The Cook Political Report’s latest survey of swing states is full of good news for Vice President Kamala Harris and her Democratic Party. Conducted by polling firms BSG and GS Strategy Group, the poll shows Harris leading in six of seven swing states. This is just one poll, but if these results held up on Election Day and Harris took every other state she is favored in, she would win the Electoral College 303 to 235.
And somehow that’s not even the best part about these polls.
The poll’s toplines for the presidential race are exciting enough:
Arizona: Harris 50%, Trump 47%
Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 47%
Michigan: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
Nevada: Harris 48%, Trump 47%
North Carolina: Harris 49%, Trump 46%
Pennsylvania: Harris 49%, Trump 47%
Wisconsin: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
The poll also shows Democratic Senate candidates leading in Arizona (+13 percentage points), Michigan (+4 points), Nevada (+13 points), Pennsylvania (+7 points), and Wisconsin (+2 points), as well as a big gubernatorial lead in North Carolina (+24 points). Michigan and Wisconsin look a bit close for comfort, but they’ll likely end up where the presidential does.
We never want to rely on any single poll, but many of these results are in line with 538’s polling averages, which show a narrow-but-steady Harris lead in four of the seven of the battleground states, with her close behind in the other three, as of Wednesday afternoon.
Dig deeper into this poll’s data, though, and we find just how effective the Harris campaign has been recently.
Inflation
Though it has abated recently, inflation remains top of mind for Americans, with 80% of likely voters calling it a “major factor” in their vote for president, according to a YouGov poll for CBS News. However, Cook’s poll suggests that voters no longer give Republicans the advantage on the issue. As political analysts Amy Walter and Jessica Taylor write about their poll:
As he did in August, Trump holds a five-point lead on the question on who voters trust to “deal with the economy” (50-45%). But, on the specific issue of “getting inflation under control,” Trump’s six-point lead from August has evaporated. In August, Trump led Harris on inflation and cost of living 48% to 42%. Today, voters are evenly divided (47%) on who they trust more to handle an issue that 60% of swing state voters say is the aspect of the economy that “concerns them the most.”
Walter and Taylor say that attempts by Trump to tie “Bidenomics”—i.e., the economic policies of President Joe Biden—to Harris have largely failed, and that Harris’ focus on affordability is taking root.
I suspect the bigger culprit here is Trump’s bizarre obsession with tariffs, including a proposed universal tariff of up to 20%. As the two authors note, “just 38% of swing state voters said they thought that a 20% tariff on imported goods would mean ‘companies would bring more manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.’, while a plurality of voters (45%) said that companies that import goods would ‘increase the prices consumers pay to pay for the tariff.’”
Economy
In Cook’s May poll, 38% of swing state voters thought the economy was getting better or staying the same, while 62% said it was getting worse—a difference of 24 points. But in the latest poll, that difference has shrunken to just 8 points, suggesting that voters are starting to feel better about the economy.
Here’s Walter and Taylor again:
[W]hile Trump is winning the 35% of voters who think the economy is getting “a lot worse” by more than 50 points, Harris is holding her own with those who think inflation is “getting a little worse” (42% to 55% for Trump), and leads Trump among the 46% of voters who who think inflation is getting better or staying the same.
Remember, MAGA Republicans will always say the economy is bad under a Democratic president, and they’ll always say it’s good under a Republican one. Where the question matters is among those who are less partisan and who are being honest in their assessment of the economy, and in that sense, the improving numbers shore up Harris’ support.
Immigration
Trump is running on arguably two core issues: inflation and immigration. Not only is his lead on inflation eroding, but so is his lead on immigration.
Walter and Taylor again:
Trump has his largest lead over Harris, 51% to 42% on the issue of border and immigration. However, that is a five-point drop from his 53% to 39% lead over Harris in August. This drop comes even as the Trump campaign and its allies have run attack ads that put the blame for the surge of migrants at the southern border, and the crimes some of them have committed, at Harris’ feet.
The authors do note that Trump’s advantage on the issue is larger in the border states of Nevada and Arizona, which could explain why Harris is doing better on the issue in states like Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
Who will win
This is a fun one: Rank liberal pessimism about our chances this year—we can be our own worst enemies—appears to be eroding.
“[F]or the first time ever, a plurality of swing state voters now think that a Democrat will win the presidential election,” the authors write. “This month, 46% of voters think Harris will win, compared to 39% who think it will be Trump. That represents an 11-point swing in Harris’ favor since August, and suggests that Harris has been successful in presenting herself as a serious candidate, while Trump’s attempts to portray her as unable to do the job have not been effective.”
Republicans expend significant effort creating an aura of inevitability. They left their party convention on July 19 with a belief in a “blowout victory,” as the Associated Press reported at the time. Two days later, Biden ended his reelection bid, endorsed Harris, and now everything’s different.
Still, I still hear this nonsense all the time: “Act like we’re 10 points down!” Hogwash. Biden was down 3 points the day he ended his bid, and Democrats were losing their minds. The situation’s different now, so let’s not say that pretending we’re losing is a winning strategy.
Trump’s ceiling
I’ve long talked about Trump’s 47% ceiling in his national support. In 2016, he got 45.9% of the national vote. In 2020, he got 46.8%. Obviously, that ceiling is higher in the battleground states, but it nevertheless points to an enduring Trump challenge: He’s never been able to expand his base of support beyond its current MAGA core. You can see it even now, where his idea of campaigning is going on Fox News, Newsmax, and right-wing podcasts, as opposed to “60 Minutes,” which he recently bailed on.
“One of the most important—and enduring—political questions for Trump is whether he can expand his appeal, or if he has a hard ‘ceiling’ of support,” write Walter and Taylor. ”As we saw in 2016 and 2020, Trump has been unable to break 49% of the vote in some of the most important swing states, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona. This poll gives some credence to the theory that his support is fixed. Since May, Trump’s overall share of the vote has barely budged (47-48%), even as Harris has been able to improve on Biden’s share by five points (44-49%).”
The authors point out that there is a path for Trump to break out of that ceiling via a group of “like his policies but don’t like his style” voters who are currently refusing to support him. If he could—ha ha ha—change his style, he could theoretically win some of those voters. But—ha ha ha—imagine Trump changing his style? He’s not getting better, ever. In fact, he’s getting worse.
All in all, the toplines of Cook’s poll are encouraging, but it’s the trends in the underlying data that show how far Harris has come, and how she’s creating a solid foundation for eventual victory in November.
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