This election will be closely watched by both sides as polling indicates that a coalition shift in New York is bringing the results closer to 50-50. If there is a continued backlash to Democrats just like in 2022, this district will be the epicenter of that.
Market Street in Poughkeepsie, New York, along the Hudson River and steps away from a train station used by New York City commuters, is home to a 19th-century theater, a post office and convention center. It's a short walk to the progressive bastion of Vassar College and a short drive from the presidential library of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
In this unusual election year, it's also where a critical congressional race is playing out, the battle for New York's 18th Congressional District, which is at the epicenter of the fight for control of the House of Representatives.
With a perilously narrow majority, Republicans are fighting to protect several House incumbents from New York and to make inroads in Democratic-held seats, including in Poughkeepsie.
A spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House Republicans, told CBS News "the road to the House majority" runs through New York and California, another state with several closely contested races. "House Republicans have a strong game plan to go on offense and hold Democrats accountable for their blue state failures on crime, rising costs and border chaos," said the spokesman. Republican campaign leadership held a call to discuss battleground races Thursday evening, CBS News has learned.
At a makeshift office on Market Street, Rep. Pat Ryan, a Democrat first elected in 2022, was meeting and rallying earlier this month with canvassers, who'll help conduct outreach to voters in New York's 18th District. Ryan, in a gray polo shirt and jeans on a stiflingly hot day, told CBS News his race will be pivotal in his party's efforts to win the House majority.
"There's no doubt that control of the House runs through New York and runs specifically through the Hudson Valley," said Ryan. "We feel that responsibility and duty."
While New York Democrats are trying to flip the swing seats in their favor, the GOP is trying to win the last remaining Democratic-held swing seat their way. But Rep. Pat Ryan won’t be an easy out especially during a Presidential election year. He has a history of winning close races for the House.
The question for Pat Ryan is whether his past history as a patriot for this country is enough to secure another win in New York’s 18th district.
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Pat Ryan for New York-18
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What’s the Big Idea?
NY-18 results in 2022 by county.
THIS HOUSE RACE IS RATED AS LEANS DEMOCRATIC, with a D+3 PVI
This district is in a swingy part of Upstate New York. Republicans have traditionally done well in this area, which is why this will be a barometer of who has more enthusiastic voters come the fall. The district tends to elect more moderate members of both parties. It was in the 2006 blue wave when the action really started in this district, when now Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand won in a complete shock over a GOP foe.
The district stayed with Democratic candidates for a little while, even through a special election in which we held the district despite the building red wave election. 2010 was a bridge too far, and Rep. Chris Gibson ejected Rep. Scott Murphy from the seat. Gibson held what would become the 19th district all the way until he left in 2016.
Rep. John Faso took over from there, but he ran into a juggernaut in Rep. Antonio Delgado in 2018, who beat Faso after only one term in office. Delgado held the district in 2020 when Biden narrowly won the seat, and held it until he resigned in May 2022 to become Lt. Governor. That triggered a special election, in which Rep. Pat Ryan won narrowly over future colleague Marc Molinaro.
The new 18th district after 2020 redistricting was much more blue than the 19th he won a special election in, giving him a much larger margin for error. He needed every bit of help during the 2022 general election as Ryan narrowly prevailed over State Rep. Colin Schmitt. His 50.6% to 49.3% win meant that he was the only swing seat survivor in a terrible year for New York Democrats.
This is the 18th district as used for the 2022 election.
This is the current version of the 18th district as used in 2024.
The close result must have spooked New York Democrats because they shored up this district at the expense of the 19th district when the courts mandated another round of redistricting in 2024. If the district lines had existed in 2020, Joe Biden would’ve won 53.8% to 44.7% which is about a 2-point improvement over the old lines. However, Gov. Kathy Hochul still would have lost this district 51%-49% under these lines in 2022. 266k voted in the 2022 midterm election while 359k voted here during the 2020 Presidential election. It is possible that many Democratic-leaning voters stayed home in 2022 leading to a closer result.
Here’s where this 18th district race will be won.
- Ulster County: This is the Democratic anchor for the entire district, and it is also the home base for Pat Ryan. It cannot be overstated that a robust turnout is critical to his chances here.
- Dutchess County: The bluer portions of this county are now in the district, which is why the trends are much more favorable for Ryan. While he lost the county in the special election, he will likely win the county this time around.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Orange County: Much of this area is rural and has rejected the Democratic Party. There are important towns such as Newburgh and Middletown which will provide crucial votes for Ryan, but the rest of the county is going to be tough sledding.
Rep. Pat Ryan: An AMerican Patriot
Rep. Pat Ryan has spent most of his life in the military or the defense industry.
Rep. Pat Ryan was born in Kingston, New York in 1982. He earned a bachelor’s degree in international politics from the US Military Academy and a master’s degree in security studies from Georgetown University. He served two tours in Iraq as a military intelligence officer and then as a military contractor for Palantir Technologies in Afghanistan.
