What is a 77 year old candidate doing contesting a critical swing seat in Michigan? Given the ageism running rampant in this election, that is a good question. But the Detroit Free Press still found Carl Marlinga as sharp as a tack when interviewing him earlier this year.
Voters who aren’t familiar with Marlinga or his record may view his age, 77, as cause for concern, particularly in an election cycle influenced by voter trepidation about older candidates. But he approaches elected office with vigor and curiosity, tempered by the wisdom and pragmatism of his decades in public service.
He’s been serving Macomb County for over 40 years now — first as a prosecutor and then as a judge. He has done his time and has every right to pursue this as the capstone of his career. But as you will see in his bio , he is no vanity candidate seeking the limelight. He will be a workhorse in Congress unlike the empty suit known as Rep. John James.
The question for Carl Marlinga is whether he can win the district that got away from Democrats in 2022.
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Rep. John James is part of what I am calling the #MAGADozen. These Republicans in GOP-leaning swing districts are full-throated MAGA supporters and can be beaten. Carl Marlinga is one of the 15 challengers in Trump-won districts I am covering!
Carl Marlinga for Michigan-10
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS HOUSE RACE IS RATED AS LEANS REPUBLICAN, with an R+3 PVI
Precinct level results for MI-10 in 2022.
When you think of the term Reagan Democrat, Macomb County should be one of the first destinations to see their political strength. This has caused this version of the 10th district (and the county as a whole) to swing back and forth between the parties based upon who can appeal to the blue-collar working class white vote found in the county.
However, Macomb County has undergone quite a few changes recently of note. Warren and Eastpointe are attracting middle-class Black denizens from Detroit as Southfield fills up. White flight from the rest of the Detroit Metro Area continues into upper Macomb County, which has had profound effects politically.
In terms of recent elections, Trump converted those Reagan Democrats to his cause in winning the county twice, and this district twice (he won 49.8% to 48.8% in 2020). At the same time though, Gretchen Whitmer won the county (and thus this district) in her 2018 and 2022 campaigns for governor. This county is probably one of the more critical swing counties in the entire state, and this district may prove to be one that may decide control of Congress come November.
As for the 10th district, it was assumed that John James had it in the bag in 2022. He had near-universal name recognition from his two straight Senate runs and he had bonkers fundraising totals for a non-incumbent. But elections are funny things and Democrats ran Carl Marlinga — a local judge and prosecutor with a lifetime of service. His underfunded campaign nearly pulled off the upset. James won 48.8% to 48.3%, or about 1600 votes. A leftist gadfly received 5900 votes and the Libertarian received 3500 votes. Those third-party votes may have made the difference.
326k people voted in the 2022 election for Michigan-10, while 399k voted the the district that matches most closely to this district in 2020 (Michigan lost a district in reapportionment after the 2020 Census). There is a small drop-off in voting from the district and I cannot help but wonder if the missing voters are more favorable to Trump. Because the districts got scrambled in redistricting, it is difficult to tell.
Carl Marlinga is once again our nominee for this district in 2024 but he didn’t have a clear path in the Democratic primary. 66k people voted and Marlinga received 49.1% of the vote. His closest challenger got 24.6% of the vote. It is clear that the Democrats of Macomb County think Marlinga should have the opportunity of beating Rep. John James.
Here’s where this 10th district race will be won.
- Warren, Roseville, and Eastpointe: This is the heart of the Democratic vote in the district. Eastpointe is now majority Black, and Warren and Roseville are where many of the Reagan Democrats reside. Marlinga is going to have to post stellar margins in all three cities in order to overcome other places.
- Rochester and Rochester Hills: These cities are traditionally conservative, and they narrowly voted for Biden in 2020. Marlinga needs to do better in these swing cities in order to actually win the district. James is from Oakland County, which makes it all the more difficult.
- Mount Clemens and Clinton Township: This city and township are exceptions to the trend of Macomb County getting more red as you travel north. There is a strong union vote in this city, and Marlinga will have to tap into that vote if he is to have any chance of winning come November. Clinton Township narrowly voted for Biden and Marlinga needs to win it.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Sterling Heights and Utica: These cities are more traditionally conservative, but Trump won them handily both times. Marlinga will have to cut into the margins here in order to eke out a victory. Merely matching Biden’s numbers in both of these cities won’t be enough to win.
