This is an extraordinarily long diary. It is a culmination of all of the work I have put in over the last year. I would recommend reading the information before the fold, as this is where you can take action to help out in winning control of the House of Representatives, as well as keeping the Senate.
Below the fold are links to every diary I have written, as well as the names of candidates I have still yet to publish an article about. I have organized them in order by state and district in ABC order. Hopefully this will make it easier to find the district you are interested in!
Without further ado, let’s look at the races that are most critical in both the House and Senate.
House of Representatives
Each of these races helps us win back the House of Representatives. I’ve tried to include links to as many as possible base upon their needs. There shouldn’t be any duplicates in any of the three categories below except for Texas’ 15th district.
Key House Races
These races will likely determine control of the House of Representatives. All of them are tossup races. They need volunteers and more donations in order to win. We need to sweep MOST of the races listed to win back the House! Click on their name to go to their campaign website to either donate or volunteer.
- The Blue Dog Trio — Rep. Mary Peltola (AK-AL), Rep. Jared Golden (ME-02), and Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (WA-03) are in tough races because Trump will handily win each of their districts. If we lose these races it will be very difficult to take back the House.
- NE Pennsylvania — Rep. Matt Cartwright (PA-08) sits in a district Trump will win while Rep. Susan Wild (PA-07) is in one that Biden barely won. The GOP is blanketing the airwaves in both races and the Democrats are responding hard. It’s anyone’s game here.
- Mid-Michigan — Curtis Hertel, Jr. (MI-07) and Kristen McDonald Rivet (MI-08) are locking horns with the GOP in some of the most expensive races in the nation. We need to keep both open seats if we want to keep the House of Representatives.
- New York, New York — There are *5* critical races on the docket in New York state! Laura Gillen (NY-04), Mondaire Jones (NY-17), Josh Riley (NY-19), and John Mannion (NY-22) all have great chances of winning. We’re also defending Rep. Pat Ryan (NY-18) as well.
- Arizona — Both Dr. Amish Shah (AZ-01) and Kirsten Engel (AZ-06) are contesting districts Biden won narrowly. MVP Harris isn’t polling very well in the state but these races are still highly competitive. Let’s flip the Arizona delegation to Democratic control!
- Iowa — I was skeptical of both races but the DCCC and its allies are making a huge investment here. Christina Bohannan (IA-01) and Lanon Baccam (IA-03) are really taking it to the GOP incumbents. I’ll wait for the gold-standard Selzer poll before declaring victory though.
- O-H-I-O — Two key races in Ohio are Rep. Marcy Kaptur (OH-09) and Rep. Emilia Sykes (OH-13). Kaptur sits in a Trump-won district and Sykes a marginal Biden district. Both incumbents cannot be confident of victory but having Sherrod Brown as an ally helps.
- Portland, OR — In addition to MGP being right next door, another key race for the House involves Janelle Bynum (OR-05). She’s beaten the GOP incumbent twice before and hopefully she will beat her again. We’re counting on this race to flip the House.
- NW Connecticut — Rep. Jahana Hayes (CT-05) almost lost this district in 2022 and polling shows her challenger within striking distance. Presidential turnout should help but MVP Harris isn’t exactly polling well in this district either.
- Pittsburgh, PA — Rep. Chris Deluzio (PA-17) is in a critical district in a critical state. The hope is MVP Harris is above water in the district which would make Deluzio’s job easier. If Harris loses the state then he will have to outrun the top of the ticket.
House Races Needing Donations
These 10 campaigns are running on fumes right now and could use some last minute donations. Each one may be critical to our chances of taking over the House, but it won’t happen if these races don’t get more funding soon! Click on their name to donate to them — they truly need the cash for the home stretch!
- Jessica Morse (CA-03) is running an uphill battle in a district Trump won near Sacramento, CA. She isn’t even on the Red to Blue list for some inexplicable reason. Morse has spent most of what she has raised and needs more than the $446k she has remaining.
- Joe Kerr (CA-40) is challenging a strong incumbent for this Orange County, CA based district. He hasn’t caught fire with donors and has been chronically underfunded. If we want to contest this district Biden barely won Kerr will need more than $400k to do it.
- Derek Tran (CA-45) is in a tossup race in Orange County, CA. He has quite a bit of money and support but his coffers have dipped below what is necessary for him to contest the district in the final weeks. He has around $957k which seems like a lot but LA is expensive.
- Dave Min (CA-47) has a fight on his hands to retain a seat in Orange County, CA. He’s got some issues but nothing a good persuasion campaign cannot cure. He’s only got $916k in an expensive media market to do that though.
- Whitney Fox (FL-13) has a race that is heating up fundraising wise. She finally raised a significant amount of funds in Q3 but is still playing catch-up. This St. Petersburg district is able to flip but only if she has more than the $807k she has.
- Sue Altman (NJ-07) is running a race without the DCCC helping in a district Biden won. Polls have shown her behind but within striking distance. Since national orgs aren’t helping her, we have to help her across the finish line. She has $1.4M but that won’t be enough.
