In part one of this series I told you follow the money. That led to Trump’s tariff scheme that becomes his lever to wealth and power. We continue the money hunt by going deeper into his setting up of “protection” schemes. Those schemes pose great danger to our democracy, our economy and our personal wellbeing.
How does this differ from his first term?
In his first term, Trump knew if he could maintain a strong economy, particularly among the business folks, he could win a second term. That’s why when he saw the impact of Covid he railed against closures and other actions that damaged the economy and stock market.
He supported bailouts to boost the economy, so went along with Democrats who controlled the House in the second half of his term. Remember, we won the House in 2018 because of his chaos, not because of an economic collapse.
Economic crisis had not hit yet. It will be different this time.
When crisis hit in early 2020, he let Democrats take steps to boost the economy by issuing stimulus checks. He just made sure the checks had his name on them. That became a crucial move in winning a second time after folks began to forget the trauma and chaos of his first term.
And remember, with Democrats holding the House and Republicans the Senate and Presidency when Covid hit, it was unclear to low info voters who was responsible for what in terms of what was done during the Covid crisis. Trump closed businesses and churches. Trump required masks, for awhile. DeSantis thought he could saddle Trump with those acts and contrast his own antics in “Free” Florida.
By moving blazingly fast with vaccinations, Biden began opening up things and reducing mask mandates in May 2021, barely 100 days after taking office. Many remembered the money, the signature on the checks, and forgot Trump’s lies and incompetence in other things.
Two out of three checks went out in Trump’s time in office. The third, under Biden. The real recovery came not from checks but from a number of actions taken by Biden and Democrats in 2021-22.
Trump made the Covid pandemic more disruptive and longer in its impact with his chaos and denial and refusal to even work with the incoming Biden administration at all, setting back effective recovery action by months.
MAGA voters forgot this. They will soon be reminded. Chaos is coming.
The key thing to remember is Trump did not then, and does not now, want a second term to do things for Americans.He wanted a second term so he can continue to be insulated from the consequences of his actions, and to put into place more judges who act in his favor and in the favor of the Republican Party he had almost, but not quite, thoroughly cowed during his first term.
He’s also got a new, more dangerous gambit this time. This gambit is to build a network of oligarchs who will work hand in glove with him to loot our country.
Trump’s priorities
He wants to protect himself from consequences. ALSO, he wants revenge on those who tried to bring him to account. And, he wants that power to last longer than his 4-year term.
These motivations are apt to get out of hand.
These motivations will collide with what many of the voters who put him in power want. A key thing to remember is Americans feel the US government does not respond to them or their needs. They are convinced the rich and powerful have rigged things. The Powell Memo, which MAGAs know nothing about, is the smoking gun for big businesses rigging the system. And Reagan, Republicans fabled hero, played a huge role in making sure the working class got screwed.
A glance at how productivity became divorced from wages only after 1980, and how in real terms wages have stagnated ever since, shows the success of the Republican propaganda apparatus that memo called for.
But the prescription all too many Americans have arrived at, after decades of sclerotic inaction and disappointment from a gridlocked Washington, is to break the system they feel no longer serves them. A slew of progressive legislation passed in the House but died in the filibuster worshipping Senate. Those laws could have transformed America and lowered much of the built up anger and frustration felt by voters who simply cannot grasp what is going on in Congress. Since the system only seems to respond to the rich and powerful, MAGAs think it takes a rich and powerful chaos agent to break the current system, so who better than a billionaire president arm in arm with the richest man in the world?
How Trump Won
When MAGAs look at the recent presidential campaign, they saw Trump and Musk versus Harris and a panoply of the rich and famous like Oprah, Beyonce, Swift and so on. Who would you prefer to run things, entertainers or entrepreneurs? As far as their gut check went, entertainers are the ones best at illusion, acting (deception) and telling you what you want to hear. Entrepreneurs like Musk have a track record of changing things, breaking the establishment, taking risks and, for young guys, acting “manly.”
As far as young guys could see, it was Wonder Woman versus Superman (Trump) and other billionaire superheros. The Trump action figures and pics of him and his crew in superhero garb turn out to have been subliminal influencers resonating with the DC and Marvel Universe and other aspects of popular and youth culture.
