% |
Republicans |
34% |
39% |
28% |
NPA/Other |
20% |
21% |
19% |
Republicans’ best showing is in my county of Pinellas County (home to St. Petersburg and Clearwater), but even there they can barely muster a little more than one-third of the total. And Pinellas’ numbers are not surprising when you consider that Biden only won the county by .03% in 2020, whereas Biden's margin of victory was much bigger in Hillsborough (home of the city of Tampa) and Orange (home of Orlando) counties.
I also looked at the state’s important South Florida counties, where the Republicans’ showing is even worse:
|
palm beach |
broward |
miami-dade |
Democrats |
53% |
54% |
44% |
Republicans |
25% |
24% |
31% |
NPA/Other |
21% |
22% |
25% |
Miami-Dade County is the best showing for Republicans (although they still represent just 31% of the mail-in vote in the county), which makes sense given that Biden won the county by +7 in 2020 compared to +13 for Palm Beach and +30 for Broward.
I also looked at the traditionally more conservative/swingy Duval County (home to Jacksonville) in Northeast Florida, and here too Team Blue is crushing it, with Democrats representing 46% of mail-in votes compared to 38% for Republicans plus 16% for NPA/Other.
I’m not here to say that these numbers mean that Harris might be able win Florida — it’s much too soon to tell. But I DO think this is a sign that Democratic voters in Florida are showing signs of greater enthusiasm than Republicans to have their voices heard at the ballot box. Onward!!
UPDATE
A number of folks in the comments expressed concern about voting by mail in Florida. I have voted by mail for every election in Florida for nearly 20 years and I have never experienced a problem. The elections office in my county (Pinellas County) has been run by a Republican for a number of years now, but she seems to be a sane Republican and the office seems to be well-run as far as I can see. My county elections office, like all county elections offices in Florida, provide an easy online tool that lets you track the status of your mail-in ballot. I’ve used that tool every year, and usually within a week or so of mailing in my ballot I’ll use the tool to check my status and see that my ballot has been received and counted and ensure that there are no problems (it might take a little longer this year because of Milton, of course).
If you vote by mail in Florida, I encourage you to mail it in early if at all possible, and to check the status of your ballot online, so that you have time to follow-up if there are any problems. Florida also offers early in-person voting, which varies by county. Each county’s early voting period must start at least on the 10th day before the election and end on the 3rd day before the election. In addition, county supervisors of elections have the option to offer more early voting on the 15th, 14th, 13th, 12th, 11th, or 2nd day before an election. In Pinellas County, for example, early voting runs daily from October 21 to November 3.
UPDATE 2
For Florida voters: please note that it appears that Florida counties vary as to whether or not you have to add postage to the envelope for a mail-in ballot. My county does not require any postage, and I can’t recall us ever having to do that, but apparently some counties require that you add postage. So please check the mail-in instructions and return envelope carefully!