We are a little over a week out from the Most Important Election of Our Lifetimes, and people are losing their minds as they fret over the latest poll. Some compare this year’s environment with 2016, or dig into crosstabs to “unskew” results, or, worst of all, cherry-pick data that looks bad for Vice President Kamala Harris, giving themselves even more reason to panic.
Chill, everyone. Almost nothing has changed in the race for months. This is a get-out-the-vote election. The side that works hardest will win. And the data supports that conclusion.
Given that a good ground game can mean 2 to 3 points to a candidate, 538’s polling aggregates essentially shows all seven battleground states within the margin of turnout, as of Friday at 10:30 AM ET.
538 includes a lot of “red wave” pollsters—polling firms run by conservatives with a clear partisan bent. Some of those firms were part of the reason that everyone expected a red wave in 2022 that never materialized. Compounding that problem, polling is expensive, and struggling media organizations have strongly cut back on the number of polls they run, giving the red-wave pollsters even more weight in the averages.
The Washington Post excludes many of those junky pollsters, and their toplines look different as a result:
However, The Washington Post’s inclusion and exclusion of pollsters may itself introduce its own kind of bias, giving an overly optimistic view of the race! This isn’t a question of “choose your most favorable aggregator,” but a reminder that these organizations are all doing, at best, educated guessing.
On top of that, many pollsters may even be “herding”—that is, weighting their polls to show a “tied” race so they can’t be wrong about who won. It’s a form of hedging to protect their reputations (and the future of their companies).
But no matter which average you look at, the race is within the margin of turnout. And there are key dynamics at play in the final days of the race, many of which I’ve written about in the last week:
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Trump is relying on young men as part of the low-propensity voters he must turn out to win. Usually, it’s Democrats who have to drag reluctant voters to the polls, but this time, Republicans are having to turn out the demographic least likely to. Looking at some of the early data, it’s not working so far (though young people are more likely to vote on Election Day).
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Yes, undecided voters are frustrating and ridiculous, but we need them. And the data suggests that if they turn out, it’ll benefit Harris. (More on that below.)
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The Harris campaign’s game plan is focused on get-out-the-vote operations and a final media persuasion push to get those on-the-fence-but-Harris-leaning voters out to the polls.
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The late-breaking voters appear to be going for Harris. Again, GOTV is critical to capture these less engaged voters.
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There are fierce ongoing battles for Latino and Arab voters.
A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Friday shows the national race tied at 48% in a head-to-head matchup, with 4% of likely voters remaining undecided. However, the poll finds that the 15% who “described themselves as not fully decided” lean toward Harris.
What’s more, there is supposedly a bigger universe of “uncommitted” voters. That includes undecided voters but also others who lean one way or the other yet claim a willingness to change their vote.
A Washington Post/Schar School poll of battleground states found that 21% of likely voters fell into that “uncommitted” bucket, and it included a high share of young voters (many of whom, remember, weren’t politically conscious for the first Trump presidency) and a third of voters of color. In other words, Harris has room to grow.
Last week, too, a national poll from Emerson College showed late-breakers heavily swinging toward Harris: “Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%. … The three percent of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%.”
This makes a lot of sense. Trump is a known quantity. He’s been running for president for basically nine years, while Harris became a presidential contender about three months ago.
All three of these polls suggest Harris is winning the final arguments. Either that, or Trump’s ongoing brutal news cycle is finally taking some toll.
One final note: Harris continues to crush Trump in fundraising—$97 million to $16 million in the first two weeks of October. And raising this kind of cash shows which side has the stronger grassroots support. Those donations directly invest those donors in Harris’ victory. That means they’ll work harder to do what needs to be done to get out the vote. And it means Harris has volunteers to do GOTV (you guys!), while Trump has to rely on Elon Musk’s paid canvassers … who are, in large numbers, not doing what they’re being paid to do. Is there anything more delicious than Musk being defrauded by his own shitty ground game?
As I’ve repeatedly said, this race will be decided by the side that works harder. And right now, we’re outworking them.
Don’t stop. In fact, amp it up.
Leave everything on the road.
Let's get to work electing Kamala Harris our next president! Sign up for as many shifts as you can between now and Nov. 5 to talk with progressive voters in key states who might not turn out without hearing from you!