Based on the latest publicly available, high quality, state-level exit poll data of early voters, combined with TargetSmart modeling of individual voters’ party affiliation, the likely range of GOP Early Voter Defection Rates in the battlegrounds, sorted in descending order, are:
- Michigan: 25%-29%
- Arizona: 13%-22%
- Georgia: 15%-18%
- North Carolina: 7%-19%
- Pennsylvania: 6%-10% [updated 6%-12%]
- Wisconsin: 5%-11% [updated 5%-15%]
Background and Method
Breakouts of the range of likely scenarios for each state follow. See my previous posts (10/31 overall; 10/30 WI, 10/30 PA, 10/30 MI) about the method and calculations, including an Excel screenshot for those who would like to reproduce the findings.
In the tables that follow, the left column contains a range of plausible scenarios for the percentage of Independent/Unaffiliated voters going for Harris, and what the corresponding rate of GOP defections would be for each scenario.
All scenarios assume a cautious rate of 94% of Democrats voting for Harris, and 6% of Democrats voting for third parties or Trump.
1. Michigan (25%-29% GOP EV Defection Rate)
- Actual early voters: 63% Harris, 33% Trump, 4% others (source: Marist, sampled Oct 27-30)
- Early voter party ID: Dem 47%, GOP 42%, Ind 11% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 2.6M voted)
- State data for overall party registration: n/a
Table: GOP Defection Rates in Michigan's Early Vote
|
Ind -> Harris
|
GOP -> Harris
|
|
80%
|
23.9%
|
|
75%
|
25.2%
|
|
70%
|
26.5%
|
|
65%
|
27.8%
|
|
60%
|
29.1%
|
2. Arizona (13%-22% GOP EV Defection Rate)
- Actual early voters: 56% Harris, 44% Trump, 0% others (source: Marist, sampled Oct 17-22)
- Early voter party ID: Dem 34%, GOP 41%, Ind 25% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 1.92M voted)
- State data for overall party registration: Dem 29%, GOP 35%, Ind 36% (source: IVP)
Table: GOP Defection Rates in Arizona’s Early Vote
|
Ind -> Harris
|
GOP -> Harris
|
|
80%
|
9.9%
|
|
75%
|
12.9%
|
|
70%
|
16.0%
|
|
65%
|
19.0%
|
|
60%
|
22.0%
|
3. Georgia (15%-18% GOP EV Defection Rate)
- Actual early voters: 55% Harris, 45% Trump, 0% others (source: Marist, sampled Oct 17-22)
- Early voter party ID: Dem: 45%, GOP 48%, Ind 7% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 3.7M voted)
- State data for overall party registration: n/a
Table: GOP Defection Rates in Georgia's Early Vote
|
Ind -> Harris
|
GOP -> Harris
|
|
80%
|
14.8%
|
|
75%
|
15.5%
|
|
70%
|
16.3%
|
|
65%
|
17.0%
|
|
60%
|
17.7%
|
4. North Carolina (7%-19% GOP EV Defection Rate)
- Actual early voters: 55% Harris, 43% Trump, 3% others (source: Marist, sampled Oct 17-22)
- Early voter party ID: Dem 33%, GOP 34%, Ind 33% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 3.6M voted)
- State data for overall party registration: Dem 31%, GOP 30%, Ind 39% (source: NC reg stats)
Table: GOP Defection Rates in North Carolina’s Early Vote
|
Ind -> Harris
|
GOP -> Harris
|
|
65%
|
7.4%
|
|
62%
|
10.4%
|
|
59%
|
13.3%
|
|
56%
|
16.2%
|
|
53%
|
19.1%
|
5. Pennsylvania (6%-10% GOP EV Defection Rate)
- Actual early voters: 63% Harris, 35% Trump, 2% others (source: Marist, sampled Oct 27-30)
- Early voter party ID: Dem 58%, GOP 32%, Ind 10% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 1.6M voted)
- State data for overall party registration: Dem 40%, GOP 37%, Ind 22%
Table: GOP Defection Rates in Pennsylvania’s Early Vote
|
Ind -> Harris
|
GOP -> Harris
|
|
65%
|
6.2%
|
|
62%
|
7.1%
