A Thought on Electoral College "Republican Bias"

Conventional wisdom says that the electoral college has a bias towards Republicans and if a Democratic candidate isn’t up by 4-6 points or more in the national polls, the Republican candidate is actually ahead. But that so-called bias may not be as significant this time around. Here are some numbers in the largest Democratic EV states. The 2024 numbers are the 538 averages:

California

2016: Clinton +30

2020: Biden +29

2024: Harris +25

New York

2016: Clinton +23

2020: Biden +23

2024: Harris +14

Biden won California by 5 million votes. Slice his margin to 25%, and he wins by less than 4 million. He won New York by 2 million votes. Slice his margin to 14 percent and his overall margin goes down by about 700,000 votes. There hasn’t been much polling in the other big blue states, but it wouldn’t be too surprising if similar attrition occurred there. Harris isn’t in danger of losing any of these states, but they figure heavily in national popular vote polls. 

The fact that Harris is up by 3% nationally right now despite the depressed numbers in her biggest states means that she’s doing better in other places. I’d rather have her win six or seven swing states by 1-2 points than California and New York by a meaningless extra ten points.