Valery Zaluzhny, who was the general in charge of Ukraine’s army before Zelensky fired him last February, and who is now Ukraine’s ambassador to the UK, said today at a ceremony that he believes World War III has already begun. World War III broke out in 2024 – Ukraine's former commander-in-chief (Ukrainska Pravda):
"I believe that in 2024, we can absolutely assume that World War III has begun.
The reason is that in 2024, Ukraine is no longer facing Russia. Ukraine is facing soldiers from North Korea. Let's be honest. Iranian-made Shaheds [loitering [sic] munitions] are killing civilians in Ukraine quite openly.
It's missiles made in North Korea that are being launched onto Ukraine, and they are openly declaring this. Chinese-made shells are exploding in Ukraine, and Chinese parts are used in Russian missiles."
A world war means that all or most of the major nations of the world are involved. When Putin invaded Ukraine back in 2022, his was the only nation (other than Ukraine, of course). But now North Korea has been sending troops — possibly as many as a hundred thousand — and China and Iran are also involved.
But Ukraine is not the only conflict China is involved in. China is making more and bolder moves in the South China Sea, which it claims as Chinese territory, and is ramping up its pressure on Taiwan — an explosive situation not at all helped by Trump’s choice of “China hawk” Marco Rubio for State. Back in February 2024, Foreign Policy warned that Risk signals for a conflict [with China] are flashing red.
We can’t know precisely when [wars] will happen, but we can recognize factors that lead to higher or lower degrees of risk. Today, China’s risk indicators are blinking red.
In addition to Ukraine and East Asia, there is the Middle East, which is not flashing red but burning red. The Hamas atrocities of October 2023 triggered an overreaction by Israel’s Netanyahu — exactly what Hamas was hoping would happen — which he has now expanded into Lebanon, with occasional spats with Iran. An article in today’s NYT asks: Israel and Iran Seemed on the Brink of a Bigger War. What’s Holding Them Back? and suggests diplomacy is a major part of the reason:
Partly that is the result of frantic diplomacy behind the scenes by allies including the United States, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. But the calculated, limited strikes also reflect the fact that the alternative — a war of “shock and awe” between Israel and Iran — could lead to dire consequences not just for the region but also much of the world.
There are also long-term instabilities — climate change, overpopulation, unmanageable technology — but right now we have more urgent problems.
All of this has been hard enough for an experienced president with a competent national security team to manage. In two months, they will be replaced by a demented sociopath who has no idea how to resolve conflicts and no interest in learning, and who is surrounding himself with lackeys as incompetent as he. On top of which, he wants to isolate America from the world in an an era of nuclear weapons and supersonic missiles.
Karl Marx didn’t get it exactly right when he said that history repeats itself first as tragedy and then as farce. World War II was World War I repeated as tragedy; World War III be farce on top of tragedy.
Minor edits:
I reminded myself below that I had forgotten to include Putin’s intention to restore the old Russian empire (sometimes called the Soviet Union, but never mistake that for anything but a Russian-controlled union — yes, even under Stalin). Given Trump’s obsequiousness toward Putin and his contempt for (and lack of understanding of) NATO, look for Putin to take the opportunity to grab the Baltic states and possibly also Poland as soon as he feels he can do so. Even if he doesn’t invade outright, expect him to use the same asymmetrical warfare tricks he has already been using on the US and in Moldova (though in the latter case with less success so far).
Second point: WWI and WWII were largely fought by two sides on a global battlefield. In a WWIII situation, it’s much more likely there will be several sides, each with their own conflicts and with alliances that may quickly shift as events dictate.
Third point: It is to Russia’s advantage to have a destabilized world (though only up to a certain point). Up to now, the United States has generally acted as a world stabilizer (Trump in his first term didn’t act that way, but he wasn’t able to destabilize the world very much); Putin has now removed that stabilizing force. China, North Korea, Israel, and Iran (and possibly some other countries) also see some advantage to themselves in an unstable world — so long as they can limit the degree of instability. But historically speaking, once destabilization starts, it cannot be controlled.
