Building on my previous diary about Republican Defection Rates in Michigan’s Early Vote, here is one for Wisconsin’s early vote. The range of possible splits for independent voters had to be narrowed and refined, because Wisconsin has an usually large number of voters unaffiliated with either the Democratic or Republican party. These calculations are also a bit more precise by accounting for some leakage (1% to neither Harris nor Trump).
Question: How Many Republicans Are Defecting to Harris in Wisconsin’s Early Vote?
Background:
CNN’s poll of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania released today estimates that Kamala Harris is leading with 60% of the early vote already cast, compared to 38% for Donald Trump.
NBC’s Early Voting portal page for Wisconsin, drawing on TargetSmart voter modeling, indicates the party registration breakdown among Wisconsin early voters as follows:
- Democrats: 35%
- Republicans: 23%
- Independents: 42%
Preliminary Assumptions
- Democratic Voters: Voting 95% for Harris, 5% for Trump.
- Independent Voter Scenarios: Republican defection is estimated under five independent voting split scenarios (60:39, 57:42, 55:44, 53:46, 51:48).
Results: Republican Defection Rates by Independent Voter Splits
|
Independent Split
|
GOP->Harris
|
GOP->Trump
|
|
60:39
|
6.74%
|
93.26%
|
|
57:42
|
12.22%
|
87.78%
|
|
55:44
|
15.87%
|
84.13%
|
|
53:46
|
19.52%
|
80.48%
|
|
51:48
|
23.17%
|
76.83%
|
Base Calculations
The Republican defection rates are derived from the following general formula based on early voting data:
1. Key Variables:
- P_Dems: 35% (Percentage of early voters registered as Democrats).
- P_Reps: 23% (Percentage of early voters registered as Republicans).
- P_Inds: 42% (Percentage of early voters registered as Independents).
- H_Dems: 95% (Percentage of Democrats voting for Harris).
- H_Inds: Varies by scenario (Percentage of Independents voting for Harris).
2. Formula for Harris’s Total Early Voting Support:
60% = (P_Dems × H_Dems) + (P_Inds × H_Inds) + (P_Reps × x)
Rearranging, we solve for x in each independent scenario, where GOP->Harris = x and GOP->Trump = 1 - x.
