Midterms are not kind to the incumbent party. The reason is obvious. Politicians make more promises than they can keep — and the grass is always greener on the other side. In 2022, the Democrats celebrated a ‘winning’ midterm because they did better than expected — losing only 9 seats. But they still lost the House.
The last time an incumbent President’s party picked up House seats was in 2002, during Bush Jr’s first term — when W had an approval rating in the mid-60s in the aftermath of 9/11. Since then the incumbent’s party has lost an average of 31 seats. There is no reason to think 2026 will be any different.
The GOP will likely have a majority in the House in 2025. But at best it will be tiny. Their candidates will then have to run on Trump’s record. The odds are it will be ugly. Especially as Trump enters office as a lame duck with grievance, vengeance, and retribution priming his pump.
Trump doesn’t give a shit about his party. He will not let electoral considerations distract him from taking a sledgehammer to the economy. By the beginning of 2026, Americans will be paying the price — literally — for his inflationary tariff policies, while fruits and vegetables rot on farms stripped of labor by his sadistic anti-immigration stupidity.
Many voters will not care that Ukraine is on the ropes, NATO is teetering, climate change agreements are being used as kindling, or that dictators have the American President licking their hands. They may dismiss Republican homophobia, misogyny, and racism as a media creation. But, as they showed in 2024, if they have to spend more for stuff they will vote for the other guy.
Paradoxically, Republicans will be hurt by gerrymandering. On the surface, this is a big win for the party. It has allowed them to dominate congressional delegations in states where they only have a small majority of the vote.
The problem the GOP has created for itself is that incumbents in safe seats have no incentive to moderate their position. This leaves the incumbents in the remaining toss-up seats having to defend extreme policies. To give an example, MT Greene (+29%) will vote for all of Trump’s moronic excess without sparing a thought for the newly elected Ryan MacKenzie or Robert Bresnahan who just flipped two Democratic seats in PA, with majorities under 2%. Republicans may walk in lockstep but they are not team players.
MacKenzie, Bresnahan, and all other Republicans with single-digit margins are in no-win situations. Should they decide to buck the party to present a more electable face to the voters, they will find themselves primaried by a Trump-endorsed true believer. Voters already disinclined to vote Republican because of inflation will be further alienated by MAGA candidates promising more of the same.
Now is the time for the Democratic Party to reassess. They cannot campaign in 2026 as they did in 2024. They have one mission — win. And that means their economic message must take precedence over all else — with pro-choice remaining a major plank.
They cannot fight every cause and get lost in fights over items dear to few and off-putting to many - pronouns for instance.
In 2024, Democrats took it on the chin. In 2026, they have the opportunity to recover from calamity — if they take it. Democrats have advantages. Their policies are preferred by the majority of Americans, including many who vote Republican. But the party needs leaders who can drive that point home — and Chuck Schumer is not one of them. That guy has the charisma of store-brand mayonnaise and the fire of a sloth.
Democrats need to look to their bench and find the passion. They need the voices that can convince workers a vote for the ‘D’ candidate is the best and only choice for their economic future — and return working Americans, including union members, to their traditional home. Trump’s economic recklessness will give them ammunition. But that will go to waste if the Democrats cannot hang his failures around his neck.
One advantage to having no power to do anything, is that you cannot be blamed (if you choose to fight) when the things that are done turn out disastrous. Ironically, the Democrats’ complete electoral failure in 2024 lays the groundwork for their electoral recovery starting in 2026.
Some naysayers and other pessimists say that MAGA won because America is irredeemably bigoted and that’s not going to change. They are wrong. In 2020, a majority of 7 million Americans voted against Trump — and those people did not become bigots overnight.
These doomsayers also whinge that Republicans have stacked the deck with gerrymandering election suppression laws and a friendly Supreme Court. Of course they have. Others cry about the conservative media spreading lies. Of course they do. But that is no excuse to quit. You can’t change anything if you don’t win. Don’t blame Republicans for controlling the message. Ask yourself why you are letting them.
Every election is worth fighting, even if you are carrying a handicap. And every election victory is an opportunity — no matter how small — to redress the imbalance.
