GOTV Canvass (Midweek) Report from AZ, FL, GA, MI, NC, OH, PA & TX

Hope Springs from Field PAC’s [website] volunteers have now been canvassing GOTV targets for 5 days (or nights) straight.  This is the point where the exhaustion starts to set it, and you start looking for that next spark.  

Heard a new one this week: a voter in Texas said she couldn’t tell our volunteer who she was voting for “because there are spies everywhere.  I don’t know who has access to your data.”

We think she’s a Harris voter SE of San Antonio and marked her accordingly.  We asked if we could “flag” her house (put an American flag at the end of her driveway to help us find supporter’s houses this weekend through Election Day) and she agreed.  The (male) volunteer said she winked as she agreed.

But we’ve found a significant number of Harris supporters who don’t want that to get out.

In every election cycle Hope Springs has run GOTV, we’ve used American flags in the more purplish areas (for example, in the Jacksonville mayor’s race in the Spring).  Voters in these mixed areas don’t mind have an American flag displayed at the end of their driveway and it helps runners find their houses at a time when volunteers are feeling a bit rushed.

Flags will be placed on Friday night.

But we do this because we are down to the wire and EVERY SECOND COUNTS now.

We are canvassing in pieces of turf that are more purplish that the turf taken over by the Harris or Coordinated Campaign and/or pieces that were ceded to Hope Springs because we had established a rapport there.  I know that one area in Pennsylvania was “given” to us because of the number of Constituent Service Requests we had collected in the area.

We still aren’t really seeing evidence of Trump-supportive canvassers out on the streets while volunteers are canvassing.  We’ve had a couple of areas where we have found a bunch of Trump-related lit, especially in Pennsylvania and Michigan.  

Hope Springs volunteers continue to canvass in 19 areas in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania & Texas.  

In Michigan and Pennsylvania each, we continue to knock on doors in 2 suburban areas.  In Florida, we retain our (mostly) Hispanic-language canvass of Osceola neighborhoods.  In North Carolina, we continue canvassing (and registering voters) in 2 primarily red counties, knocking on doors of African-Americans there.  In Ohio, the same (2 reddish counties where we were successful in 2023).  In Arizona, we are knocking on doors in 1 Tucson suburban area and we continue to knock on 4 pieces of turf in southern Georgia.  We have 5 canvasses going in Texas.

This is purely GOTV now with a little bit of supporter identification mixed in.

As you might expect, we are no longer walking with Constituent Request forms.

The areas we are knocking in are tougher areas for Democrats but the Hope Springs volunteers in these areas have built up not only good will but a determination to win.  They are, in a word, battle hardened.  The neighborhoods are familiar, voters recognize some of our volunteers and this familiarity seems to mean that voters are more likely to engage.  Remember 4 years of knocking on doors in these swingy Congressional Districts.  Numerous volunteers have now knocked on the same doors from earlier in the year.

Last Saturday, we had 1,441 Hope Springs from Field volunteers come out to canvass last Saturday.  1,314 volunteers came out on Sunday.  1,148 volunteers showed up on Monday evening; 1,160 knocked on doors on Tuesday and 1,048 came out on Wednesday evening (! — Wednesday evening has always been a church night in the South, so we would always have the least number of volunteers that night).   That’s 6,111 volunteer shifts since Saturday.  With more to come this week!  We aren’t done yet, we won’t go back.

As you can see the graphic above, the recent shifts are vastly outnumbered by what we did before Labor Day (when we were knocking on doors in 13 states).  Even our turf in the states we are still working has been reduced by the Harris or Coordinated Campaigns.  So here’s a close-up.

We knocked on 105,929 doors last Saturday.  We hit 96,507 doors on Sunday; 46,738 doors on Monday, 47,071 on Tuesday and 42,766 doors on Wednesday.  That’s 339,011 doors total for those five days.  At every door, we left a piece of campaign literature (sometimes several in states where there are senate candidates also on the ballot).  In the Spring and Summer, we left more than 10,207,329 pieces of literature praising our presidential candidates and Democratic policies, as well as Democratic Senate candidates, at voter’s doors.  The printing bills for that continue to come in and is the biggest reason why we continue to ask for your financial support.

