Category 4 Hurricane Milton is beginning to be impacted by strong westerly wind shear and the central pressure has risen. Wind speeds have dropped to 155mph, the top of category 4.
1pm edt update — the winds are down to 145mph.
3pm edt update — Tornado warnings are out across central Florida
As of 3pm 10 tornado reports have been made for Florida today. Although some reports may be multiples, typically many reports are received later. Conditions across much of Florida are very conducive to tornadoes this afternoon. It’s a very dangerous day to be out well ahead of Milton’s landfall.
Hurricane Milton's approach brings tornadoes to Florida
— end 3pm update.
The hurricane has a shear resistant annular shape so weakening may be a little slower than previously anticipated. However, as the central pressure weakens, the wind field broadens, so the wind fetch that drives the storm surge towards the Florida continental shelf will expand. A very large storm surge can be expected no matter what the wind speed and central pressure of Milton is at landfall. Wave heights and potential storm surge have been building since Milton began its turn northeast just north eastern tip of the Yucatan peninsula as a category 5 hurricane. A maximum surge of 15 feet is still anticipated in the region from just south of Tampa Bay south to Fort Meyers. Obviously, the details may vary when the surge arrives. Despite the likely landfall of Milton around Sarasota, south of Tampa bay the peak surge for Tampa bay is still calculated to be 8 to 12 feet.
Peak storm surge forecast for hurricane Milton by the National Hurricane Center
Making matters worse is that high tide is around midnight at the time that Milton will be making landfall. Moreover, despite winds now blowing offshore water levels are half a foot above predicted. These higher than predicted water levels are caused by ocean heating and the impacts of climate change on ocean currents. The Gulf coast has rapidly rising sea levels because of climate change.
Hurricane Milton will come ashore around midnight near high tide. Water levels are already half a foot above normal because of climate change.
The HAFS-B hurricane model shows Milton staying strong until just before landfall. The surge will likely not be significantly affected by Milton weakening as it makes landfall. The surge and the wave heights will be extreme.
Hurricane Milton will still be very strongas it approaches the Sarasota Florida area.