- St. Clair Shores, Fraser: These cities are once again areas where Trump won, albeit more narrowly than Sterling Heights and Utica. Marlinga is either going to have to flip these cities or at the very least make them 50-50 cities in order to win the district.
- The Townships: We’ve now reached the white flight areas of Macomb County. Shelby Township. Macomb Township, and Harrison Township all voted for Trump by significant margins, and all three are safely red. Marlinga needs to focus on turning out the loyal voters that can be found here and activating new voters in other portions of the district to win.
Carl Marlinga: A Lifetime of Service
Will a lifetime of service for Macomb County be enough to overcome Rep. John James?
Carl Marlinga received his undergraduate degree from the University of Detroit Mercy, summa cum laude. He earned his JD from the University of Michigan Law School. Prior to joining the Michigan 16th district court, Marlinga was in private practice from 2004 to 2012. He served as the Macomb County Prosecutor from 1985 to 2004, and previously worked as an assistant United States Attorney. Marlinga has worked as an adjunct professor for the Wayne State University criminal justice department, teaching Constitutional Criminal Procedure and the American Court System.
Carl Marlinga has made defending democracy one of the centerpieces of his campaign. In an interview with the Detroit Free Press editorial board, Marlinga said he is running because he wants to protect democracy: "Jan. 6 of 2021 happened...I want to be in the House of Representatives on Jan. 6, 2025 ... I don’t want Donald Trump and his forces to hijack the election. Or if the election is thrown into the House, I don’t want there to be one more Republican vote, because I need to save democracy.
Another issue Marlinga cites as important is abortion rights. Marlinga believes that abortion is a personal decision that should be made with guidance from a doctor. He will be a vote to codify Roe into law and a vote to protect IVF access and the right to contraception and birth control. He also mentions tackling the issue of the misleading “crisis pregnancy centers”.
When it comes to the Great Lakes, Marlinga also has strong views on the topic. He writes on his campaign website “We are blessed to live in communities surrounded by life-giving water. It is our responsibility as well as my top priority to ensure our lakes and rivers are clean for generations to come. As the Macomb County Prosecutor, I fought to protect our national treasures and the lake is cleaner now because of some of those efforts but the commitment of the EPA and the state is not what it should be. I pledge to strengthen the EPA and clean up our waters while in Congress.”
Marlinga also is strong on prosecuting white-collar criminals. These rich people who prey upon hard-working Americans often get jokes for sentences which is not much of a deterrent. Marlinga would introduce legislation to increase criminal penalties for white-collar crimes. That’s definitely a message I can get behind! Finally, Marlinga witnessed the results of gun violence every day while working. He supports safe storage laws, enhanced background checks, and even an assault weapons ban!
Among his other priorities: Universal day care, clean drinking water, subsidized home repair loans — “A neighborhood gets better one home at a time” — and the need to strengthen America’s manufacturing sector. He’s forged relationships with other lawmakers at every level of government who share his approach to office.
Carl Marlinga has a great background and hits the right notes on the issues for this district. He won’t be a progressive darling but he will be a solid addition to our caucus.
Rep. John James: He’s No John McCain
Despite his backstory having some similarities to him, Rep. John James is no McCain.
Rep. John James was born in Southfield, Michigan in 1981. He graduated from West Point in 2004 and served eight years in the US Army during multiple tours in Iraq as an Apache helicopter pilot. He attended US Army Ranger School and was tabbed as captain. James has MBAs from both Penn State University and the University of Michigan in different narrow subject fields.
Upon leaving the Army and finishing college, James joined James Group International — a supply chain management service business founded by his father. He eventually became president of that company and CEO of Renaissance Global Logistics which was a subsidiary of James Group International. He was touted as a Detroit Business Journal 30 under 30 in 2012 and Michigan Chronicle 40 under 40 in 2014 for his business acumen.
