Like quite a few of these final races I am writing about, this race was one of the ones that wasn’t initially on my radar. Yet someone is not believing the public polling out for this race because national groups are sounding the alarm about California’s 49th district.
In one of San Diego County's most closely watched races, incumbent Rep. Mike Levin (D) is vying to keep his seat in the 49th Congressional District against Republican challenger Matt Gunderson.
The district, which spans from southern Orange County down the San Diego coast to Del Mar and includes the Camp Pendleton Marine base, was last won by Levin in 2022 with a narrow 5% lead over a Republican opponent who is not running this year.
Gunderson, who previously ran in a competitive 2022 State Senate race, could be a formidable contender.
In a recent poll conducted by SurveyUSA, Levin is leading Gunderson by 10 points. His appeal appears particularly strong among younger voters, with 58% of surveyed individuals aged 18 to 34 indicating their support for him.
Levin's past campaign efforts gained national attention, including a rally appearance by President Joe Biden in San Diego ahead of the 2022 general election.
With both parties eyeing the 49th District as a potential flip, this contest is shaping up to be one of the most competitive congressional races in the region.
I still think that Levin will be okay in the end but I cannot deny that this district is regressing from a Democratic-leaning seat to nearly a tossup. This is despite voter registration numbers continuing to look good for Democrats. It’s the NPA voters though who decide the district.
In California’s 49th Congressional District, Democrats continue to hold a 14,000+ voter registration advantage and the district continues to trend away from Republicans. Since 2016, Republicans have lost 5 points in their registration share while Democrats have picked up nearly 6 points.
The question for Rep. Mike Levin is as follows: what’s the deal with this district suddenly becoming competitive?
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Rep. Mike Levin is a potentially vulnerable incumbent. The Democratic Party is spending quite a bit on independent expenditures on his behalf. That is why I’ve included him in a group of 28 incumbents or open-seat races we are defending.
Mike Levin for California-49
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What’s the Big Idea?
CA-49 results in 2022 by precinct.
THIS HOUSE RACE IS RATED AS LEANS DEMOCRATIC, with a D+3 PVI
This district, like many of the suburbs of southern California, used to be staunchly Republican in nature. In fact, this district had continuous GOP representation from the creation of this district all the way until 2018. In recent times, car thief Rep. Darrell Issa was the representative from this district. He was one of the wealthiest members of Congress and difficult to dislodge.
A funny thing happened in 2016 — he finally faced notable opposition in Colonel Douglas Applegate. In one of the closest races that year, Applegate held Rep. Issa to a very narrow 50.3%-49.7% win. It was the closest race of Issa’s career. It showed how far this district had come from its GOP roots, as Hillary Clinton carried the district as well.
This close race was enough to send Issa to the exit in 2018, and the blue-wave that year helped us flip the district. In the end, it wasn’t even a close race. Environmental attorney Mike Levin got into the Top 2 primary and faced off against an undistinguished GOP opponent. He had a slightly more difficult race in 2020, but he still won with relative ease. Biden carried this district 54.6% to 43.2% at the same time which is a much better performance than Clinton had four years ago.
Yet in 2022 there was some snapping back in this district. Levin navigated the Top 2 primary and faced the same opponent as in 2020. You’d think that the result would be the same but it turns out that Levin won by a narrower 52.6% to 47.4% — not cause for alarm yet but definitely trending closer in his re-election efforts. 386k voted in the 2020 election and 292k in the 2022 election so there was a definite plummeting in the number of votes.
Here’s where this 49th district race will be won.
- Encinitas, Solana Beach, Del Mar: These suburbs of San Diego have a decided Democratic lean to them these days. The environmentally conscious cities are perfect for Rep. Mike Levin’s messaging, and he needs good turnout here to ensure a fourth term in office.
- Carlsbad, Oceanside, Vista: These suburbs are recent converts to the Democratic Party, and there is a chance that they could backslide to the GOP at any point. As long as Levin is clearing 55% of the vote in each of these three cities, he should be fine for re-election.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Orange County: Consisting of San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano, Dana Point, and Laguna Niguel, the section of Orange County found in this district is much more conservative than the rest of the district. Mike Levin is from this area and will get a home-town boost. Levin won’t win here, but he must put in a respectable showing.
Rep. Mike Levin: Commitment to the Community
Rep. Mike Levin is committed to solving environmental issues in his community and across the US.
Rep. Mike Levin was born in Inglewood, California in 1978 to a Mexican father and a Jewish mother. He grew up celebrating both Catholicism and the Jewish faith. He attended Stanford University and was the student body president while there. Before returning to Orange County, CA he attended law school at Duke University out east in North Carolina.
Levin first became involved in politics when he served as the executive director of the beleaguered Orange County Democratic Party. He grew the party from a rump to a political force to be reckoned with — leading to the Democrats sweeping all of the Congressional seats in the area in 2018. He also was on the National Finance Committee for Hillary Clinton’s 2016 run for President.
Levin has been outstanding in the field of clean energy and the environment for a long time and these values still hold true in Congress. Levin co-founded CleanTech OC which is a clean energy trade association. Levin then went on to work for FlexEnergy, a company that seeks to capture and use methane emissions from landfills and wastewater for energy. He was lauded in OC 40 Under 40 for this effort. He was the director of government affairs at FuelCell Energy from 2014 to 2017. There he opposed the Encina Power Station claiming it would be a setback on clean energy efforts.
