It’s the economy, stupid. That’s what Republicans claimed would drive the 2024 election cycle, at least.
But a funny thing is happening: President Joe Biden has presided over an economy that is the envy of the world, and people are feeling better and better about their financial situation.
So GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has pivoted to hating on trans people.
“In the past five weeks, Trump’s operation has spent more than $29 million on TV ads criticizing Vice President Kamala Harris for supporting transgender surgeries for inmates and illegal immigrants in detention, according to data from the media tracking firm AdImpact,” Marc Caputo reports for The Bulwark. “That makes the topic, by far, the biggest focal point when it comes to Trump’s ad spending—one of the best barometers of messaging priority there is. By contrast, the campaign has spent $5 million over that same time period on TV ads on the economy, making that topic their fifth-most emphasized.”
This is a stunning reversal on GOP messaging, from “The economy is bad and Republicans/Trump can make it better,” to “Please hate Kamala Harris as much as you hate Trump.” It’s the only reason to focus on an issue—gender-affirming surgery for inmates—that seemingly has affected all of two people and was also a factor during Trump’s presidency.
Put another way, the Trump campaign is deemphasizing the issue voters say is their No. 1 concern and focusing on something that is of marginal importance.
This isn’t the first time Republicans have tried to center a campaign around transphobia. In 2016, North Carolina Republican Gov. Pat McCrory lost reelection (in a Southern state!) by centering his campaign around a weird anti-trans bathroom bill.
It’s not as if Republicans haven’t lost on the issue before (and lots of times). It’s that Trump thinks he knows better. And it’s true: The usual political rules don’t apply to him.
In this case, the tactic is a desperate attempt to arrest the rapid rise in Harris’ favorability ratings, to the point where the Democratic presidential nominee is vastly more popular than Trump. Indeed, in the news organization's latest poll, The Associated Press found that Harris had a 50-45 favorable-unfavorable rating. Trump lagged far behind at 40-57. It doesn’t help the Republican ticket that Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance is at 32-48, while the Democratic nominee for vice president, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, is at 41-36. That Republican ticket is just putrid.
But if the anti-trans ads are meant to drag down Harris’ favorables, that’s just not showing up in the polling. Looking at that AP poll’s trend lines, Harris was at 48-45 in early August. Her unfavorables haven’t budged, even as she’s gained slightly in favorables. And this is one of those places where Civiqs’ tracking polls offer a granular look at what, if anything, might be making the numbers move. And just look at those Harris trend lines over the past three months:
Those numbers are locked in, as are Trump’s.
The Trump campaign’s strategy is, of course, deeply damaging and hurtful to the trans community, but Republicans don’t give a damn. The question is whether the party’s core voters will reward that mean-spiritedness or not.
In fact, the stakes are even higher than that. If Trump loses—or even better, if he loses big—it might finally signal to the neanderthals running GOP campaigns that demonizing our most vulnerable citizens maybe isn’t the way for Republicans to win elections. And if Trump wins? God help us.
We must fight hard to make sure that doesn’t happen.
