The Republican Party doesn’t have a lot of opportunities to grow its electorate. Their older white base is dying off, suburbanites are fleeing to the Democratic Party, voters of color are heavily liberal, and young voters are solidly progressive … mostly.
Republicans’ sole growth opportunity is young men—the worst-performing voting demographic.
And so far, they’re not performing any better this year.
As of early Thursday morning, roughly 13.5 million have voted already in the battleground states, according to data firm TargetSmart, which works with Democratic candidates. Of those, the gender breakdown is 54% women and 44% men, with the rest unknown. That's a great sign for Democrats since women lean left.
Of that number, 8.9% of early voters in battlegrounds are 18- to 29-year-olds. It makes sense that younger voters are more likely to be underrepresented in the early vote since older, busier people and/or those with health issues will be more motivated to vote early or by mail. For context, in 2020, 18- to 29-year-olds were about 17% of the electorate, according to exit polls.
As Donald Trump speaks in the background, a group of young men leave a Sept. 29 campaign event in Erie, Pennsylvania.
Of those early-voting 18- to 29-year-olds, women were ahead 52-43, with the rest unknown.
But here is where it gets fun: More Democratic young men than Republican young men have voted—by a margin of 45-42. (Caveat: This is using modeled party identification, which does not mean these men are for sure members of the indicated party, but TargetSmart’s data is generally reliable.)
And the raw number of young Republican men who are voting early? Just 220,694 out of the total 13.5 million early battleground-state votes cast.
That’s 1.6% of the total.
A supporter of Donald Trump looks at his phone at a campaign event in Racine, Wisconsin, on June 18.
These are the weird, young, MAGA incel types whom Republicans expect will bail them out of their demographic cul-de-sac.
They better hope their numbers dramatically improve through Election Day because so far, they’re barely visible.
Let's get to work electing Kamala Harris our next president! Sign up for as many shifts as you can between now and Nov. 5 to talk with progressive voters in key states who might not turn out without hearing from you!