- Michelle Vallejo (TX-15) is running a credible race in the Rio Grande Valley but has exhausted everything that she has raised in an effort to win. If we’re serious about winning Texas we need an improved performance in this district. She has $185k remaining.
- Missy Cotter Smasal (VA-02) is currently being propped up by the DCCC because her fundraising hasn’t been up to snuff. She’s contesting a Biden-won district in the Hampton Roads region of Virginia. She has $428k but will need more for the home stretch.
- Peter Barca (WI-01) has raised quite a bit but has spent it all trying to soften the incumbent in southeastern Wisconsin. He’s in dire need of more donations because he’s out of money and the DCCC isn’t helping. Barca has only $98k to his campaign name right now.
- Rebecca Cooke (WI-03) is trying to oust an insurrectionist who attended Jan 6th from Congress. She’s used up quite a bit of what she has raised cash wise and will need more for the final stretch. She has $660k which is decent but we could push it higher.
House Races Needing Volunteers
I have selected critical races where poor turnout or the need for persuasion has harmed us in the past. It is critical that we get volunteers to these races to have a fighting chance. All of them have the cash to win — they just need the boots on the ground. Click on their name to volunteer for them.
- Central Valley, CA — This part of California tends to have poor turnout even in Presidential years. Demographics suggest our voters are there but don’t turn in their ballots. Rep. Josh Harder (CA-09), Adam Gray (CA-13), and Rudy Salas (CA-22) will need help turning out votes.
- Rio Grande Valley, TX — Volunteers are needed here both to get out the vote and to persuade reticent voters to pull the lever for Democrats again. This area trended hard to the right in 2020. Michelle Vallejo (TX-15) and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (TX-34) need the help.
- Southern New Mexico — Rep. Gabe Vasquez (NM-02) won in a nail-biter in 2022. This race is critical both for turn out (it’s low) and persuasion (Latine voters who are Trump-curious). Let’s make sure to fend off an election denier radical once and for all!
- Antelope Valley/Santa Clarita, CA — This area north of Los Angeles hosts a highly competitive race where our voters don’t turn out. Some also cross over to vote for the incumbent so persuasion is necessary. George Whitesides (CA-27) needs boots on the ground.
- Bucks County, PA — This is one of the most critical counties in Pennsylvania for both Sen. Bob Casey and for MVP Harris. There is also a very strong GOP incumbent ensconced in this district. Ashley Ehasz (PA-01) needs volunteers to limit the number of people who cross over vote.
- Riverside County, CA — There is a left-trending Congressional district in this county were the fight will be in the trenches and the gains measured in inches. Will Rollins (CA-41) came close in a terrible year for California Democrats in 2022. Help him finish the job this year!
- Eastern North Carolina — Rep. Don Davis (NC-01) has a district that is marginal at best and trending rightwards in reality. He needs volunteers to persuade rural Black residents to vote. Every vote counts in a coin-flip district and a state that MVP Harris is seriously contesting!
- North of Denver, CO — Rep. Yadira Caraveo (CO-08) is a freshman legislator in a tough re-election battle. Her district relies on Latine voters to pull the lever for Democrats. She has cultivated a moderate profile and will need volunteers to convince people to pull the lever.
- Harrisburg, PA — Want to get rid of an insurrectionist from Congress? It is all about persuasion in central Pennsylvania. Janelle Stelson (PA-10) needs volunteers to help some Republicans split their tickets to be rid of one of the major players in January 6th, 2021.
- Northern Virginia — Eugene Vindman (VA-07) has more money than he knows what to do with thanks to resistlib donations. What he needs are volunteers to persuade moderates in the DC area to keep voting for Democrats. It’s an important seat to keep on our side!
US Senate
13 Races to Decide the Senate
The Senate sits on a knife’s edge. Stray but a little and we lose the ability to appoint competent Cabinet positions and judicial nominations. This list is in order of likelihood of flipping — I have not and will not link to the lost cause known as the West Virginia Senate race. These links will take you to their campaign websites where you can volunteer and donate.
- West Virginia Senate — Once the reviled Sen. Joe Manchin retired, so did our chances of retaining this seat. We weren’t likely to keep it even with him on the ticket. West Virginia is one of the most conservative states in the nation and rejects the modern Democratic Party. Sorry, but we ain’t competitive in this one.
- Sen. Jon Tester (MT) — Tester is an underdog now, and it is looking increasingly likely this race will decide who controls the Senate. It isn’t money that Tester lacks but the willingness of the citizens of Montana to elect Democratic candidates these days. The only opening is that Tim Sheehy is such a terrible candidate.
- Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH) — Brown’s Senate race is a pure tossup with Ohio definitely voting for Trump. He is a canny politician and Bernie Moreno is a dumpster fire candidate. Polling has him slightly ahead of Moreno right now but since the state isn’t competitive in the Presidential race there isn’t enough quality polling to be sure.
