The problem with knocking on doors — the problem with knocking on doors and talking to voters, especially Swing State voters — is that i get asked all the time, “How Is It Out There?”
Pretty sure i’m not the only one. I am betting many of our Hope Springs from Field PAC’s [website] volunteers are asked the same thing by their family and friends. In my case, i get asked by presidential campaign staffers, former (and one not yet former) presidents, the campaign staffers i’ve worked with before, elected officials (including those who are knocking on doors themselves) and political appointees to the Biden Administration. Even my wife, who helps me to decompress after every weekend. And, yet, still she asks!
Apparently, inquiring minds are everywhere.
I get it. The newspapers are scared. Mass media wants to make this a horserace (and make their publishers money). Oh, yeah, reporters who’ve known me from the early aughts and before ask. Here’s the thing: this year, i’ve got the same answer for everyone:
This is a very close race. We live in a sharply divided country. And even if you only talk to Democrats and No Party Affiliation voters, you can feel that division. Because it is on the minds of everyone.
Elections are where this partisan division bleeds through.
I won’t explain why (i think there are numerous reasons why, and i’m betting everyone reading this knows many of the reasons why), but this campaign feels an awful lot like Obama 3.0. For those of us still around from the Obama Senate and Presidential Campaigns, the verbage, goals and emphasize on data is familiar. Even comforting.
We’ve done this before. We know what to do. We’ve known success doing it. Everyday feels like something old, something new, something challenging, something blue. (i made that last one up.)
But even though this is a close race, i am confident Kamala Harris is going to win. Absolutely confident.
And i’m going to try to explain why. This is my 10th presidential campaign. I didn’t work the Hillary campaign and i don’t count Biden’s last campaign. So i’ve done this before. I can remember a presidential where it was apparent we would lose before Halloween. And i can remember a presidential where it was so close they took it to court. Seriously. 2024 feels like none of those.
To me. Chuck Todd thinks this feels like 2000 or 2004 to him. I disagree and i’ll tell you why. In 2000, Democrats faced repeated questions from voters about the Democratic president. Repeated is an operative word here. Bill Clinton hung over the 2000 election like a bad dream — at least for the voters in Swing States where we were knocking on doors.
Anyone want to take a stab at who is playing the Clinton role this year? Anyone? Got a name that springs to mind?
In 2004, a Republican president planted the American flag between his legs and wouldn’t let go. Donald Trump may try to hug the American flag, but there’s a little thing about his Nazi Rally or insurrection that prevents some of the voters i’ve talked to this year from associating Trump with America.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 2nd to set up a favorable “battle space” or foundation for Democrats in 2024. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
Here’s the thing: i knocked on a hell of a lot of doors in way too many states (i eventually spent the rest of the cycle in Wisconsin) that cycle and you’d run into Republicans (sometimes they were former Democrats swept up in patriotism). But the one thing we found early at the doors was that women (especially) around the age of 40 suddenly shifted from Democratic to Republican. I can’t tell you how many times in that election where the walk list said the female was a Democrat and she would disabuse you of that right quick, whether it was Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida or Colorado.
We aren’t seeing that this year. In fact, over the last two years, ever since Dobbs was accept by SCOTUS, women have been returning to the Democratic fold. But the memory of 2004 was that our walk lists were f*cked and it demoralized a lot of volunteers. And we aren’t seeing that this year. We aren’t finding Republicans who used to be Democrats this year, just the opposite. We are seeing Republicans moving away from the MAGA Nation.
Whether it’s the Generals or the Never Trump Republicans, we are definitely seeing an effect on voters (in the last month). We are hearing of people tell us they are afraid to tell anyone they support Harris — shy Harris voters? — while pollsters are telling everyone they are afraid they are missing “shy Trump voters,” fighting the last election.
One of the questions my fellow (or past) organizers keep asking about is why we are seeing higher Open Door rates that in many other places. And i keep reminding them that we’ve had people knock on the same doors 3 or 4 times now, that (until this month) voters could look at their Ring cameras and see Hope Springs volunteers carrying the same pile of papers — we are identifiable to these voters after awhile.
A voter told me (in one of my 10/10/10 calls on Thursdays) that’s why he opened the door. People had talked about it — even shared Ring video with their neighbors (something that still kinds of freaks me out) — before he’d answered the door. When i explained to him that i was calling him to make sure that the volunteer had stopped by (because he had an even high response rate than his fellow volunteers), he quipped that “we were waiting for you!” Now you can’t extrapolate that with the areas where Hope Springs isn’t knocking, but it’s different.
Here’s where my political friends are at: they are anxious, probably more anxious than ever. And this is true of the elected officials i’ve talked to recently, the political appointees i’ve talked to, even my campaign friends. And i feel anxious to. But i am confident in the outcome. We are going to win. Kamala Harris is going to be our next president. Thank god.
Over and over this is my takeaway from knocking on doors in the western suburbs of Pittsburgh. By all accounts, GOP territory. I’ve now talk to 3 undecideds in the last 10 days. And the fact is, they aren’t deciding between Trump and Harris, they are deciding between Kamala and not voting. But that isn’t what is making me confident. It’s because voters aren’t looking at the both of them. Near as i can tell, everybody’s minds are made up about TFG. Good or bad, they’ve decided. Part of our GOTV script now feels antiquated. Several times, voters have asked me why i am voting for Kamala. And i tell them my issue, which is really the Courts, but i frame it in terms of Freedom. I say it’s shocking to me that we have been taking away Constitutional Rights. Shocking. And it’s not about abortion (per se, i’m not going to have an abortion — it’s about our Right to Privacy in this internet age). It’s about the fact that — now — we have to fight back to protect these Rights. And i always say, i know this isn’t your issue but i’m not the only one for whom it is their issue.
But my friends and i, we keep coming back to the same thing: everything we know, everything that our campaign experience tells us, is that the Harris campaign is doing everything right to win and the Trump campaign is doing it all wrong. We are beating down the doors — bugging the hell out of those ~5% who are undecided. We are working our targeting models and, for those who have never done this before, practicing with our Election Day runners for the great task at hand.
No one has seen the MAGA groups. Not like they were doing the same thing. Why am i confident of winning on Tuesday. Because i believe in that experience, believe in the program, believe in the voters we have found. I believe the numbers, i believe we have a rational win number, i know we are exceeding what they were looking for in September. Looking back over 10 presidential campaigns, this feels right. Not the landslide we’d all like, but the victory that we deserve. WE EARNED THIS. Candidate, organization, money and trends. We deserve to win on Tuesday. Run through the tape!
Just got another message, asking me this: “Dumb question , but do you think the election is decided? I hear a lot of talk, but assume all is propaganda to get people not to show up and vote (" it doesn't matter...")”
And this is how i replied: i am confident of victory, but we are working our tails off to achieve it…
The rule of thumb has been that late-breaking undecideds tend to break for the non-incumbent, which is the role Kamala plays in this election. And that is what is happening. As expected.
If you are able to support our efforts to mobilize these difficult, brand new voters to cast their ballots in November, especially in minority communities, expanding the electorate, or just believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please donate:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2024electionprotection
You can follow that link for our mailing address, as well (for those who would rather contribute by check). Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
