Las Vegas Sun:
Donald Trump’s cognitive decline becoming a troubling concern
Donald Trump’s racism, sexism, xenophobia and penchant for corruption have long made him unfit for any public office, let alone the presidency. But as he continues his bid for a second term in the White House, there is an unsettling and undeniable shift that is leading many experts, observers and even some Trump supporters to conclude that the former president’s mental acuity and sharpness are also in decline, that his physical health and stamina are waning and that his frustration and anger are boiling over.
POLITICO:
Harris campaign: Late-deciding voters are ‘breaking by double digits’ for the VP
“We have believed all along that there were still undecided voters here," he says
“We have believed all along that there were still undecided voters here, and that the close of this race was really, really important,” said one of the senior campaign officials, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the state of the race. “And we are seeing that be the case as we are closing out in the last week.”
The official said that a recent focus group with undecided voters in a battleground state showed that the racist, misogynistic and vulgar language at Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally in New York over the weekend isn’t just impacting Puerto Rican and Latino voters, but undecided voters as a whole.
Jill Lawrence/The Bulwark:
Donald Trump Wants to Psych You Out
He’s not the president now and he may never be again.
There is a concrete portent for Harris in math—a huge gender gap that’s showing up in polling (Harris is winning women by double-digits) and early voting (women account for 55 percent of early votes across seven battleground states, versus 45 percent for men). The disparity is driven by one of the rare promises Trump managed to keep: ending the national right to legal abortion. State bans and criminalization of reproductive care have led to tragic consequences for women’s health and lives.
Still, this remains a dead-even, choose-your-own adventure contest. University of Virginia analyst Kyle Kondik offered two contradictory “gut feelings” this week and then wondered if we are now in a “silly season, in which ultimately minor movement in the polls is blown out of proportion, and the confidence gap between the two parties creates the impression of Trump momentum that just isn’t necessarily grounded in reality.”
Trump is indeed the master of the con, or more charitably, the illusion of success, in both business and politics. But faking it doesn’t always lead to making it. This time, if we’re lucky, it will lead to losing. The biggest, most beautiful loss anyone ever saw, by far.
Greg Sargent/The New Republic:
Brutal New Ad Nukes Trump—with His Own Ugly Words on Women
An interview with Jennifer Mercieca, a professor of political communications, who argues that the Harris campaign is tapping deep cultural energies among women that we're underestimating.
Sargent: Jennifer, what’s interesting here is how this ad takes Trump’s misogyny and gives it powerful, concrete, real-world relevance. What’s your takeaway from all this?
Mercieca: Absolutely. The connection of the word punishment—“there must be some punishment for the woman”—which is repeated several times in the Q&A with Trump, and then the juxtaposition of all of the women who suffered really extreme medical emergencies, life threatening situations, really does connect that notion of Trump is punishing women physically, emotionally, and in all other ways because of the abortion ban.
Thomas Zimmer/Democracy Americana:
It Could Definitely Happen Here
Many Americans struggle to accept that democracy is young, fragile, and could actually collapse – a lack of imagination that dangerously blunts the response to the Trumpist Right
Just a few days to go. How is this election close? There are only two choices for president: A manifestly unfit, unqualified, vindictive wannabe-dictator who leads a coalition in which rightwing extremists are fully in charge and who openly promises fascism – or a totally normal, perfectly qualified, utterly non-radical liberal politician who leads a broad coalition that is committed to continuing constitutional self-government. How is this even remotely close?
There are a lot of structural reasons why expecting anyone to vanquish Donald Trump in a blowout is unrealistic. In a two-party system, especially one that operates under conditions of intense negative partisanship – meaning whatever partisans think of their own side, they despise the other even more –, any candidate starts with a floor of 40-ish percent, probably even higher, of the voting public.
Then there is the fact that the election is not happening on a level playing field. America does not have a fair, properly functioning democratic system. In fact, the system wasn’t designed to accommodate multiracial, pluralistic democracy – it consistently awards disproportionate power to a shrinking minority of white conservatives who are fully aligned behind the Republican Party. In 2016, Trump got three million fewer votes than his opponent Hillary Clinton – but won because his base of non-college educated white people, especially men, was perfectly distributed geographically, with a heavy concentration in key battleground states, to maximize his chances under the conditions of the Electoral College.
Donalds: Stop making me confront the truth.
Dan Pfeiffer/Message Box:
If Kamala Harris Wins, Here are Three Reasons Why
The polls can't tell us who is going to win, but there are other measures to look at
The polls are close to meaningless at this point. And I say that as someone who obsesses over the polls, hosts a podcast about polling, and will almost certainly write about the last batch of New York Times/Siena polls expected in the next few days. To make a case for either candidate as being the slight favorite depends on factors other than the polling.
Of course, Trump could win. He could outperform his polls as he did in 2016 and 2020. No one would be shocked. All of the major electoral models rate Trump as a slight favorite. I wrote last week about the case for optimism regarding Harris’s chances of winning. I still believe she is the slight favorite in this incredibly close race.
I know spouting optimism is very off-brand for me, but there is enough doom and panic happening among Democrats. Therefore, here are a few more reasons to hope:
1. Dems Are More Enthusiastic
The conventional wisdom is that Donald Trump is a cult leader for whom his supporters will crawl across broken glass to vote. That narrative ignores the reality that Democrats are much more enthusiastic about Harris than Republicans are about Trump. According to new data from Gallup, Democrats have a 10-point advantage on enthusiasm.
While We're Seeing Good New Battleground State Polls And Encouraging Early Vote Data, Trump The Unfit And Unwell Ends Ugly, Really, Really Ugly
Where is the election today? I still think we are up by 2-4 points nationally and in a stronger position in the Electoral College - despite what the averages and forecasters say. With all the new polling it’s clear we’ve had an encouraging closing week of polling in the battlegrounds. The VP is far better liked, and likeable, something that matters to late breaking voters. We’ve closed the gap on the economy with Trump - a huge campaign achievement - and while the jobs number was a little low today, we got very good GDP and inflation data this week. We are closing strong. They are closing ugly, really, really ugly.
Michael McDonald/US Elections Project:
Georgia's 2020 In-Person Early Voting Unusual Turnout Pattern
Friday should be a high turnout day...or maybe not?
The 2024 election is a clear departure from previous presidential elections on the pattern of timing of in-person early voting. Georgia does not have party registration, but if what is happening in Georgia is similar to Nevada and North Carolina, the implication is that Thursday’s nadir is from fewer Republicans voting in-person early. We shall see what tomorrow brings, since in 2016 and 2020 it was was the day for highest in-person early voting turnout. (In the past, this day also sees more young people voting.)
In the past, early voting has been like the hare and tortoise, with Democrats leaping ahead at the starting line and Republican plodding along to catch up in the late in-person early voting and on Election Day. This year the two parties may have switched places, at least with respect to in-person early vote. It remains to be seen to what extent — if any — Republicans have cannibalized their in-person Election Day vote.
Don’t draw premature conclusions from early voting. Don’t draw premature conclusions form early voting. Don’t draw premature conclusions from early voting. Don’t draw premature conclusions from early voting. Don’t draw premature conclusions from early voting.
This is a great thread:
