One Way to Use ChatGPT Effectively
Several diaries have mentioned using ChatGPT to run predictions. Such predictions are only going to be as good as the data inputs, the parameters set, and the various methods run.
One simplified way to use ChatGPT to get focused insight on emerging trends in the data is to plug in a few numbers, set some preliminary assumptions, outline a selected range of scenarios, and solve for a specific variable.
Question: How Many Republicans Are Defecting to Harris in Michigan’s Early Vote?
Background:
CNN’s poll of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania released today reports that Kamala Harris is leading with 61% of the early vote in Michigan, compared to 35% for Donald Trump.
NBC’s Early Voting portal page for Michigan, drawing on TargetSmart voter modeling, indicates the party registration breakdown among Michigan early voters as follows:
- Democrats: 47%
- Republicans: 42%
- Independents: 11%
Preliminary Assumptions:
- Democratic Voters: Voting 95% for Harris, 5% for Trump.
- Independent Voter Scenarios: Republican defection is estimated under five independent voting split scenarios.
Results: Republican Defection Rates by Independent Voter Splits
|
Independent Split
|
GOP->Harris
|
GOP->Trump
|
|
80:20
|
17.98%
|
82.02%
|
|
75:25
|
19.29%
|
80.71%
|
|
70:30
|
20.60%
|
79.40%
|
|
65:35
|
21.90%
|
78.10%
|
|
60:40
|
23.21%
|
76.79%
|
Base Calculations
The Republican defection rates are derived from the following general formula, based on early voting data:
Key Variables:
- P_Dems: Percentage of early voters registered as Democrats (47%).
- P_Reps: Percentage of early voters registered as Republicans (42%).
- P_Inds: Percentage of early voters registered as Independents (11%).
- H_Dems: Percentage of Democrats voting for Harris (95%).
- H_Inds: Percentage of Independents voting for Harris (varies by scenario).
Objective: Solve for x, the percentage of Republicans voting for Harris.
Formula for Harris’s Total Early Voting Support:
61% = (P_Dems × H_Dems) + (P_Inds × H_Inds) + (P_Reps × x)
Rearranging, we solve for x in each independent scenario, where GOP->Harris = x and GOP->Trump = 1 - x.
Pithy Conclusion Courtesy of Good Will GPT
If we are indeed looking at a reasonable range of GOP defections, if we do indeed have a likely range of Harris’ numbers of GOP voters, well then, how d’ya like them apples?
………….
Follow-up: also posted to DKos a similar analysis of GOP defections in Wisconsin’s early vote…
………
Follow-up 2: Simon Rosenburg just noted (time index 11:00) that about “15-20%” of Republicans are “non-MAGA” and that the Harris campaign has been effective in persuading them. At time index 37:00, Tom Bonier followed up by noting large margins for Harris among independents (especially new registrants) and lots of crossover Republicans. They are seeing the same patterns. Going forward it will just be a matter of updating and refining them as more and more of the early vote occurs.