Levin also consistently sounds the alarm about the climate crisis. He is so well-known for his efforts on the issue that climate groups make his race a priority when calculating which politicians to support first. Levin proudly passed the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022 but warned that this legislation is only a start to addressing the climate crisis. He argues legislation similar to the Green New Deal is necessary to mitigate the worst climate effects coming like a speeding train.
Levin is the true champion of abortion rights in this competitive race for California’s 49th district. Reproductive Freedom for All gives him a lifetime score of 100% on reproductive rights issues while the “pro-life” groups all give him a 0% score. He repeatedly emphasizes the need for women to have safe and legal abortions if necessary.
Like many suburban Democratic lawmakers, Levin is a staunch proponent of gun safety legislation. He supported the Assault Weapons Ban of 2022 which died in the Senate. He also supported the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act which was made into law. It is clear that gun safety will continue to be an important issue that Levin emphasizes.
Rep. Mike Levin’s slogan is “commitment to the community” and it is clear why. Whether it is abortion rights, the climate crisis, or clean energy there are few more committed to finding solutions than him.
Matt Gunderson: A used Car Lemon
Makes sense that a car dealer like Matt Gunderson is lying to people about his record.
Matt Gunderson doesn’t go much into his background on his campaign website so details about his life are sketchy at best. He currently lives in Ladera Ranch, California. He owned auto dealerships in Mission Viejo, California. The brands he sold tended to be high-end such as Infiniti, Volvo, and Audi. Gunderson gained invitations to serve as Chairman of the Mission Hospital Foundation Board, a member of the Saddleback College Foundation Board, and Chair of the Orange County Auto Dealers Association.
As with many “self-made businessmen”, the truth is that Matt Gunderson received plenty of help from the government. Despite being rejected twice, Gunderson received a hefty “corporate welfare” tax break worth $600k to open his first auto dealership. This sweetheart deal was even rejected twice before his father-in-law intervened and rammed it through city hall. He also applied for PPP loans during the pandemic worth nearly $2M but rejected the Inflation Reduction Act for everyone else needing relief. He turned around and sold his auto dealerships shortly thereafter.
This isn’t Gunderson’s first attempt to enter politics. He ran for the California State Senate in 2022 and lost 52%-48%. He took many problematic political positions that he has tried to run away from in this 2024 race. For instance, he was stridently anti-abortion in 2022 and now claims to be “pro-choice”. He’s even running ads trying to erase his previous record on abortion rights. He may have converted or he may still truly believe his old views. Either way, this flip-flop means he cannot be believed.
Gunderson also is trying to shy away from his past support of Donald Trump. He was a supporter of the former President in 2020 despite claiming not to support him this time around. Gunderson even spread social media posts espousing 2020 election conspiracy theories. He did condemn the insurrection on January 6th but still is in a political party that condones and even celebrates such behavior.
Gunderson may not need to rely on these programs but Social Security and Medicare are on the chopping block if Gunderson is elected. He has advocated for cutting Social Security in the past while campaigning in Wisconsin. He further claimed that because of the debt that seniors will “have to make some sacrifices” on Social Security and Medicare. He’s desperately trying to hide this history from the voters of California’s 49th district.
Matt Gunderson is clearly a lemon in used car terms. He’s trying to show a shiny exterior but there are plenty of problems with how this campaign is being run. Don’t trust a car salesman to be your next member of Congress.
How Can You Help?
Rep. Mike Levin has been a decent but not stellar fundraiser this election cycle. He raised around $1.1M during the Q3 reporting period. Matt Gunderson raised around $350k but also loaned his campaign $1.3M. This self-funding is why Gunderson has been competitive with the incumbent despite not having much fundraising prowess.
This may be why the cavalry is coming to help Levin in terms of independent expenditures. The House Majority PAC has pledged to spend $1.5M to help out our incumbent and has already spent close to $500k of that money. Gunderson is not receiving any outside help. In this district, the minute the challenger receives any sort of help is the minute he gets exposed for the MAGA Republican he actually is.
All of the events on Mobilize I have found for Mike Levin have already ended. That makes sense as most Californians have already voted and only the stragglers remain. If you feel compelled to help Levin chase those last few voters who have not returned their ballots it is best to sign up using the “Volunteer” links at the top and bottom of the article.
Matt Gunderson is in a career which most people think are nearly as bad as politicians — car salesmen. It is clear that he is a lemon and is trying to pass himself off as a reliable moderate Republican in the district. He cannot run from his previous record but people need to be made aware of it. Just because he sounds slick now doesn’t mean the scam won’t come later.
Rep. Mike Levin is committed to tackling the problems of climate change and clean energy. He’s solid on the other issues as well — garnering a 100% score in line with Joe Biden in the 117th Congress. That’s a record that is better than many other swing-seat Democrats. I still don’t believe he truly will be defeated in the 29th most vulnerable seat held by the Democratic Party. Unless there is a complete collapse in California, Levin should be okay.
As revealed in the opener, polling and the Top 2 primary results also indicate that he should be fine. He cleared 50% of the vote in the Top 2 primary in March. SurveyUSA polling found him leading with a similar percentage of the vote — 52% to 41%. It is probable that most of the undecided voters are Republican-leaning and that is why the race will be tighter. However, the fact that he is above 50% once again should be an omen.
The question for Rep. Mike Levin is whether or not he can close the deal and win this late-breaking swing seat.
Mike Levin for California-49
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