- Sen. Tammy Baldwin (WI) — Baldwin has a strong brand in the Blue Wall state of Wisconsin. Eric Hovde is a complete mess but he’s hoping Trump will win the state so that he can get carried over the finish line. Polling is close, but with a consistent Baldwin advantage. As usual, turnout in Madison and Milwaukee will decide who wins.
- Rep. Elissa Slotkin (MI) — Sen. Debbie Stabenow is retiring and open seats are always more difficult to defend than with an incumbent. While polling is looking good so far, this Blue Wall state will be competitive to the end. Former Rep. Mike Rogers came out of a Florida retirement to run, and it is important to send him back into retirement.
- Sen. Bob Casey, Jr. (PA) — If polling is to be believed, this is the closest Blue Wall state for the race for President this year. Casey has always done better than the top of the ticket though, and polling is showing that happening again. Connecticut rich guy Dave McCormick is a terrible fit for the state but as always the suburbs of Philadelphia will decide who wins.
- Sen. Jacky Rosen (NV) — Polling is looking good for Rosen in Nevada, but I cannot shake off the fact that the last Senate race (in 2022) was a squeaker. Nevada is all about hitting the right numbers in both Clark and Washoe Counties. Follow Jon Ralston to find out more about how the election is going in this critical state.
- Rep. Ruben Gallego (AZ) — Polling is once again looking good, and Krazy Kari Lake has the loser stink all over her from two years ago. However, the race will be tight as they always are in Arizona. Luckily for us Rep. Ruben Gallego has an outstanding profile and is from the critical Maricopa County we need to win.
- Rep. Colin Allred (TX) — I think it is still 4-8 years too early for Texas. Allred is giving Sen. Ted Cruz a run for his money though and national Republicans are a little freaked out about this race. A lot will depend on the suburbs of Dallas/Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston. If we continue making gains there the odds of flipping this seat go up.
- Dan Osborn (NE) — This would be one of the most unexpected places for a GOP senator to lose. However, it appears that independent Dan Osborn has made it a race in Nebraska. He cuts a very similar profile to Sen. Jon Tester and will definitely be an asset to which side he caucuses with. Here’s hoping for the upset!
- Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL) — I’m not going to be Charlie Brown kicking the football. Florida is the Lucy state for the Democratic Party. Sen. Rick Scott is unlikeable but he also has a ton of money to pour into the race. The fact that he hasn’t needed to dip much into his own funds says all I need to know about the state of this race.
- Angela Alsobrooks (MD) — I think Alsobrooks wins in the end, but former Gov. Larry Hogan has made it a race worth watching. He’s fooled too many voters with his moderate schtick and Alsobrooks isn’t as well known. She is a major ally of MVP Harris so electing her to the Senate is important for passing our agenda.
- Lucas Kunce (MO) — We would all love to beat insurrectionist Sen. Josh Hawley. It’s very unlikely to happen and Kunce is down even in his own internal polls. However, the abortion ballot measure gives a glimmer of hope for Missourians looking to push the state in a more Democratic direction.
List of Candidates by State + District
Just click on the link to browse the article you are interested in. Clicking on the link also gives you the option of donating or volunteering for that candidate within the diary. Links are found right before the fold or at the bottom of each article.
If the name of the candidate is in black, this means that the article has not been published on Daily Kos yet!
* equals an incumbent we are trying to protect!
Alaska Races
|
Candidate
|
Date
|
Race
|
Rating
|
|
Mary Peltola*
|
09/22/24 |
At Large |
Tossup |
Arizona Races
California Races
Colorado Races
Connecticut Races
| Candidate |
Date |
Race |
Rating |
| Jahana Hayes* |
09/18/24 |
5th |
Lean D |
Florida Races
Illinois Races
Indiana Races
| Candidate |
Date |
Race |
Rating |
| Frank Mrvan* |
06/02/24 |
1st |
Likely D |
Iowa Races
Kansas Races
Maine Races
| Candidate |
Date |
Race |
Rating |
| Jared Golden* |
09/04/24 |
2nd |
Tossup |
Maryland Races
Michigan Races
Minnesota Races
| Candidate |
Date |
Race |
Rating |
| Angie Craig* |
10/16/24 |
2nd |
Lean D |
Missouri Races
| Candidate |
Date |
Race |
Rating |
| Lucas Kunce |
09/11/24 |
Senate |
Likely R |
Montana Races
Nebraska Races
Nevada Races
New Hampshire Races
| Candidate |
Date |
Race |
Rating |
| Joyce Craig |
10/30/24 |
Governor |
Tossup |
New Jersey Races
| Candidate |
Date |
Race |
Rating |
| Sue Altman |
08/04/24 |
7th |
Lean R |
New Mexico Races
| Candidate |
Date |
Race |
Rating |
| Gabe Vasquez* |
01/14/24 |
2nd |
Tossup |
New York Races
North Carolina Races
Ohio Races
Oregon Races
Pennsylvania Races
Texas Races
Virginia Races
Washington Races
Wisconsin Races
