Tropical storm Milton just formed from the combination of an old frontal disturbance in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the remnants of a tropical storm in the Pacific that crossed over Mexico into the southwestern Gulf. Only a day or two ago, weather models forecast a weak system, but today everything changed as the disturbance got much better organized than expected. Now multiple hurricane models are forecasting a major hurricane off of the west coast of Florida and several are predicting it to behave much like hurricane Katrina did because of a hot loop current deep warm eddy a few hundred miles west of Florida’s west coast. The timing is not precise but impacts to the shoreline could begin as early as Tuesday and many models have landfall on Wednesday.
Milton's forecast track crosses a hot loop current eddy on it's approach to the west coast of Florida.
There are very large uncertainties in the intensity forecasts and the landfall location forecast but the potential impacts of the outcomes of the latest model runs are so severe that action should be taken very soon to evacuate low lying areas before the roads are so jammed that there are few options.
Similar to hurricane Katrina, Milton is forecast to become a major hurricane before it passes over a hot Loop Current eddy. Some models are intensifying it to category 5 over the eddy. As it passes over the eddy interactions with a strong cold front to the north and an intense jet stream are forecast to increase wind shear, weakening the storm before landfall as it crosses into cooler water.
However, the likely weakening of the winds before landfall will not help with the storm surge which will build as Milton crosses from deep water onto the shallow shelf waters. The possibly extreme heights of open ocean waves will first build, then interact as set waves to make minute or more long surges inland on top of the general storm surge.
Forecast wave heights for hurricane Milton as it approaches Florida's west coast GFS model
Models are predicting the transition from a tropical system to an extratropical system to be taking place as Milton crosses over Florida and this is not necessarily a good thing. A burst of strong winds called a sting jet can form as the back side of the storm as it interacts with dry air. These very strong winds can be highly destructive.
The official 5pm EDT National Hurricane Center forecast has a large cone of uncertainty for Milton’s landfall on the west coast of Florida with the center line of the cone crossing near Tampa Bay early Wednesday afternoon.
NHC’s official forecast cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Milton centers close to Tampa Bay.
To make the situation worse, the weather models are predicting large amounts of rain falling over western Florida before the storm makes landfall. The ground will be saturated and rivers will already be running high.
Make no mistake, the water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the main development region are at record highs, effectively tied with last year which had water temperatures elevated by El Nino’s weak trade winds. This situation is caused by greenhouse gases causing less heat to radiate to space and ninety percent of the added heat ending up in the oceans. Climate change is real and it is threatening our lives.
Gulf of Mexico temperatures were at record highs at the end of September before hurricane Helene put NOAA's data center in Asheville off-line
Please be prepared for the worst and be safe.
