When you are running in a coin-flip state such as Wisconsin, you need a secret weapon. Could the secret weapon for Sen. Tammy Baldwin be her connection with rural voters?
Sen. Tammy Baldwin has for years now done what for other Democrats has felt impossible: She has consistently won over enough rural voters to keep her swing-state seat secure.
Two years after Hillary Clinton lost Wisconsin, and two years before Joe Biden barely won it, Baldwin won by almost 11 points. And her reelection chances this year are generally considered solid, with uncertain Republican opposition, even in a year that’s expected to be difficult for Senate Democrats.
Even Baldwin’s Republican colleagues say she’s doing something unique: winning over rural voters with bread-and-butter, old-school politicking, tightly focused on local issues with little regard for the drama of national politics.
Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, who represents the most rural Wisconsin congressional district, said Baldwin’s “good constituent services” are part of why some voters in his district are more inclined to her.
Mark Graul, a GOP strategist who ran George W. Bush’s 2004 reelection campaign in Wisconsin, agreed. “What she does a really good job of is finding out, ‘Hey, is there some sort of issue you’re having with the federal government that I can try to help with?’”
That work has included extensive efforts with the dairy industry and “Made in America” (made in Wisconsin, in particular) — issues typically seen as more Republican concerns, though generally not met with abject horror by other Democrats. That means the issues wind up tallying up bipartisan support too.
The polls show a very tight race with her barely up in each poll. It will be a coin-flip to retain this critical Senate seat. The question for Sen. Tammy Baldwin is whether that flip of the coin will land in her favor.
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Tammy Baldwin for WI-SEN
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS SENATE RACE IS A TOSSUP, with an R+2 PVI
2022 WI-SEN map by county. Narrow loss.
Wisconsin is a deeply divided swing state, with the parties very polarized. Sometimes, Wisconsin can elect very progressive people into office, as evidenced by Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Sen. Russ Feingold. However, this is also the state that has brought you extremist conservatives such as Sen. McCarthy and of course Sen. Ron Johnson. Other than the Obama era, many of the elections in this state are razor thin and close.
This Senate seat has been in Democratic hands for a very long time. Sen. Herb Kohl held the seat from the 1988 election until he chose to retire in 2012. Tammy Baldwin was the presumptive nominee for this seat in that election and faced off against former Gov. Tommy Thompson. Baldwin was widely seen as too liberal for the state but she still won with 51.4% of the vote. 2018 was a blowout with 55.4% of the vote.
Probably the most instructive maps for the coalition Baldwin has to assemble are the 2020 Presidential map (Biden won 49.4% to 48.8% or 20,000 votes) and the 2022 Senate map. Sen Ron Johnson won by a 50.4% to 49.4% margin over Lt. Gov Mandela Barnes. Barnes could not assemble enough of the coalition to win the state and was seen as too liberal much like Baldwin is. That will be her challenge for this election.
This state is actually very simple to handicap. It is all about maximum turnout in Madison and Milwaukee, contesting a few swing regions, and then keeping the margins as close as possible in the rest of the state. Joe Biden shows a narrow path to victory using the 2020 map, and Gov. Evers in Wisconsin shows a similar path to victory in the 2018 map. Baldwin will have to replicate it to win.
Here’s where this Wisconsin race will be won.
- Madison Metro Area: This is one of the Democratic anchors of the state, and it has been growing like mad. Baldwin needs to find every single voter in this college county and convince them to turnout. Madison gives about 70-75% of the vote to Democratic candidates, and it is a rich source of votes. Low turnout would spell doom, needless to say.
- Milwaukee County: This county is the other anchor of the state, and it gives a gargantuan portion of votes at about a 65-70% clip to Democratic candidates. It is critical that this county does not lag in turnout, as it sometimes does. Just like in 2020, everything hinges on this county.