Volunteers talked to 9,531 voters last Saturday in these 9 states.  We spoke to 8,646 voters on Sunday, 4,190 on Monday, 4,238 on Tuesday and 3,889 on Wednesday.  That’s 30,494 voters total for those five days.  Almost every one of those 30,494 voters heard the persuasion script.  Of those, 19,539 voters answered questions, specifically about who they planned to vote for and whether or not they had a plan to vote (and when).

We are collecting a lot more 1’s (strong Harris support) than we have before.

Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd to set up a favorable “battle space” or foundation for Democrats in 2024.  We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.  The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024

Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical.  Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.

Arizona

In Arizona, 103 volunteers came out in the heat to knock on doors in the eastern suburbs of Tucson last Saturday.  91 came out on Sunday, 67 on Monday, 59 on Tuesday and 62 on Wednesday — 382 for the 5 days. We knocked on 21,771 doors and talked to 1,956 voters.  1,262 of those voters answered our questions about their plans to vote.

The Economy was the Number 1 issue for the Arizonans we talked to on Saturday.  Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was second.

Between 63%-66% of the voters we talked to said they were likely to vote for Vice President Harris (volunteers scored as 1s or 2s) on Saturday.  Between 3-5% said they were undecided.  Between 4-7% were inclined towards TFG.  Between 87-89% of the voters we talked to expressed support for Ruben Gallego. Between 3-4% said they were undecided and Between 2-4% said they were inclined towards Kari Lake.  Remember that the voter model we were using here was decided at a higher level and that we are no longer targeting only Democratic and unaffiliated households. We were unable to canvass in the afternoons because of extreme heat.

Florida

The area we retained in Florida were primarily Spanish-speaking neighborhoods in Osceola County.  The overwhelming majority of these houses have voters with some link to Puerto Rico.  Needless to say, there’s been a significant uptick in interest here, both in volunteers and voters.  86 volunteers came out on Saturday.  77 came out on Sunday; but 112 came out to canvass on Monday, 137 on Tuesday, and 145 on Wednesday.  Might have been something said at the Nazi Rally in New York.  That’s 557 total for the 5 days.  We knocked on 28,193 doors those 5 days.  Volunteers talked to 2,567 (mostly) Hispanic voters in Osceola last week.  1,656 voters responded to questions about their plans on voting.

The Top Issue in Florida last Saturday was (Rising) Prices and/or Inflation.  Climate Change Issues was the second most frequently cited Issue.

Between 63%-68% of the voters we talked to said they were likely to vote for Vice President Harris, depending on the day.  5-7% said they were undecided.  2-7% were inclined to support TFG.  Between 80-84% said they were voting for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (she has Spanish language ads up here).  Between 5 to 7% were undecided; 5-7% backed Republican Rick Scott.

Georgia

276 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday in southern Georgia.  244 came out on Sunday, 196 volunteers showed up on Monday, 19 on Tuesday and 181 on Wednesday for 1,095 for the week.  We knocked on 62,123 doors for the 5 days in southern Georgia.  Volunteers talked to 5,609 voters total for the week.  3,589 of those voters told us about their plans to vote.  

The Economy was the Top Issue in Georgia on Saturday.  Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was second.  Concern about Political Violence was third.

Between 85%-89% of the voters we talked to said they were likely to vote for Vice President Harris, depending on the day.  Between 4-6% said they were undecided.  Between 2-4% were inclined to support TFG.

Michigan

99 volunteers came out to knock on doors last Saturday, 92 came out on Sunday, 65 on Monday, 71 knocked on Tuesday and 75 on Wednesday, for a grand total of 402 for the 5 days.  We knocked on 22,489 doors for the 5 days.  We talked to 2,032 voters total.  1,305 of those voters told us about their voting plans.

The Economy was the Top Issue in Michigan.  Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was second.

Between 85%-89% of the voters we talked to said they were likely to vote for Vice President Harris, depending on the day.  3-4% said they were undecided.  4% were inclined to support TFG.  88-91% said they were voting for Elissa Slotkin; 3-4% said they were undecided.  Mike Rogers got the support of 2-3% of the voters we talked to.

