Kevin Lincoln is a feel-good story. He shocked the political world in 2020 by easily dispatching a rising star in the race for mayor of Stockton. The 9th district has a pronounced voter registration advantage in favor of the Democratic Party, but that didn’t seem to hurt Lincoln. He definitely has some crossover appeal, and stories like this help his case.
When I was 15 years old … as I’m coming out of [a] store, a gentleman says, “Hey, young man, you have a dollar?” I looked at him, and I realized who that gentleman was. It was my father, whom I hadn’t seen for a few years. I had to tell my father, “No.”
He says that was one of the moments that changed his life. Shortly thereafter, he ended up getting on the right path. He’s been clean and sober for almost 30 years.
That’s a moment that changed my life. People do need help, and we need to do everything we can to help them. But sometimes there has to be some enforcement to help that person take that next step toward healing in their life.
Rep. Josh Harder hasn’t faced a tough election since his initial one in 2018. Kevin Lincoln is the biggest threat to his tenure in Washington, DC yet. I’m not sure that national Democrats are taking the race seriously enough.
The question for Rep. Josh Harder is whether or not he is ready to fight for a district he cruised in two years ago.
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Josh Harder for California-9
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS HOUSE RACE IS RATED AS LIKELY DEMOCRATIC, with a D+5 PVI
California has renumbered the districts and has drawn the lines differently so many times that it is hard to keep track of individual districts. Instead, I will focus on the history of the area in question — the Stockton metro area. This will hopefully keep the narrative consistent and prevent confusion as the redistricting commission tends to renumber things every decade.
Much of the territory found in the current 9th district was also found in the previous 11th district created in the 2000 round of redistricting. That decade featured an incumbent protection map, and Rep. Richard Pombo was protected all the way until the 2006 election. That was a bridge too far for Pombo, as Rep. Jerry McNerney used a minor scandal to knock off the incumbent.
McNerney has been representing this area of California ever since, through tough races (2010 and 2014), relative blowouts (2018), and everything in between. The district shifted to cover more of the Stockton area and was renumbered the 9th district after 2010 redistricting. Trump got under 40% of the vote in both 2016 and 2020, showing how safe the district was.
The 2020 round of redistricting added red turf, making it a less secure district than before. Biden won the new 9th district by a 55.2% to 42.6% margin. The former incumbent, Rep. Jerry McNerney, decided to retire in 2022. Rep. Josh Harder of the neighboring 10th district jumped ship to this district as his home was drawn into this district. California Democrats struggled in 2022 but Harder still won comfortably despite never representing most of the district before. Harder won 54.8% to 45.2% in a low-turnout election. Only 174k voters decided this election in 2022, while 302k voted in 2020 in roughly the same district.
California uses a Top 2 primary system, and the 2024 primary pushed Democratic incumbent Josh Harder and Republican mayor of Stockton Kevin Lincoln to the general election. Harder was held under 50% of the total vote and the combination of Republican candidates garnered the majority of the votes in the primary. The caveat is that it was an extremely low turnout election as only 123k people voted. This is probably why the GOP is pouring money into the race when the fundamentals suggest Harder should win comfortably yet again.
Here’s where this 9th district race will be won.
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Stockton Metro Area: This is the Democratic anchor of the district, but it isn’t immune to electing members of the GOP as mayor as the high-profile 2020 election shows. Harder will have to remind voters of how badly they have it under Lincoln to avoid the upset.
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Tracy: This is the home base of Rep. Josh Harder. He will have to make sure this city turns out at full capacity because the Central Valley is known for low participation in elections.
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Manteca: This city is a swing city, and it narrowly voted for Joe Biden in 2020. To ensure that he is elected to this district, Harder will have to heavily court the voters found in this city and attempt to maintain the Biden margins. He does have some wiggle room here.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
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Lodi: This is the largest GOP-supporting city in the district, and even here there are some blue precincts. There are plenty more red ones, however. He will have to ensure that the loyal voters to our cause in this city aren’t ignored. He better not count on this city for his winning margin though.
- Eastern San Joaquin County: This part of the county is much more rural, and thus is anathema to the ideals of the Democratic Party at this time. Harder isn’t going to find very many votes out here because most of the agricultural workers are immigrants* and the landowners mostly vote Republican.
Rep. Josh Harder: The Delta Defender
Rep. Josh Harder was viewed as an interloper his first run. He’s now settled in the 9th district.
Rep. Josh Harder was born in Turlock, California in 1986. He earned bachelor’s degrees in political science and economics from Stanford University. He also matriculated from Harvard University with an MBA and a master’s in public policy.
Harder was hired by Bessemer Venture Partners for its New York office. Harder would eventually become a vice president in the company and move back to San Francisco. In 2018, he moved again to Turlock in order to run for Congress in California’s 10th district. To make ends meet, he was a business professor at Modesto Junior College.
Harder of course won the 10th district by a five-point margin during the blue-wave election. His re-election in 2020 was seen as a potentially competitive race. Harder did substantially better in his second election, winning by a ten-point margin.
