Exploring the Multifaceted Factors That Influence Evacuation Decisions Through Personal Narrative
For those who have never lived in a hurricane zone, evacuation may seem like the obvious thing to do. However, the reality is that many complex factors make it difficult, if not impossible, for many people to evacuate.
Without fail, in the aftermath of major hurricanes, many people who have never lived in a hurricane zone or faced evacuation orders will wonder aloud why so many people in the pathway of a hurricane did not evacuate and confidently declare that if they were in that situation, they would have evacuated. For those who have never lived in a hurricane zone, evacuation may seem like the obvious thing to do. However, the reality is that many complex factors make it difficult, if not impossible, for many people to evacuate. In this op-ed, I will presume the best intent of those who ask this question and provide context for some of the variables that influence evacuation decisions. As a Floridian, I will primarily focus on the context of the state of Florida specifically, as that is the context with which I am most familiar.
Lack of Infrastructure to Support Efficient Mass Evacuations
My family ultimately decided to try to evacuate, as officials warned that this could be the “big one.”
Many Floridians have negative, if not outright traumatic, memories of past evacuations. To illustrate this point, I will share my personal childhood memories from the Hurricane Floyd evacuation of 1999. As a millennial Orlando-area native with both parents and a large extended family who has lived in the Central Florida area for many years, believe me when I say that my parents were not the first to jump to evacuate at the news of a projected hurricane. My family was well-equipped and experienced in riding out hurricanes, and we lived (at least) a half-hour drive to the closest beach.
However, as news that Hurricane Floyd, a massive category-five storm that was projected to make a direct hit along the Space Coast, inched closer and closer to home, my family ultimately decided to try to evacuate, as officials warned that this could be the big one and the director of the National Hurricane Center, Jerry Jarrell, warned it was "much more dangerous than Andrew" (Tibbits, 2002). My parents, three of my younger siblings (my youngest sibling was not yet born), and I crammed into the family mini-van with a few suitcases and the family dog in the trunk. I was an inquisitive child who asked many questions, wanting to understand what was happening.
The explanation that my mother offered was that a large hurricane was expected to hit close to home and that we were going to drive north and stay in a hotel room until the hurricane passed, allowing me to look at a printout of Mapquest directions to see the evacuation path that we were following. Ultimately, this evacuation plan would prove to be impossible.
Florida’s Hurricane Floyd evacuation effort ultimately demonstrated that the state of Florida lacks adequate infrastructure to support mass evacuation orders, as gridlock traffic and fuel shortages left many evacuees stranded, sleeping in cars along the interstate and parking lots along highway exits, as hotels along evacuation routes quickly ran out of vacancies and shelters reached capacity.
At the time, the 1999 Hurricane Floyd evacuation was the largest evacuation effort in U.S. history. More than 3.5 million people across Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina attempted to evacuate from Hurricane Floyd (Tibbits, 2002), including more than 2.5 million Floridians alone (Husock, 2002). Florida's Hurricane Floyd evacuation effort ultimately demonstrated that the state of Florida lacks adequate infrastructure to support mass evacuation orders, as gridlock traffic and fuel shortages left many evacuees stranded, sleeping in cars along the interstate and parking lots along highway exits, as hotels along evacuation routes quickly ran out of vacancies and shelters reached capacity.
Negative Experiences with Prior Evacuations
The interstate more closely resembled a parking lot than a highway, and gas stations were largely out of fuel.
I remember that my family stopped at every exit for many hours, going to every hotel and trying to find somewhere to stay. "No vacancies" was what we were told at every hotel that we stopped along I-95. Eventually, my parents reluctantly conceded that we would have to sleep in the car, as we had no other options. The interstate more closely resembled a parking lot than a highway, and gas stations were largely out of fuel. In addition, the neighboring states of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina had also begun issuing evacuation orders for coastal areas in anticipation of Floyd.
It is not hyperbolic to say that evacuation was impossible for many people. Ultimately, Floyd swerved east of its projected path, largely sparing Florida of its projected destruction, instead making landfall in North Carolina. My family was fortunate that we were all safe and were able to return to an unscathed home. However, this experience left an impression that it was a mistake to try to evacuate and that we should have just stayed home.