In 2018, John James would run for the US Senate seat held by Sen. Debbie Stabenow. He kept the race to a respectable margin despite the blue-wave election and being a first-time candidate. He was touted as a rising star in the Michigan Republican Party after that result and was the frontrunner for the other Senate seat in 2020.
Now, I will admit that I came close to voting for John James in 2020. This was in my days of being a moderate Republican. He seemed to have a compelling background and Sen. Gary Peters is one of those milquetoast Democratic candidates that dislike. Being in Arizona for his first run for Senate I had no idea about his extreme stances he took to win the 2018 Republican primary election. He looked like he had the potential in my mind to be a maverick like deceased Sen. John McCain.
Rep. John James is no John McCain.
When it comes to women’s rights, James has a putrid record. He wants to completely defund Planned Parenthood. He compared abortion rights to genocide and claims that he will “always be” pro-life. In Congress, James supported restricting access to abortion medication and criminalizing doctors who provide abortions. He even signed onto supporting the Life at Conception Act before the IVF backlash made him backpedal on that bill.
After losing the 2020 Senate election, Rep. John James mirrored his leader Donald Trump in claiming the results were marred by fraud. He refused to concede the election for a long time and even raised money for legal challenges to Wayne County ballots. Of course there was no evidence of any electoral chicanery and James couldn’t even offer any explanation. After about a month of election challenges, James finally conceded. John McCain wouldn’t have contested an election like that!
Back in his first Senate run, James decried the ACA and wanted it repealed and replaced. That stance quickly disappeared once he won the primary election and he refused to take a stance on a lawsuit seeking to overturn the ACA before the Supreme Court. He eventually waffled to a position where he wanted the ACA to be upheld in court because there was no replacement plan in place.
It is his sycophancy to Trump that is most repugnant. James refuses to criticize Trump publicly, but in private he has some choice words for the former President. He claims that it is pointless to publicly criticize the party leader and that “access” to the man is the only way to help Black people. What a load of hogwash and a two-faced hypocrite.
Oh, and he also has some shady stock trades.
Part of me cannot let go of the myth of John McCain. It’s my Republican roots. Luckily for me, Rep. John James doesn’t act like or vote like McCain in the slightest.
How Can You Help?
Carl Marlinga has traditionally been a poor fundraiser but he kicked it up a notch during the Q3 reporting period. Marlinga outraised the fundraising juggernaut incumbent $1.6M to $1.5M. Marlinga has been efficient with his money too! He has $1.3M for the final stretch. Rep. John James still has more with $2.5M to spend. I was afraid the challenger would be drowned by money but clearly that is no longer the case.
In terms of independent expenditures, The House Majority PAC (the ally of the DCCC) has spent more than $4.1M on this race so far while the Congressional Leadership Fund (the ally of the NRCC) has spent a little more than $2.3M. What a difference two years makes as this race attracted no attention in 2022!
I’m having trouble finding events for Carl Marlinga on Mobilize specific to his campaign. It is best to inquire using NGPVAN on the “Volunteer” link listed at the top and the bottom of this article. One may also enter their zip code on Mobilize (if you live near the district) and see what tangential events one can attend that would help Marlinga at the same time!
Carl Marlinga is counting on name recognition and a lifetime of service to matter in the critical Macomb County portion of the district. His cache with Reagan Democrats is important in a district Trump is more likely than not to carry again. If he can win the Macomb County portion while holding his own in Oakland County he has a decent chance of winning.
Rep. John James is thankfully someone I declined to vote for. I once thought him similar to John McCain when his voting record makes it clear that he’s no McCain. He has tried to straddle the line between conservative and MAGA with no maverick votes in sight. He sits in the 16th most vulnerable seat held by the GOP. I predict he will attempt to run statewide once again so it is important to defeat him now to make him a three-time loser.
Two polls have recently come out for this race. One from the DCCC (not unbiased) shows a dead heat at 47% each. The other poll is an independent one that shows Marlinga within the margin for error but behind 47% to 44%. It is clear that this race will go down to the wire but that James has a small advantage.
The question for Carl Marlinga is can he flip the district that got away from Democrats in 2022.
Carl Marlinga for Michigan-10
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