The main issue for Rep. Josh Harder is water rights. He has been vociferously against the Delta Tunnel project and other means of shipping water away from his district. He claims that these projects would irreparably harm the agriculture and fishing industries found in his district. He’s even stood against fellow Democrats who have championed this project.
Another key issue that Harder is running on is abortion rights. He doesn’t actually mention the issue on either his campaign or official website, which is strange. He has a 100% rating from abortion rights groups and mourned the loss of rights created by the Dobbs ruling. He will hold the line on abortion rights, as well as birth control and IVF.
Public safety and homelessness are touchy issues right now in California and Harder has waded right into the thick of them. For policing, he authored a bill to create a grant for smaller police forces to recruit and retain officers. He also would tackle homelessness through mental health and substance abuse services combined with job training. With the Supreme Court recently ruling that homeless encampments can be cleared, Harder seeks a middle ground.
Harder is a member of the New Democratic Coalition and the Problem Solvers Caucus. That would typically indicate a moderate on the issues and one of the more moderate Democrats in the House. Actually, Harder is a loyal voter for Democratic priorities - much more so than what the lean of his district would indicate. He voted 100% of the time with Joe Biden’s stated position in the 117th Congress.
Rep. Josh Harder may not stand out in the Democratic caucus but he is one of the staunchest defenders of his district. He will protect the interests of his district even against fellow Democrats if necessary.
Kevin Lincoln: The Wrong-Way Mayor
It was a huge upset for Kevin Lincoln to win the Stockton mayoral race. His tenure hasn’t gone well.
Kevin Lincoln II was born in Stockton, California in 1980. He is Afro-Latino with a Mexican mother and a Black father. In 2001, he joined the US Marine Corps. He excelled and was chosen to serve on Marine One, the presidential helicopter, during the GW Bush term. He returned to Silicon Valley and worked for various firms from 2008 to 2013. Lincoln then worked as Executive Administrative Pastor for LifeSong Church in Stockton.
Lincoln ran in the officially nonpartisan race for the mayor of Stockton in 2020 against incumbent Michael Tubbs. Tubbs aligned himself with the Democratic Party while Lincoln let it be known his party preference is Republican. A political blog called The 209 Times was influential in the race. This blog ran fake stories about the corruption in Stockton’s mayoral office. Kevin Lincoln wasn’t involved in this effort, but he certainly benefited from it. It is a template from which fake news in an election can go mainstream.
Lincoln’s tenure as mayor of Stockton has been just as rough as his predecessor’s. Crime, homelessness, and the cost of living keep going up in the city though to be fair he can only influence the first two. But what is inexcusable is Lincoln’s penchant for lavish projects that the city doesn’t need right now. We’re talking about an $80M renovation of city hall including his own office. Also, he’s spending $3M on upgrades at a sports arena. That money could’ve been used to fund more law enforcement.
Lincoln doesn’t opine much on national hot-button issues. His campaign website is full of typical GOP fear-mongering about the border, inflation, and “defunding the police”. Not mentioned anywhere is the issue of abortion rights. That’s because he’s anti-abortion and even celebrated the demise of Roe v. Wade. He will continue to duck this issue and other issues that aren’t as favorable to him.
Kevin Lincoln is counting on running with not much of a record and for another upset similar to the one that catapulted him to mayor. California’s 9th district needs to see through this charade and reject the wrong-way mayor.
How Can You Help?
We’re still awaiting fresh numbers for Q3 in most races. Rep. Josh Harder has great fundraising connections from his days as a San Francisco venture capitalist. He had $3.3M cash-on-hand as of the end of June, while Kevin Lincoln only had $620k.
I am surprised that there are any independent expenditures in this race and it is the reason why I chose to write about it. As of the first week of October, the NRCC has spent close to $900k on this race with no response from the DCCC and its allies. I suspect they are relying on Harder to defend himself due to his massive war chest.
The Central Valley usually has low turnout when compared to other parts of California. Whatever the reasons, there is a history of low voter engagement in this district - even in Presidential years. That means that volunteers are critical for getting voters to mail in their ballots on time.
Canvassing is super important in this district, and Harder has quite a few operations going right now. Lodi, Stockton, Tracy, and Manteca are cities that have canvassing going on at different times. Harder even has virtual phone banking sessions scheduled until the election. Let’s not take any chances with this district and do something to win it!
Rep. Josh Harder wasn’t one of the incumbents I was considering writing about until the NRCC decided to spend money here. Obviously, they must know something we don’t because they don’t waste money on vanity ads. To target the 54th most vulnerable Democratic seat must mean they’re seeing a chance to win.
Kevin Lincoln should not be counted out in this district. He won in an upset four years ago in part due to some shady electioneering on his behalf as well as the incumbent mayor being too progressive. I wouldn’t put it past his allies to attempt it on Harder as well. A lack of a record on national issues helps disguise his poor track record as mayor.
The question for Rep. Josh Harder is whether or not he is ready for a fight to hold this district after cruising two years ago.
Josh Harder for California-9
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