There is a common perception that evacuating can be more dangerous than the storm itself, which is not entirely unfounded.
This is certainly not a unique story; millions of Floridian families have similar memories that left us feeling like we would have been better off staying home and hunkering down for the storm. It is haunting to imagine how many people could have been harmed if Floyd had followed its projected path while millions of people were stranded in their cars along I-95. There is a common perception that evacuating can be more dangerous than the storm itself, which is not entirely unfounded.
Fear of Being Stranded on the Highway
The gridlock traffic and fuel shortages associated with mass evacuations in the Florida peninsula are unlike other traffic gridlocks elsewhere. There is only one way out of the Florida peninsula: north!
Given this context, it is not unreasonable for Floridians to weigh the potential of being stuck on the highway when faced with evacuation orders. In the lead-up to Hurricane Milton last week, fear of being stuck on the highway when the storm hit was a commonly stated rationale for defying evacuation orders. The gridlock traffic and fuel shortages associated with mass evacuations in the Florida peninsula are unlike other traffic gridlocks elsewhere. There is only one way out of the Florida peninsula: north! Florida is also relatively densely populated and the third most populous state, with over 22 million residents. The state's existing infrastructure is simply insufficient to evacuate millions of people efficiently.
There are only two main interstate highways in Florida that go north. On the East Coast, I-95 is the only interstate highway; I-75 runs along the West Coast in the southern part of the state and swerves inland north of the Tampa Bay area. The only other North-South highway is the Florida Turnpike, a toll road that runs from Ocala to Homestead and connects I-75 and I-95. There are also two highways that run east-west; I-4 runs East-West across Central Florida, connecting Tampa, Orlando, and Daytona, and I-10 runs across the panhandle, running through Tallahassee and Jacksonville.
Moreover, many of those who live in the areas most vulnerable to hurricanes are on barrier islands, where many people rely on limited bridges to access the mainland of the peninsula. This is particularly true in the Tampa Bay region, where hurricanes Helene and Milton recently hit.
Socioeconomic Barriers
All of these expenses can add up quickly and often come in tandem with reduced wages, as the Florida economy is highly dependent on tourism and hospitality.
Evacuating is cost-prohibitive for many people. First, many people may either not own a car at all or fear that their car is unreliable for long distances. Additionally, many people do not have sufficient emergency funds to cover additional expenses such as hotel expenses and gasoline. This is especially true when one considers the extra costs many are already incurring to prepare themselves and their homes for hurricanes, such as plywood to board windows, battery-operated electronics, weather radios, flashlights, a few week's worth of nonperishable foods, water, medications, toiletries, extra batteries, etc.
All of these expenses can add up quickly and often come in tandem with reduced wages, as the Florida economy is highly dependent on tourism and hospitality. Additionally, many employers will not allow workers to take off before a storm is immediately imminent.
Health Barriers
A study of 291 Florida nursing homes found that during the 2004 hurricane season, 81% of facilities ultimately sheltered residents in place,
Evacuation is often inaccessible for those who are sick and/or elderly. This is especially relevant as Florida is home to numerous retirement communities, particularly along the west coast, which has been especially hard hit by hurricanes in recent years. Many people, for one reason or another, are not well enough to endure the stress of evacuation traffic or are otherwise unable to drive for long distances. Others have family and friends who are unable to evacuate and do not want to leave them behind. The evacuation process is physically and emotionally taxing, even for the strongest and healthiest among us. However, for many, it is entirely inaccessible in the face of significant health challenges for themselves or a loved one.
A study of 291 Florida nursing homes found that during the 2004 hurricane season, 81% of facilities ultimately sheltered residents in place, primarily due to concerns about safely transporting patients and difficulty securing shelters with the capacity to meet medical needs (Hyer et al., 2009). Additionally, Floridians with disabilities sometimes struggle to find shelters that are accessible and otherwise meet their needs.