After leaving the US Army, Pat Ryan helped found Praescient Analytics, a software company, in 2011. He then went on to serve as senior vice president of Dataminr, an artificial intelligence platform. Ryan also served as a senior advisor for New Politics in 2018. It is clear that Pat Ryan has served our country honorably and will continue to do so in Congress.
Before reaching Congress, Pat Ryan ran for political office twice. He placed second behind Rep. Antonio Delgado in the 2018 Democratic primary for New York’s 19th district. When the Ulster County Executive resigned to join the Cuomo administration, Pat Ryan ran in and won the special election to replace the incumbent. He would go on to win a full term in the fall of 2019 as well.
As County Executive, Ryan helped pilot a universal basic income program where 100 families received $500 per month. The program was seen as a modest success and was extended due to the financial hardships of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is unclear whether Pat Ryan would support a UBI program as a member of Congress but the history of support is there.
Ryan also stressed environmental issues while he was the County Executive. He created a plan to transition all governmental operations to renewable energy by the year 2030. He also partnered with SUNY Ulster to promote the green energy jobs of the future. Ryan has continued his push for environmental issues while in Congress — especially on electrifying the transportation system and protecting the Hudson River valley.
Ryan voted with Biden’s stated agenda 100% of the time during the 117th Congress, but his score is a little lower for the 118th Congress. It is clear that Pat Ryan is a typical New Democratic Coalition politician holding down a swing seat that leans our way. His status as a patriot for this country is a welcome bonus and will hopefully keep him in Congress a long time.
Alison Esposito: Another Dirty Cop
You won’t believe what Alison Esposito did as a police officer. The whole barrel is rotten.
Alison Esposito was born and raised in Highland Mills, New York. She attended the State University of New York at Delhi, City University of New York’s John Jay College of Criminal Justice and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) National Academy at Quantico, Virginia. She would go on to join the New York Police Department for 25 years, rising to Commanding Officer of the 70th police precinct.
Esposito has a troubling police officer record like many career officers do. She has cost the city $120,000 in settlement money thanks to two cases that went to court. One involved three Black women claiming wrongful arrest on the suspicion of shoplifting. The other is more troubling — Esposito is claimed to have stopped, frisked, and handcuffed an infant in 2017. There is no excuse for a cop to be doing that!
Esposito also is a carpetbagger for this seat. She lives in Manhattan but tried to move to Goshen just for this campaign. She still lives in an Upper East side apartment — according to parking records she used her own campaign funds to pay. She also has a history of stiffing her own campaign staff. If she cannot run a competent campaign, how is Esposito ever going to run a Congressional office properly?
Esposito also makes it clear where she stands on abortion rights. She would force women and girls to undergo biased counseling before seeking an abortion — intruding on a most private decision. She believes life begins at conception, which would not only rule out abortion but place birth control and IVF at risk too. According to her, Dobbs was the “absolute right thing” to decide.
Esposito would be a disaster for the Hudson Valley. Not only is she yet another dirty cop but she is a carpetbagger on top of that.
How Can You Help?
The 3Q reporting period ended on Monday, so there should be fresh fundraising numbers for this race in a couple of weeks.. While it is clear that Rep. Pat Ryan has won the race for dollars, Alison Esposito is raising enough to be competitive in this district. This is three-month old data though so it is hard to gauge where the race is at this time.
As of 9/30, the GOP is still heavily targeting this district with advertising. The GOP-adjacent Congressional Leadership Fund has spent close to $1M on this district in order to flip it. Since Pat Ryan has quite a bit saved up there isn’t much of a response yet on the Democratic side. Only $100k has been spent on ads by the DCCC and their allies so far.
People may malign the NY Democratic Party for incompetence, and there certainly is a case to be made after 2022 that the party needs to purge its leadership. However, in terms of canvassing and phone banking there seems to be a surge in opportunities. This grows in number the closer we get to the election. Instead of linking to each individual event, I am linking to the Pat Ryan Mobilize page. Unfortunately, all of the events are in-person but if you live in the district you can definitely help out.
This was the district that got away from the GOP in 2022 and they would love nothing more than to flip it to hold all of the New York swing seats. Rep. Pat Ryan has a track record of winning close elections for Congress which will make it easier for us to defend. He still sits in the 17th most vulnerable seat held by a Democratic incumbent meaning this will be seriously contested.
Alison Esposito is trying to make a favorable impression of herself by touting her days as a cop and her previous run for office as the Lt. Gov. on a ticket that came close to winning the governor’s race in 2022. Her record as a police officer is extremely troubling and should be disqualifying. There’s only a GOP internal poll for this race showing it a tie — but it is from two months ago.
Pat Ryan is a patriot straight out of central casting. The question is whether or not that is enough to keep this district in Democratic hands.
Pat Ryan for New York-18
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