North Carolina

199 volunteers came out to knock on doors in North Carolina last Saturday.  204 came out on Sunday, 139 on Monday evening, 151 on Tuesday and 127 on Wednesday evening -- for 820 volunteers total.  We knocked on 46,587 doors total for the 5 days.  Volunteers talked to 4,159 voters total.  2,653 of those voters told us about their election plans.  

Disaster Recovery was the Number 1 Issue in North Carolina.  The Economy was second.

Between 64%-66% of the voters we talked to said they were likely to vote for Vice President Harris, depending on the day.  5-7% said they were undecided.  7-9% were inclined to support TFG.

Ohio

106 volunteers turned up on Saturday in Ohio on Saturday, 101 on Sunday, 94 on Monday, 98 on Tuesday and 89 on Wednesday for 488 total. They knocked on 26,309 doors for the 5 days.  Hope Springs volunteers talked to 2,360 voters for the 5 days.  1,510 voters told us about their plans to vote.

The Economy was the Number 1 issue for the Ohioans we talked to on Saturday.  Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was second.

Between 59%-64% of the voters we talked to said they were likely to vote for Vice President Harris, depending on the day.  Between 8% said they were undecided.  Between 7-10% were inclined to support TFG.  Between 87%-89% of the voters said they were voting for Sen. Brown; 3-4% were decided.  Between 2-3% said they said they were looking at Bernie Moreno.

Pennsylvania

301 volunteers showed up to knock on doors last Saturday, with another 291 on Sunday, 209 on Monday, 221 on Tuesday and 225 on Wednesday with 1,247 total.  Nothing like living in a Swing State where you know your vote really matters.  We knocked on 71,290 doors those 5 days.  Volunteers talked to 5,463 voters in all.  4,164 voters told us about their plans to vote.

The Economy was the Top Issue last Saturday in the state.  Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was second.  Political Shenanigans was the Third most cited Issue.

Between 84%-88% of the voters we talked to said they were likely to vote for Vice President Harris, depending on the day.  4-5% said they were undecided.  Between 3-4% were inclined to support TFG.  Between 89-90% of the voters said they were voting for Sen. Casey; 3-4% were decided.  2-3% said they said they were looking at Dave McCormick, who has really kicked in his advertising spending.

Texas

271 volunteers showed up to knock on doors last Saturday, with another 214 on Sunday, 266 on  Monday, 232 on Tuesday and 137 on Wednesday with 1,120 total.  We knocked on 60,249 doors in five days in Texas.  Volunteers talked to 5,348 voters for the week.  3,400 voters told us about their plans to vote.

(Rising) Prices and/or Inflation was the Top Issue last Saturday in the state.  Housing Availability, Costs and Housing Insurance Costs was second.  Border and/or Immigration was the Third most cited Issue.

Between 58%-61% of the voters we talked to said they were likely to vote for Vice President Harris, depending on the day.  Between 7-8% said they were undecided.  Between 7-11% were inclined to support TFG.  Between 75-77% of the voters said they were voting for Colin Allred; 4-5% were decided.  4-6% said they said they were looking at Ted Cruz.

If you support grassroots driven voter contact like this, we’d love to have your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024

All the data we collect is entered into VAN, the Democratic database.

Hope Springs from Field has a hybrid approach.  We aren’t interested in competing with regular campaign field organizing.  We are in the field before they get there and then move on when the Democratic campaigns start their own intensive field work.  Indeed, when we wind up the typical field work by Labor Day, we will encourage all the volunteers working with us to move over to the Senate campaigns in their states (and hope that our field organizers will be hired on by those campaigns).  After Labor Day, we will begin organizing our Election Protection Project.

We continue to remind voters to verify their registration and also ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections.  Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections.  Voters who say they have experience voter intimidation or other problems with voting are asked to fill out Incident Reports.  5 voters filled out Incident Reports on last Saturday.

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022).  There is a lot of work to be done!  Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.

This year, our biggest expense is Printing the Walk Lit that we leave at every door.  As you can imagine, having tripled the number of doors we’ve knocked this year, it’s quite an expense.  Access to the Voter File is our second largest cost.  But it is also a fixed cost.  That won’t change as we raise and spend more money.  Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.

If you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization2024

If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the ActBlue page.  Thank you for your support.  This work depends upon you!