- Driftless Area: The southwestern and western portions of the state of Wisconsin are the swingiest portions of the state — with rural areas combined with college towns such as La Crosse and Eau Claire. The area supported Evers for governor in 2018, but it also supported Trump in both 2016 and 2020. Baldwin will have to fiercely contest this area in order to win.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- “Circle of Ignorance”: The three counties surrounding Milwaukee are critical to the success of Baldwin. She is *not* going to win any of these counties, but the margins she gets out of them could determine whether she wins or loses. Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington counties have been trending our way, and Biden hit the magic number in 2020 for success here.
- Fox Valley: This part of the state has swung against Democratic candidates in recent times, after showing strong support for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Again, it is about hitting the right margins and limiting the losses for Baldwin, as it is highly unlikely she will win this area.
- Racine and Kenosha: Made famous by
murderer Kyle Rittenhouse, the southeastern corner of the state is the last swing area that I need to highlight. Once again, Baldwin is looking for the correct margins. The cities are very Democratic friendly, but the turf surrounding them is equally friendly to conservatives. It is a good night if she can push the margins to 50-50 here.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin: She Needs our HELP
Sen. Tammy Baldwin is one of the most progressive Senators. She needs more help to keep her seat.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin was born in Madison, Wisconsin in 1962 to a teenaged mother going through a nasty divorce. She was subsequently raised by her grandparents as her mother succumbed to mental illness and opioid addiction. She graduated valedictorian of her high school class and went to Smith College for her undergraduate degree. She also received a JD from the University of Wisconsin. She opened a private law practice from 1989 to 1992.
Baldwin was first elected to a local office in 1986, and first ran for the state House in 1992. By this time it was known that she was openly lesbian and it was feared that it would sink her candidacy even in Dane County. The fears were unfounded as she won the primary with 43% of the vote and the general election with 59% of the vote. Baldwin was never seriously challenged for her seat again.
Baldwin leveled up to the House of Representatives in 1998 when she became the first LGBTQ+ non-incumbent to win an election to that body. She was also the first woman to be elected to Congress from the state of Wisconsin. She heavily targeted the University of Wisconsin campus and youth voters to win 53% of the vote in this Madison-based district that was just starting to realign to the Democratic Party. Her re-election in 2000 was the closest race of her career as she was held under 51% of the vote.
Baldwin is a proud progressive as much as the other Senator, Ron Johnson, is reactionary. They have the widest split amongst Senators from the same state in votes. She claims her role model is Sen. Bob La Follette of Wisconsin, a notable progressive from the Republican Party of a century ago. A brief overview of the race and her stances on the issues can be heard in this podcast with Molly Jong-Fast.
She checks all of the Midwestern boxes when it comes to progressivism. She is for universal healthcare, very strong gun safety measures, more public-private partnerships to build housing, comprehensive immigration reform, and against bad trade deals that hollow out the Rust Belt. Baldwin shines on LGBTQ+ rights and abortion rights as well!
If you are serious about moving the Democratic Party to the left, then you should be all-in on re-electing Sen. Tammy Baldwin. If she loses, not only will we lose a proud progressive but the Democratic Party will move rightwards once again to try and win Senate seats such as this one back.
Eric Hovde: An Insult to Dumpster Fires
There is a LONG opposition file on Eric Hovde. He’s counting on flooding the zone with scandal to win.
Eric Hovde was born in Madison, Wisconsin. He attended the University of Wisconsin and upon graduation he started his own business. He has been running businesses and hedge funds ever since, including the Hovde Foundation — a charitable organization that he runs along with his brother. He currently lives in Laguna Beach, California but of course lists an address in Madison, Wisconsin as his “primary” one. He hasn’t been seen much in the state since an attempt to win this Senate seat in 2012.
Hovde is trying to sell a rags-to-riches sob story, but the truth is that he grew up with connections and benefitted from his father being in the Reagan administration.
Donald Hovde served as undersecretary of Housing and Urban Development under President Ronald Reagan, and in 1983, Reagan nominated him to serve as a member of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board. The board, which existed from 1932 to 1989, governed federal banks that provide liquidity to other financial institutions. Reporting in a 1986 edition of the Asheville Citizen-Times described Donald Hovde as having a “position of considerable power.”
By 1988, Donald Hovde began using his Washington connections. He hired former regulators from the Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corp. to work at Hovde Financial, according to a report in American Banker magazine.
