More good news for Harris regarding her showing with early voters. According CNN, their top line is Harris is leading Trump 48%-47%. However, when they polled those who have already voted, she has a good lead considering more Republicans are voting early this time around. Currently Registered Republicans are have turned out in large numbers more than Democrats so the result is stunning to me.
| Registered Party |
2024 Count |
2024 Perc |
| Democrat |
462,979 |
35.10% |
| Republican |
558,533 |
42.40% |
| Other |
80,336 |
6.10% |
| Unaffiliated |
216,435 |
16.40% |
Their analysis of the early voting numbers is as follows..
Both states have robust early and mail-in ballot voting, and according to the poll, 55% of likely voters in Arizona and 42% in Nevada say they have already voted. In both states, more registered Republicans have cast ballots so far than registered Democrats. In Arizona, that still translates into a Harris advantage among those banked votes (53% of those who say they already voted support her compared with 44% for Trump), but in Nevada, those who’ve already voted tilt in the former president’s favor (52% Trump to 46% Harris).
Anecdotally, it seems like she is doing well with unaffiliated voters as that has to be the only way she is wiping out the Republican advantage. In addition, I think she is getting a sizeable Republican vote. Lets see how Tuesday plays out!
UPDATE about 2020
Joe Biden won Arizona 49.4% to 49.1%.
Here was the final breakdown in 2020:
| Registered Party |
2020 Count |
2020 Perc |
| Democrat |
1,391,769 |
41% |
| Republican |
1,742,354 |
51.40% |
| Unaffiliated |
258,048 |
7.60% |
This shows that in 2024, Republicans are turning out at a higher rate (almost 5%) but yet she is still winning handily
