I Look at the Polls and I See a Landslide

This scenario isn't as impossible as it looks. Source: 270towin.com

I know the swing state polls can look pretty discouraging, even depressing. Kamala Harris has been a great candidate working her ass off while Donald Trump ramps up the deplorable factor, and the numbers don't budge. If you look at the seven battleground states, they're all essentially tied.

“But Quynn,” you say, “If the polls are tied, how can you possibly see a landslide? You really shouldn't be drinking this early on a Sunday morning.”

Well, maybe not, and perhaps it is too early to celebrate. But the thing is, with the swing states all so close to one another and close to even (I think the worst one is Arizona with Trump +2), that means that if Kamala Harris outperforms the polls by just 3 points she could easily win all of the swing states.

“What makes you think she’ll outperform the polls by 3 points?” you ask.

Look at the early voting.

In Georgia, for example, women are outvoting men by 10 points, 55% to 45%. And the trend is similar in other states.

I know we're not supposed to unskew the polls and I haven't been looking at any cross tabs, but I doubt any of them have their electorate weighted as 55% F and 45% M.

And women are way more likely to vote for Harris than for Trump:

In the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk University national poll, women decisively backed Democrat Kamala Harris, 53% to 36%.

That's a 17 point advantage. And I know those don't add up to 100%, but if you compare just those two numbers it's a 19 point difference.

If things stay this way through Election Day, it seems like Harris has a really good chance of beating the polls by a big enough margin to take all the battleground states, giving Team Blue a total of 319 electoral votes vs. 219 for the Reds.