In what could be the closest election since 1876, the economy is the leading issue for 81% of voters. The Fed’s recent rate cut is likely to help the economy, which should be a plus for Vice President Harris’ campaign, which has suffered in polling, with most voters saying they trust former president Donald Trump more to find solutions for their economic woes. Quite simply, the better the economy is doing come Election Day, the better Harris’ chances. She is, in effect the incumbent, and Trump is looking for any chinks in her armour to attack her on. As the election nears, the economy is actually doing better, especially in swing states, where Harris’ polling continues to improve. Not only is her polling in swing states improving, but her national polling numbers are at the point where, if the election were held today, she’d be the favorite to win both the popular vote and the White House. Here’s what needs to happen for Harris to win on the economy.
Source: Pew Research
More of the Same
Before President Joe Biden dropped out, Trump had a 12-point lead on the economy. Now, with the economy doing better, Trump’s lead has eroded to 6 points. The now-cast is tight, Trump and Harris are running neck-and-neck, but the fore-cast for Harris suggests that she is likely to be stronger come Election Day, than she is now. With inflation cooling, interest rates coming down, and wages outpacing inflation, the economy is no longer the albatross that it once was. She can now argue that a vote for her is a vote for a continuation of the progress the Biden-Harris administration has made to clean up the mess left by Trump. The University of Michigan’s consumer survey is at its highest level in four months, rising for the second straight month. Harris is the candidate of optimism, and Trump is the candidate of pessimism and this is a good indicator of rising optimism.
Source: University of Michigan
Sharper Messaging on Trump’s Policies
The Penn Wharton Budget Model shows that if Trump is elected, his tax cuts and spending proposals would eventually add $5.8 trillion to the federal deficit over the coming decade, while Harris’ would only raise the federal deficit by $1.2 trillion. An analysis by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) shows that Trump’s plans to deport millions of unauthorized migrants, hike tariffs, and erode the Federal Reserve’s political independence, would shrink the US economy, be inflationary, raise unemployment, and that this damage might continue all the way to 2040, 11 years after he would have left office. In fact, the researchers find that the resulting capital flight might lead to other countries prospering as a result of Trump’s policies, at the expense of the U.S.. A vote for Trump is a vote for economic devastation, and more voters need to know this.