Democrats thought we had the culture with us and we made fun of washed up has beens Hulk Hogan and the like. That pic of Trump as Superman among other superheroes such as Musk and so on made us laugh.
But our superheroes were singers and talkers, not doers of deeds. It was The Apprentice versus Oprah. It was “you’re fired!” versus “there’s a surprise under your seat.”
There sure was a surprise under our seat in November 2024. Not a nice one, either.
Those of us over 50 probably don’t understand not just how social media was used against us, but also how popular action hero, male appealing movie culture became a hidden influencer on the young. The Superhero comic book based movie culture appeals mainly to young males, and it is patriarchically male, usually pushing females into secondary and dependent, unheroic roles. The wrestling world that crops up repeatedly with Trump is full of fake heroes and villains, and dominated by males with exaggerated male characteristics and behaviors.
Young males are dominantly lonely. They feel powerless and abandoned. The “bro sphere” offers them companionship online via outlets like Spotify—with podcasts replacing the hate radio of their elders. See Don't underestimate the Rogansphere. His mammoth ecosystem is Fox News for young people (Guardian)
We made fun of Trump’s rambling speeches and seemingly unfocused campaign. Nathan Heller of the New Yorker “Republican Victory and the Ambiance of Information,” revealed, as Lawrence O’Donnell noted, a crucially missed component of how Trump won this election. Harris held commanding leads among those who actually pay attention to news. Trump swept males who get their info along the way, in vague snippets of comments about current events on podcasts ostensibly focused on sports, games, personalities, movies and so on.
Harris underestimated the impact of not going on Joe Rogan’s show. Rogan’s last minute endorsement of Trump appears to have swung a significant portion of the crucial percentage who decided at the last minute both to vote and who to vote for.
Trump’s win was very narrow, and last minute.
We have to get better at looking out for the new media and influencers. Harris did a lot with them, but not enough except with the female dominated side of it. Walz wasn’t on the male side—the bro sphere—either.
How Trump will lose
But that nasty prize under your seat goes for those thinking they can profit during Trump’s chaos, also. The new media can turn against you. Musk is already finding out as millions abandon X.
I wonder how the bros will feel about Rogan when their Trump vote backfires, bigtime.
Many of the businesses backing Trump suppose that on the one hand, there is a populist group of Trump influencers who are going to shake things up. On the other, there is Trump and his easily manipulated attention and greed. They figure they can check the one, if necessary, by appealing to the other.
This fulcrum between Trump greed and reckless--tech bros “breaking things” while inventing stuff--is where miscalculation will flourish.
While Trump is motivated by greed, he has learnt that people will pay for “protection.” He believes fear is power; so making people fearful gives him an opening to offer them “protection” from the very fear he cultivates.
His “protection” racket is a source not just of wealth, but power. Not just with businesses, but also with other key groups.
For example, so called Christians fell for his promise he would protect the unborn. He would protect their churches from being shut down during Covid. He would protect them against gays and trans people—sexual sinners to these “Christians”—and he would protect their children from gays and non-sectarian public education by funding their madrasas and putting the Bible in every classroom and restoring public prayer on school grounds and so on. All they had to do was vote this once for him and then they could relax.
He will “protect” women whether they like it or not by making boys boys again and restoring the patriarchy in all its glory. See boys, real Men protect “their” women and expect favors and obedience in turn. Women don’t belong in combat; they belong in bed, or the kitchen. Churches that forbid women preachers and teach subjugation of women ate this up.
Okay, I’m back. Sorry, I had to go puke just writing this. I hate male dominance, and I am a male.
I grew up fundamentalist. I know the mindset.
He’s running the same protection scheme on the Republican Party. If they protect him, he will protect them from his MAGA nutters. If they go along with what he wants, he won’t turn on them. He will protect them from the consequences of letting him do whatever he wants.
And they now believe that he can protect them after he did all he did, yet came away with a majority of the votes cast and a clear win in this election.
He seems untouchable.
There’s nothing a Republican politician wants more than power. Okay, one thing surpasses that: Money. Trump offers both. And his way seems bullet proof.
Bullets bounce off him. He leaps tall buildings with a single bound.
Superman. Except his way is not Truth, Justice and The American Way.