Eric Hovde referred to his father’s position of power in a March 2024 interview that aired on the radio station WCLO.
“Moved out to Washington, D.C., for a bit because my father was in the Reagan administration, highest ranking official in the Reagan administration,” Hovde told the host.
Hovde Financial was a success and eventually led to Eric Hovde acquiring a stake in Sunwest Bank, where he became CEO and majority shareholder by 2006.
Hovde has a history of controversial business decisions and statements and he is an opposition gold mine. Let’s start with the business record. His bank is associated with plenty of different criminal banks around the world. There’s the Azerbaijani bank that bribed Rep. Henry Cuellar. There’s the fact that his bank flew $26M across the Mexican border to the favorite bank of the Mexican drug cartels. His bank is party to a lawsuit claiming that the senior care facilities they own have rampant elder abuse. He personally invested in US insurance companies that dodge taxes by headquartering in Bermuda. These associations show just what kind of businessman Hovde truly is.
Hovde really doesn’t like people. He claims the retirement age for young people should be lifted much higher because technology is about to allow people to live to 120 years old. He also dropped this gem about the ACA and the fact that young people can stay on their parents’ insurance until age 26.
If attacking young people wasn’t enough, Hovde also shows disdain for the elderly as well. He says that people in nursing homes should not be able to vote.
He’s also mocked single mothers, obese people, Jewish people, indigenous people, and transgender youth. He is a nasty human being all around and I’m sure there are more pieces of audio somewhere waiting to be unearthed.
When it comes to the issues, Hovde is your typical MAGA Republican. He doesn’t have much of an issues page and is trying to obfuscate his issue positions. Yet at a recent debate he did let one gem slip. Hovde stated that he knew nothing about the critical Farm Bill that rural Wisconsin relies on. Baldwin immediately pounced on this lack of knowledge and showed that it reinforced his patrician upbringing and California residency. But he found time to come out against the sale of alcohol in Wisconsin!
Calling Eric Hovde a dumpster fire is an insult to dumpster fires. Yet this race will be extremely close thanks to the nature of the Wisconsin electorate. He’s the doppelganger of Sen. Ron Johnson who has been elected three times so he cannot be counted out yet.
How Can You Help?
The money race is all but concluded so I won’t bother you with donations. I will state that Sen. Tammy Baldwin has raised a grand total of $51.4M and Eric Hovde has self-funded and raised a grand total of $29M. Advantage Baldwin! Hovde is one of the wealthiest people ever to run for the Senate so he can cut himself more checks if he really wanted to. He may not have to because outside ad groups are swarming this race from both sides of the aisle.
If you still feel the need to donate today, make it to the awesome Wisconsin Democratic Party. Ben Wikler is one of the best party chairs in America and is responsible for all of the success we’ve had in this swing state (his only miss was WI-SEN in 2022). If we win Wisconsin again this year, he will be a major reason why it happens!
There are so many opportunities in Wisconsin right now to help out with voting that I am going to link to the Mobilize page and let people find an event that works for them! There’s giving rides to the polling locations, last minute canvassing, GOTV drives, and of course many political headliner events including Bill Clinton, Tim Walz, and even MVP Harris! Be there or be square!
Sen. Tammy Baldwin is definitely on the progressive end of the Democratic Party. If people are serious about moving our party to the left we need to prove that progressives can win in swing states even in tough environments such as this year. This will be the toughest race of her career thanks to the power of Donald Trump. Hopefully she is ready for the challenge and can win!
Eric Hovde would be a dumpster fire level candidate in any race but because Wisconsin is schizoid politically he still has a good chance of winning. I think this is the race that is 4th most vulnerable to flipping parties right now. Wisconsin was the closest swing state in the Blue Wall and it makes sense that this will be the closest race for the Senate outside of Montana and Ohio.
It will be a coin-flip to determine which party will win this race. The question for Sen. Tammy Baldwin is whether she can call it in the air and win the coin toss and thus the election for Wisconsin.
Tammy Baldwin for WI-SEN
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