Hey, out of state, non-Michiganders, stop with the “but Gaza and Michigan” doom saying. Respectfully, you have no idea what you’re talking about. The big news for Michigan is the bluing of West Michigan (not Gaza) and is why we are going to win in MI (probably pretty comfortably).
I have been a part time Michigander for the past 60 years — going to the Michigan lake front in Holland Michigan. It’s a special place — nice people, beautiful dunes, wonderful food and more. It’s also been, for almost my whole life, incredibly conservative politically This is the home of Betsy DeVos and Erik Prince. Recently, the county where downtown Holland is located — Ottawa County — made news because the county council got taken over by MAGA and starting doing insane things, so insane that it got covered nationally.
Ottawa County, West Michigan (which also includes Kent County) is the home of the Republican vote in Michigan. You drive into Holland on the “Gerald R Ford” highway. David Stockman was the local Congressman. In the old days, I didn’t even dare say I was a Democrat in Holland and had little hope that, if I did, there would be others on the other side of the conversation.
Now, in the new days, I am a proud Democrat and felt comfortable enough to go door to door in downtown Holland and to even wear my Harris Walz gear while shopping at our local Family Fare (and amazingly even got a few “attaboys” for doing so).
This, the blueing of West Michigan — due to migration from Chicago is the big political story in Michigan. In 2020, Joe Biden actually won Kent County and got 36% in our very, very red county (Allegan — which includes the outskirts of Holland where my people live). Gretchen Whitmer and the Michigan Dems have built on this strength and our numbers are going to go up much more in 2024 (because the area is getting more and more progressive and less conservative).
I just spent the last week canvassing in Ottawa County (downtown Holland is in Ottawa) and was amazed at the level of support for the Democrats. Last Saturday, one voter who we had lit dropped chased after us to give us our lit back because she had already voted for Harris and wanted to be sure we could give it to someone else. The neighborhood — formerly the bastion of Dutch conservatives — was now filled with Harris Walz signs. South Shore Drive — a beautiful waterside road by Lake Macatawa — now has giant Harris Walz signs along with giant Trump flags. Our local rep- Hillary Scholten, is a Democrat.
I went to the Harris Walz rally on Friday at Riverfront park in Grand Rapids and joined a line of thousands waiting to enter the grounds (which made national news). The fact that our nominee would stop in Grand Rapids in late October is just incredible and a sign of changing times..
So, if you are from out of state and are worried about Michigan because you read an article about some folks mad at the ticket because of Gaza and then made the leap that this means we are going to lose Michigan, don’t be. These folks, who most likely have never step foot in the state, don’t understand Michigan or know about (or write about) what is happening in West Michigan.
P.S. Some folks have asked about the math in terms of how West Michigan offsets the impact of Gaza vote. That’s not really my point — my point was to share the good news (and I’m not an expert on the electoral math). But here goes (if others have other data, please share). There are about 200,000 Arab American voters in Michigan. Arab American Institute Poll estimated that Harris is down 17% compared to Biden 2020 numbers (nationally) — so that’s about 34,000 votes. I’d guess the loss will be less — possibly because of offsets with the state’s Jewish population — but could be a 15,000 to 20,000 vote difference. There are about 1.5 million people in Western Michigan. Kent County/Grand Rapids alone had 400,000 voters in 2020. So, 1% to 2% gain is roughly enough to offset any losses. I’d guess we are more likely to see a 5% to 10% range gain in vote share given the leftward trend for that part of the state. Also other GOP areas in the state are shrinking not growing (West Michigan is growing). It’s amazing to me how little attention is paid to West Michigan by election analysts given its importance to the state’s vote.
P.P.S. Thanks for all the great comments, shared memories about Holland and West Michigan from Michiganders. I recommend reading about Holland, it has a fascinating history (Dutch majority, conservative, very religious city). Wanted to clarify that I am saying West Michigan is becoming more democratic, not majority democratic (I wish). That (majority Dem majorities) is happening, just barely, in Kent County and Kalamazoo but other parts — like Ottawa and Allegan — while still majority Republican are becoming more democratic (and that is worth a lot of new votes for the Dems). The trend is amazing — people used be scared to admit they were Democrats at all, now they are putting signs in their yards. This still takes courage, one fellow volunteer in the local campaign office (Ottawa County Dems) shared how a friend’s daughter was recently fired for talking about her (progressive) politics at work (which she only did after she could not take the constant MAGA drumbeat any more).
