Russian forces conducted limited drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of October 3 to 4.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 19 Shahed-136/131 drones from Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; Kursk Oblast; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[39] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down nine Shahed drones over Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Kherson oblasts and that likely Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference caused seven Shahed drones to miss their targets and become "lost" in Ukrainian airspace.
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The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down nine Shahed drones over Kyiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, and Kherson oblasts
Zelenskyy Victory Plan: 5 points
- Invitation to Ukraine to join NATO: Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff and effective national security adviser, told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York on Tuesday that one key element of the victory plan was a formal invitation to NATO membership for Ukraine. NATO allies have provided Ukraine with diplomatic and military support over the course of the war.
- Current status: Ukraine is currently a NATO partner country, not a member of the alliance. Already, NATO has dropped some of its traditional procedural steps that other applicants need to go through to secure membership. The alliance has made clear that Ukraine is on an “irreversible” path to membership. But alliance members are skeptical about granting NATO membership while the war with Russia is on, as that would immediately mean that the alliance as a whole would be at war with Moscow. That is why, at its Washington summit in July, NATO declared it would “be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the alliance when allies agree and conditions are met”. Simply put, NATO is not on board with this element of Zelenskyy’s victory plan.
- Long-range missiles to strike inside Russia: Ukraine has been demanding access to these missiles, to target sites deep within Russia, and has ramped up its pleas following its dramatic incursion into Russia’s Kursk region in August. Zelenskyy has said this demand is a part of the victory plan.
- Current status: NATO is divided on this demand. While some allies are backing Ukraine, the US and UK are still deliberating the idea and have not yet lifted restrictions on the use of these missiles within Russia. Experts have told Al Jazeera that this is because of the fear of escalation. Putin has warned that Ukraine’s use of these weapons inside Russia would mean, according to Moscow, that NATO is at war with Russia. Ukraine is already using long-range missiles to strike targets in Crimea and other occupied regions inside Ukraine.
- Sustained supply of advanced weapons: Since Russia’s full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Kyiv has relied heavily on weapons and military platforms provided by NATO allies. Yet often, Ukraine has had to plead for specific weapons systems for weeks, initially face rejections, and eventually succeed in convincing the US and others on supplies. This, Ukraine has said, reduces the effectiveness of its military counter to Russia, delays its war goals and leads to the loss of lives that could have been saved. According to Bloomberg, the victory plan includes a demand for a sustained supply chain of advanced weapons for Ukraine.
- Current status: NATO member nations, including the US, have responded to this criticism over the past two years by insisting that they have tried to expedite military supplies to Ukraine. However, they have so far insisted on treating each demand for weapons on its own merit, instead of committing to a flow of military platforms as and when Ukraine seeks them.
- Membership of the European Union (EU): A clear pathway to EU membership is also part of the victory plan, according to Bloomberg. In an interview with the New Yorker, Zelenskyy said Ukraine currently “stands excluded from the European Union and NATO”.
- Current status: Ukraine receives financial support from the EU but is not an official member. In February 2022, four days after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Kyiv applied to become an EU member. It needs to follow seven steps to qualify for membership. Since June 2022, Ukraine has been a candidate for EU membership. As part of the process, it must incorporate EU laws into its domestic legal framework. In June 2024, the EU agreed to start membership negotiations with Ukraine.
- Additional economic aid for Ukraine: Zelenskyy and his aides have stressed that the victory plan includes a request for economic support. The World Bank estimates that the country will need $480bn for reconstruction.
- Current status: Before Thursday’s meeting, Biden announced a surge in aid totaling nearly $8bn for Ukraine. According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy in Germany, which tracks global aid for Ukraine, Kyiv received 110 billion euros ($123bn) in assistance from Europe between February 2022 and the end of June 2024. It also received 75 billion euros ($84bn) from the US in this period. In addition, Europe had committed 77 billion euros ($86bn) and the US had promised 23 billion euros ($26bn).
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Ukrainian forces struck a fuel storage facility in Anna, Voronezh Oblast on the night of October 3 to 4. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) and Ukrainian military struck at least one vertical fuel reservoir at the Annaneftprodukt fuel and oil storage facility and that Ukrainian military officials are still clarifying the damage at the facility.[1] Voronezh Oblast Governor Alexander Gusev claimed that Russian electronic warfare (EW) interference caused a Ukrainian drone to fall onto the fuel storage facility and start a fire at an empty fuel reservoir.[2] Footage published on October 4 shows a fire at a purported fuel storage facility near Anna.[3]
Key Takeaways:
- Ukrainian forces struck a fuel storage facility in Anna, Voronezh Oblast on the night of October 3 to 4.
- Russian forces recently advanced in Vovchansk, near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
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Ukrainian forces continued ground assaults in Glushkovsky Raion west of the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on October 4 but did not make confirmed advances. Russian sources reported continued fighting near Veseloye (south of Glushkovo), and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian attacks towards Novy Put (south of Veseloye).[4] ...Elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade reportedly continue fighting in Glushkovsky Raion.[6]
Fighting continued in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on October 4, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. Russian sources, including the Russian MoD, claimed that fighting continued near Kremyanoye and Olgovka (both east of Korenevo), Lyubimovka (southeast of Korenevo), and Plekhovo (southeast of Sudzha).[7] Elements of the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet [BSF], Southern Military District [SMD]) reportedly continue operating in Kursk Oblast.[8]
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Aside from the alliteration of Blimp and Blotto, what is shared among these things is war and its stories.
