Introduction to the madness
Trump’s closing argument promises neo-Nazi fascism, a war on the “enemy within,” and deporting every “illegal alien.” The first would destroy democracy. The second would crush dissent. The third would bankrupt the country. What could go wrong?
The first two are self-evident. So let’s take a look at the third. Being a Trump plan, the rational thinker will assume mass deportations would be massively expensive — if they could be realized. An analyst could start with Trump’s first immigration asinity — the billion-dollar border wall boondoggle. Then multiply the cost and futility of that stupidity by orders of magnitude.
The direct cost
Here is a breakdown.
The expense of deporting every undocumented alien can be divided into three. The cost of deporting someone already in custody. The cost of finding everyone eligible for deportation. And the economic harm to the economy — both in terms of loss of tax revenue and the impact on GDP.
According to a CBS News analysis of federal data, over the last five fiscal years, it cost an estimated average of c.$20.000 to deport one person. That figure is based the the apprehension of an undocumented immigrant living in the U.S., detention, the immigration court process and transport out of the country.
The math is straightforward. According to Pew Research, there are 11 million people illegally in the US. To remove them at the CBS estimated cost per removal would equal $220 billion.
But that number is a massive underestimation. The people currently removed are the lowest-hanging (i.e. least expensive) fruit. On addition, to ramp up deportations the feds would have to hire more people to reach the goal. Everything from more CBP and ICE officers and support staff; to immigration court judges, lawyers, and staff; to detention officers and staff. They would also have to build more detention centers and courts. And buy more uniforms, guns, vehicles, computers, and all the other logistical necessities.
How many and how much? It’s hard to say. Trump does not offer a timeline for his mass deportation. But for the sake of argument, let’s say he means in the four years of his putative second term. The US currently deports c.380,000 people a year (note Biden is deporting people quicker than any time since Bush’s second term).
To reach the four-year goal, deportations would have to increase to 2.75 million a year. Plus any new undocumented aliens arriving — currently c.600,000 a year — for a total of 3.35 million. Or 9x the current number.
As I said above, the US is currently deporting the easiest to find. As the deportation rate increases the average cost to deport will increase. How much? Who knows? If we say an additional 5O% per, the cost is now $300 billion. And that is without the cost of increasing the personnel, materiel, and new building construction by a factor of nine. Now you are talking real money.
And because this is a government program it will cost more than the estimate. So what is the real number? $500 billion. $1 trillion? $2 trillion? Nobody knows.
You have to imagine there is a better use for the money. Especially as removing all these workers would harm the economy.
The economic cost
Trump can say what he wants. MAGA can believe what it wants. But only morons think that immigrants are taking the jobs Americans want. The cost of deporting all the undocumented who work in agriculture, meat processing, hospitality, construction, property maintenance, etc. Is high.
Anti-immigration zealots falsely claim that immigrants cost the government more by using public services than they contribute by paying taxes. For instance, these sophists do not usually factor in sales taxes, or property taxes as part of their rent, or all the benefits of social security taxes deducted without the concomitant cost of social security benefits paid out.
And these self-serving but fallacious estimates of the cost of the undocumented do not mention that the blow to GDP in booting them all out would result in lower tax revenues — local, federal, and state — that are paid because of these workers economic contributions. Big-buck senior executives, and medium-buck middle managers of companies that hire undocumented aliens earn a taxable salary due to these workers.
In addition, consider this capitalist truism. Companies hire workers who make company owners money. No sane manager hires employees who cost more than the return on their wages and benefits. Ergo, these undocumented workers are profit centers. Those profits go back into the economy. And, as mentioned above, no American worker is going to step in to replace that lost profit.
The price of hate
Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric is no better than his anti-trans oratory. In one way it's worse. The targets of both are marginalized and powerless people who have done nothing to deserve the vitriol.
But while anti-trans hate has little economic cost. Immigrant bashing will cost the average American more at the dinner table, in getting their lawn mowed, or staying in a hotel. And that would be on top of the extra expense they will have to bear in buying stuff priced higher to account for Trump’s tariffs.
What a shit show.