Uncertain Trajectories
For many who have defied evacuation orders in the past and have lived to tell about it or had a negative experience with a previous evacuation, it is easy for these warnings to fall on deaf ears to Floridians who have “heard that one before.”
I cannot recall an instance in which a hurricane followed initial predictions with precision. Although that does not mean that it has never happened or that it cannot happen in the future, it does mean that Floridians have learned to take projections with a grain of salt. For those who have never lived in a hurricane zone, it may be difficult to fathom anyone choosing to stay in a Tampa evacuation zone; as Tampa Mayor Castor warned, "If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation zones, you are going to die" ahead of Milton.
However, for many who have defied evacuation orders in the past and have lived to tell about it or had a negative experience with a previous evacuation, it is easy for these warnings to fall on deaf ears to Floridians who have “heard that one before.”
2017 Hurricane Irma Evacuation
Unable to find fuel off an I-95 exit, I was only able to find fuel by making my way to the Florida Turnpike, where national guardsmen were delivering fuel to the service stations along the turnpike.
In 2017, ahead of Hurricane Irma, I once again found myself involved in the "largest evacuation of all time," with nearly seven million people evacuating from their homes. I had very recently moved to Miami, Florida, after having lived in Madrid, Spain, for a few years. Given potentially catastrophic projections for Miami-Dade and that I had moved back to the U.S. from Spain months prior and did not feel that I had sufficient hurricane supplies. I also doubted that I would be able to obtain necessary supplies, given the empty shelves that lined stores far in advance of the storm. Ultimately, I decided to drive to the Orlando-area to stay with my family for the storm.
Although it typically takes between three and four hours to drive from Miami to Orlando, and I made the trip a few days ahead of the storm, it still took me over twenty hours to make it from Miami-Dade to Seminole County to be more inland and with family to ride out the storm.
Unable to find fuel off an I-95 exit, I was only able to find fuel by making my way to the Florida Turnpike, where national guardsmen were delivering fuel to the service stations along the turnpike. The line for fuel at the Turnpike Service Center took about two hours, leading some cars to run out of gas while they waited in line to fill their tank. However, I was just grateful that in the year 2017, I had access to information via an internet search on my iPhone and the Gas Buddy app that was not accessible during the evacuation fiasco of 1999 and that I did eventually make it safely to Orlando.
More recently, in 2022, ahead of Hurricane Ian, many Tampa-area residents who fled from the Tampa Bay region to the Orlando area found themselves stuck in the midst of catastrophic flooding in Orlando, while Tampa was left largely unscathed.
Still, I was on the receiving end of worried messages from friends in Nashville and elsewhere from my college years at Vanderbilt offering unsolicited advice that evacuating from Miami to Orlando was not good enough and that I needed to get out of the state entirely, which I brushed off without much thought. Ultimately, Orlando was impacted more than Miami, as Irma swerved west of its trajectory, instead making landfall on Marco Island on the West Coast, only minimally impacting Miami.
In fact, there have been numerous instances in which Floridians evacuate inland towards Orlando, only to find themselves stuck in Orlando as the storm hits elsewhere than projected. More recently, in 2022, ahead of Hurricane Ian, many Tampa-area residents who fled from the Tampa Bay region to the Orlando area found themselves stuck amid catastrophic flooding in Orlando, while Tampa was left largely unscathed. As such, many Floridians hesitate to evacuate inland out of concern that it may be worse there than here.
Implications
As climate change threatens a future with increased risks from more powerful hurricanes, the conversation surrounding how to increase evacuation accessibility will likely grow increasingly urgent.
Although the benefit of 20/20 hindsight vision may make evacuation decisions appear obvious on the surface to those who do not have personal experience with this topic, the reality is more nuanced. My hope is that sharing some of my personal experiences with the evacuation experience will promote greater empathy and understanding for those who find themselves making difficult choices with seemingly no good options. As climate change threatens a future with increased risks from more powerful hurricanes, the conversation surrounding how to increase evacuation accessibility will likely grow increasingly urgent. However, we cannot solve a problem that we do not first understand. As such, solving complex collective challenges of the 21st century, such as climate change, will require that we all take more time to listen to and understand experiences different from our own.