First off — I would be lying if I claimed that I am not nervous about the presidential election outcome this Tuesday. A full eight years later, I am still recovering from the post traumatic stress of the outcome of the 2016 election. At the visceral level, I have that lingering heavy feeling in my gut that something will go wrong on November 5th. After all, I am a Cubs baseball fan and am accustomed to things going awry.
But on closer reflection, I think my gut feeling is dead wrong. I think the aggregated polls, just like in the 2022 midterms, have a significant right wing bias and are heavily skewed in favor of Republican candidates. A closer, more clinical analysis of the current political landscape suggests that there is little reason for fear, particularly with Kamala Harris at the helm. As she gears up to face Donald Trump on November 5, 2024, several key factors indicate that she will likely emerge victorious.
The Fallout from Dobbs: A Mobilizing Force
The Dobbs decision has pissed people off. It has galvanized the Democratic base and women everywhere – even Republican women – and this issue has not gone away. Don’t underestimate the political implications of the Dobbs decision. This ruling has had profound implications. A poll from the Public Religion Research Institute shows that a staggering 70% of Americans disapprove of the Dobbs decision. Women are the lifeblood of the Democratic party and they are energized.
A Democratic Resurgence in 2022
The Democrats’ performance in the 2022 midterm elections should not be ignored or forgotten. Contrary to predictions of a "red wave," Democrats overperformed significantly, maintaining control of the Senate and minimizing losses in the House. This trend indicates a robust Democratic voter base that is engaged and ready to mobilize again in 2024. Additionally, since the Dobbs decision, Democrats have won a significant majority of special elections, underscoring a favorable trajectory heading into the general election.
The Illusion of Polling Tightness
While many polls currently show a close race between Harris and Trump, it’s important to scrutinize the methodology behind these surveys. Aggregators like FiveThirtyEight often include poorly-designed, biased polls that favor Republican interests. These flawed polls can create a misleading narrative of a tight race, which, paradoxically, might serve to galvanize Democratic turnout. When Democrats perceive a competitive landscape, they are more likely to mobilize, driven by the urgency to protect their values.
Early Voting Insights
In states like North Carolina, early voting numbers are through the roof, with Harris outperforming expectations among early voters. This trend indicates a strong enthusiasm among voters, particularly in critical battleground states. High early turnout often serves as an indicator of overall voter engagement, and it bodes well for Harris’s campaign.
Changing Demographics: The New Voter Landscape
Demographic shifts are another vital factor in this election cycle. Many Trump supporters are aging, and a notable portion has even left the electorate since 2020. That is, a sizable number of Fox News-viewing Trump voters have died since 2020. Meanwhile, Harris has the potential to attract younger voters who are increasingly disillusioned with Trump’s antics and policies. Research shows that younger voters are more likely to prioritize issues such as climate change, healthcare, and social justice, areas where Harris can appeal strongly. Young people don’t like Trump.
The Fatigue Factor
Trump talks about weird things – immigrants eating dogs and cats. People are tired of Trump. Fewer people attend his low energy rallies and they leave early when they do attend. "Trump fatigue" is a real thing, and it has set in. I predict that Republican turnout will be surprisingly low.. The "Trump fatigue" phenomenon contrasts sharply with the energy and determination seen among Democratic voters, particularly women and younger constituents.
Harris will win.
The Harris campaign has more money for the home stretch. Democrats are excited. They will not stay home. Democrats will turn out in droves. Remember that there are more of us than there are of them and that Donald Trump has not attracted any new voters since 2020.
We.Will Win. And with a little luck – with room to spare.
