I find myself in an odd position—being reluctant to trust polling. Specifically, national polling. It’s become obvious that pollsters are scared of underestimating Trump support for a third time. But we’re at a point where polling is so far at variance with what’s actually happening on the ground that you have to take it with a grain of salt.
Back in 2020, Cook Political Report House editor Dave “I’ve seen enough” Wasserman reminded us that we should actually be watching district-level polling.
I had to remember that when I initially swallowed hard at polling averages moving in Trump’s direction. But while unpacking our stuff from our move to West Michigan, I had a chance to see a number of telling signs at the district level that suggest Democrats have the momentum for now—but it is incumbent upon the blue team to finish it.
First off, PA-10, anchored by Harrisburg and York. This was the scene of what may be the first “holy effing crap” poll of the cycle. Six-term Republican Scott Perry, who has managed to fend off Democratic challengers even after his seat got significantly less red in the 2018 court-ordered remap of Pennsylvania’s districts, is now in the race of his life. Earlier this month, Susquehanna Polling & Research, based in Harrisburg, dropped a poll showing Perry trailing his Democratic challenger, former television anchorwoman Janelle Stelson, by a whopping NINE points. Moreover, she’s absolutely destroying Perry in fundraising, with a war chest three times that of Perry. We’re talking about a district located in what has historically been some of the reddest territory in the Northeast, and in an area where paid media is really cheap.
SP&R ranks 66th in FiveThirtyEight’s pollster rankings—in the top fourth. But there have been some even bigger tells in the last few weeks that this is actually real. First, Speaker Mike Johnson himself visited Harrisburg to campaign for Perry (diaried by Gramarye here). Second, Cook Political Report moved the race to a pure toss-up (diaried by yours truly here).
But the biggest tell of all? In the weeks since SP&R’s poll dropped, there has been no internal polling from the NRCC to counter the indication of a Stelson lead. No “red wave” pollsters have weighed in either, even as they’re flooding the zone with polls showing Trump ahead. That’s especially staggering considering SP&R has Harris leading this district as well, 46-41. To my mind, that can only mean that the red team knows Perry is losing, and they can’t press their thumbs on the scale nearly hard enough to overcome it. This makes it hard to believe that Sen. Bob Casey’s race is only a tossup; there is no world in which this district goes blue and Casey doesn’t win a fourth term.
Another tell about how the race really looks is to the east, in the Lehigh Valley’s PA-07. Earlier this month, Muhlenberg College, based in Allentown, came out with a poll showing Rep. Susan Wild well on her way to a fourth term; she leads Republican challenger Ryan McKenzie 51-45. At the presidential level, Harris leads Trump 50-47. This is classic Reagan Democrat territory, and since the 1990s has been considered a bellwether for the entire state. Simply put, there is no universe in which Harris wins this district and doesn’t win Pennsylvania. And as we all know, if Harris wins Pennsylvania, she wins the White House.
With this in mind, it’s rather telling that no NRCC or “red wave” polling has come out from this district either. Maybe they know Muhlenberg has long been among the best pollsters in the business, ranking 11th at FiveThirtyEight. Indeed, the only internal poll for this district was in July, right around the time Biden was facing pressure to pull out. After all, in the event of a red tsunami, Wild would be among the first Dems to go.
All of this is why I took Franklin & Marshall’s poll of Pennsylvania with a huge grain of salt. While Harris led registered voters 48-44, Trump led likely voters 50-49. Pennsylvania elections analyst Joshua Smithley noticed that Franklin & Marshall all but admitted they changed their methodology to keep from underestimating Trump.
And yet, data from a bellwether district Harris has to win in order to carry Pennsylvania, as well as a district that has historically been rock-ribbed Republican, shows the blue team has the edge. This simply doesn’t square with a Trump lead. Not by a longshot.
Two other benchmarks come from swingy districts in Virginia. In VA-02, based in Virginia Beach, a poll from Christopher Newport University’s Wason Center in nearby Newport News shows freshman Repub Rep. Jen Kiggans has a fight on her hands for a second term. She trails Democratic challenger Missy Cotter Smsal by just one point, 46-45. That same poll found Harris leading Trump here, 47-45, while Tim Kaine leads Republican challenger Hung Cao 50-43. Wason looks very solid, ranking 20th at FiveThirtyEight.
On Wednesday night, the DCCC dropped an internal poll with almost identical numbers—this time showing Kiggans in a flat-footed tie with Cotter Smasal.
This is in a district carried by Glenn Youngkin 53-45, and which has historically leaned red at the national level. Indeed, it was also redrawn to be slightly more Republican in the last round of redistricting, a big reason Kiggans was able to upend Democrat Elaine Luria in 2022. If Trump were the one with momentum, there is no way Harris leads here, and Kiggans would have long since salted a second term away. As it stands now, the former Navy helicopter pilot may be flying into some headwinds from above the ticket.
To the west is VA-07, which is being vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger ahead of her run for governor. The Dem running here is former NSC official Eugene Vindman, twin brother of Alexander Vindman, the hero of the Trump-Ukraine scandal. An internal poll from Republican challenger Derrick Alexander has virtually no good news for the red team.
Youngkin carried this district 55-43 in 2021, and the territory now in this district included some of the first areas where the old-line Byrd Democrats started splitting their tickets—as far back as the 1930s. Given Spanberger’s close race in 2022 (she represented a version of the district more centered on the Richmond area from 2019 to 2023), if Trump were leading, this seat would be among the first to go red. While it’s heartening to see Eugene is well on his way to helping gain some justice for his family after how Trumpworld did it so dirty, it’s even more heartening to see that Harris is holding the line here.
Add it up, and it looks like that if Trump really had the edge, Harris would be cratering at district level like Hillary was at this stage in 2016. We’re not seeing that here. No matter how much Repub-leaning pollsters are trying to load the deck, it’s clear the Democrats have the edge. But it’s equally clear that we have an assignment—and must complete it.