|
|
59%
|
8.1%
|
|
56%
|
9.0%
|
|
53%
|
9.9%
|
6. Wisconsin (5%-11% GOP EV Defection Rate)
- Actual early voters: 57% Harris, 43% Trump, 2% others (source: Marist, sampled Oct 27-30)
- Early voter party ID: Dem 35%, GOP 24%, Ind 41% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 1.2M voted)
- State data for overall party registration: n/a
Table: GOP Defection Rates in Wisconsin's Early Vote
|
Ind -> Harris
|
GOP -> Harris
|
|
56%
|
4.8%
|
|
55%
|
6.5%
|
|
54%
|
8.2%
|
|
53%
|
9.9%
|
|
52%
|
11.6%
|
A Note on Nevada
While we do not have publicly available, recent state-level polling for Nevada, it is increasingly likely that an unusually high number of GOP defections are happening there, contrary to the model assumptions used by Jon Ralston. Given that NV had the highest number of Haley voters in the primary—even when the alternative was “none”—GOP defections there are likely in the upper range (15%-30%) of what we are seeing in other battlegrounds. Just look at how well the Haley voters in the GOP primaries correlate with the ranked list of early voters.
List: Haley Voters in GOP Primary
- Nevada: 30.6%
- Michigan: 26.6%
- Arizona: 17.8%
- Pennsylvania: 16.5%
- Florida: 13.9%
- Georgia: 13.2%
- Wisconsin: 12.8%
Closing Reflections
The GOP is bleeding support with its early voters in many of the battlegrounds. These votes are already locked in. While election day voters may buck this trend, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that they can completely reverse it. This is even more probable in those states where GOP voters are outperforming their overall registration numbers and/or outperforming Democrats in early voting.
Again, these statistical findings are not an invitation to complacency and certainly not a guarantee of victory. Instead, they should bolster confidence that the Harris-Walz campaign strategy to attract winnable/moderate GOP voters and independent voters was a stroke of genius. This should encourage all of us to reach out to *all* potential voters. Lots of Republicans and independents can be persuaded, and lots of infrequent and new voters can be encouraged to turn out. Let's run through the finish line!
Update 1 [1:50pm CST]
Thank you to so many for the recommendations. Nice to be on the rec list!
TargetSmart just updated its early voter party ID numbers for Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I’ve adjusted the opening summary accordingly.
Previous PA early voter party ID: Dem 58%, GOP 32%, Ind 10% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 1.6M voted)
Current PA early voter party ID: Dem 57%, GOP 33%, Ind 10% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 1.625M voted)
Plausible GOP defection rates in PA [adjusted]
|
Ind -> Harris
|
GOP -> Harris
|
|
75%
|
5.8%
|
|
70%
|
7.3%
|
|
65%
|
8.8%
|
|
60%
|
10.4%
|
|
55%
|
11.9%
|
Previous WI early voter party ID: Dem 35%, GOP 24%, Ind 41% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 1.2M voted)
Current WI early voter party ID: Dem 34%, GOP 25%, Ind 41% (source: NBC/TargetSmart, 1.22M voted)
Plausible GOP defection rates in WI [adjusted]
|
Ind -> Harris
|
GOP -> Harris
|
|
58%
|
5.0%
|
|
56%
|
8.3%
|
|
54%
|
11.6%
|
|
52%
|
14.9%
|
|
50%
|
18.2%
|
Both adjustments point to a slight, recent increase in rates of GOP cross-over voting (if the Marist early voting sample ratios remain consistent), to a shifting electorate where GOP turnout is increasing as election day approaches, or both.
