Hurricane Milton intensified extremely rapidly in the early morning hours as its eyewall came together into a tight hollow column of rapidly rising air. As the models specifically designed for hurricane forecasting predicted the bottom dropped out of the surface pressure and the winds accelerated as Milton approached the continental shelf of the Yucatan peninsula. The National Hurricane center issued a special update at 8:05 CDT:
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL142024805 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024…
MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE…
Data from both Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Milton has strengthened to a category 4 hurricane. The maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 150 mph (240 km/h). Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to 940 mb (27.76 inches).
Hurricane Milton was at the top of category 4, sustained winds of 155mph, at 10 AM CDT and continuing to intensify. Hurricane Milton is in the top 5 Atlantic storms for rapid intensification.
The pressure drop observed by the hurricane hunter plane late morning today is incredible.
The Airforce hurricane hunter plane observed an historic 35mb pressure drop during its mission late morning October 7, 2024.
The Hurricane center’s 11am discussion is noteworthy and possibly historic.
Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 10NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
AL1420241000 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024
Milton's remarkable rapid intensification is continuing. Satellite images show a small eye within the very cold central cloud cover,and the eye is becoming better defined. Data from the Mexican radar at Sabancuy show a small, closed eye with an intense eyewall presentation. The Hurricane Hunter aircraft earlier reported a peak flight-level wind of 146 kt, and dropsonde data show that the pressure has fallen to around 933 mb, which is down about 22 mb in 4 hours. The initial wind speed is set to 135 kt, which is an 80-kt increase in 24 hours (only eclipsed by Wilma 2005 and Felix 2007 in our records).
The hurricane is still moving east-southeastward, now about 8 kt.Global models continue to insist that Milton will turn eastward soon as the frontal low pressure area over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico departs. The new forecast near Mexico is about the same as the previous one, but is close enough to bring hurricane-force winds to the northern portion of Yucatan Peninsula. Later, a new mid-level trough dropping into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should then cause Milton to move east-northeastward to northeastward at a faster forward speed. The latest model fields are a bit left of the previous runs, and the official NHC track forecast is shifted to the north. This forecast is close to a consensus of the latest GFS, ECMWF and regional hurricane models. Note that this track is closer to the model fields rather than the model trackers which appear to be too far south. Milton is likely to become a category 5 hurricane later today with light shear and very warm waters in its path. By tomorrow,its intensity should be dictated by any eyewall replacement cycles, which will likely cause the system to gradually weaken but grow larger. After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore, some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with life-threatening hazards at the coastline and well inland. After landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition, which should be complete by 96 h.
Noon EDT Update: Milton has intensified to category 5.
Milton has intensified to category 5.
In midsummer a track near or over the Yucatan continental shelf would likely induce weakening because trade winds cause cool water to well up on the shelf margin. However, the trade winds tend to weaken in September. Water temperatures are about 85ºF (or just under 30 Celsius) on and near the shelf. Therefore, the newest hurricane models continue to predict intensification to a strong category 5 storm.
None of the hurricane or global forecast models predicted that Milton would intensify as rapidly as it has as early as it has. The strong category 5 peak storm intensity forecast by the hurricane models is realistic given the extremely rapid intensification that has taken place over the past 12 hours.
Update 4pm CDT — The 155kt 180mph intensity forecast came early. Milton now has 180mph sustained winds and a pressure of 905mb.
The HAFS-B model’s 48 hour forecast is that Milton will have 155 knot winds — about 180mph — and a central pressure of 902mb. This would make Milton a strong category 5 hurricane.
Models continue to predict some weakening as Milton approaches Florida’s central Gulf coast, but that weakening would involve an expansion of Milton’s wind field which would develop a wider fetch to drive the storm surge from the deep Gulf onto the shallow Florida continental shelf. The angle of approach of the forecast storm track would develop a wedge of water driven by the strong southerly winds on the southeastern side of Milton onto the shelf which would be be trapped by the north-northwest facing shoreline. This wedge of trapped water would push up into any embayments along the coastline. If the storm track is near or north of Tampa Bay, millions of people would be affected by the surging waters.
An outstanding detailed article on the potential impact of a major hurricane on the Tampa bay region was published in 2017 in the Washington Post. Tampa Bay's Coming Storm
Urban development has been allowed in low lying areas despite the potential hazard of deadly storm surges. Because about four million people live in the area around Tampa Bay, only local evacuation to high ground is possible. And critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, has been built in low lying areas. The zoning decisions were (and continue to be) political.
A Boston firm that analyzes potential catastrophic damage reported that the region would lose $175 billion in a storm the size of Hurricane Katrina. A World Bank study called Tampa Bay one of the 10 most at-risk areas on the globe.
Yet the bay area — greater Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater — has barely begun to assess the rate of sea-level rise and address its effects. Its slow response to a major threat is a case study in how American cities reluctantly prepare for the worst, even though signs of impacts from climate change abound all around.
State leaders could be part of the reason. Republican Gov. Rick Scott’s administration has reportedly discouraged employees from using the words “climate change” in official communications. Last month, the Republican-controlled state legislature approved bills allowing any citizen to challenge textbooks and instructional materials, including those that teach the science of evolution and global warming.
In the brief time I have taken to write this, the eye has cleared out and the winds have spun up. Compact storms, such as Milton is now, can intensify very quickly, but Milton has exceeded all expectations. Millions of people need to find the safest ground they can and it needs to be close by. The infrastructure in not capable of evacuating millions of people in two days.
Hurricane Milton's eye has cleared and category 4 Milton continues to intensify
Just before landfall Milton is likely to weaken, but get larger, and begin its transition from a tropical to an extratropical storm. The latest HAFS-A model run illustrates the worst case scenario for Tampa Bay and is consistent with the latest NHC track forecast.
The HAFS-A model illustrates the worst case landfall scenario for hurricane Milton on Tampa Bay.