It’s Fear, Injustice and The Putin Way.
He fully intends to build an oligarch dominated network, with politicians indebted to him and his buddies. This network is sustained by oligarchical donations and dark money (especially crypto) networks. Trump’s own social media company is trying to buy a crypto outfit.
The first article in this series showed how Trump will use tariffs and threats of tariffs to punish and reward. His endorsement and support for a successor to protect and nourish this legacy coalition of domination and fear gives him significant influence, hence protection, even out of office.
For Christian Nationalists and other End Times types, Trump had a grievous political wound and recovered from it to roar back into power. I think Revelation has a similar story. And, for those church types who don’t bother to actually read the Bible, that Biblical figure also came to power proclaiming they would bring peace, a false promise which led to horrific war. But that doesn’t mean we are in for the Apocalypse.
I hope.
And here’s where things turn bad for them and hopeful for us. Trump can’t get another term. He can’t protect himself by running again. He believes with enough money he can protect himself indefinitely. With enough money he can buy protection and lawyers and influence and keep out of jail until he dies. He will be “owed” enough favors by enough judges who he will appoint that he thinks they will protect him, especially if he can continue to pack the courts with people fundamentally corruptible, or true believers who think they please God by protecting him who has done so much to protect their “Christian” beliefs.
This worked in his first term. He fully expects it to work during and after his second. And this time, he’s adding a Mafiosi type oligarchic network to his protection tools.
In a word, he thinks he’s on the road to being untouchable. A Made Man. Protecting the MAGA Mob and his dark money billionaire cronies, and protected by them and the Mob.
Mafia Superman.
He’s actually on the road to overstepping.
The hubris is strong in this one. But the Greek Tragedy in the making is not Trump’s alone. It will also be coming to his MAGA voters.
He’s also on the road to being a lame duck, especially after 2026 mid-terms.
He’s on the road to triggering a backlash so big and likely an economic crash so bad it very well could shatter the Republican Party like the Great Depression shattered the Republican Party for a generation and more. But, that crash is going to hurt almost everyone and it will mark us all. I don’t see a way yet to avoid that, and I hope it is only a deep recession and not a full out Depression triggered by an out of control worldwide trade war leading to further outbreaks of real war, as in the Great Depression being followed by WWII.
China wants Taiwan, and Taiwan is strategically vital to global trade. Trump is going to war, a trade war, with China. China will respond.
Russia is already at war, they say with us, whether we know it or not or admit it. If Trump abjectly abandons Ukraine and Europe, then cripples NATO and launches a trade war with the EU, the EU, the single largest trade and economic bloc on earth, will respond. See this post: “WWIII has begun, says Ukrainian General”.
If he applies tariffs to everything coming into the US, it’s a world trade war, the same thing that highly intensified the Great Depression.
Our trade partners and adversary nations already are responding. Opportunities for serious miscalculating are multiplying.
This doesn’t even begin to address his other moves like mass deportation and ruthless wholesale abolition of entire government agencies and programs. And he’s coming for Social Security, just like he did in every single budget he proposed in his first term.
Musk told the bros we’re in for a lot of pain. The entire Bro brother network is fleshing this out and justifying the wholesale wrecking to come already. See, for example The Hill, “Americans Want Mass Deportations, Period.”
I hope and expect Democrats can regain enough power in 2026 to lessen the impact and steer the possibly out of control situation back onto a safer course, but I am not sure that will be soon enough. I am sure the people in his administration won’t be able to check Trump’s impulses, even if they become willing to do so.
We appear to be strapped into a train with no brakes, and people fighting over the throttle.
Coming Next Week: The Mechanics of a Crash
I am trying to keep these weekly posts around 1,500 words to promote readability. This is already far too long.
Next week, we look at ways tariff increases, crypto promotion, Kennedy in control of health and food safety agencies, undocumented persons deportations, DEI rollbacks, Medicaid bloc grants, radical slashes in Federal services and agencies and so on could get out of hand and lead to a crash. We’ll look at what sectors of the economy and sizes and types of companies could handle the coming chaos better. We’re going to explore some ideas on what Democrats can do about Trump’s actions, both to protect themselves economically in investment terms and to oppose them politically.
NOTE for investors:
In the meanwhile, for investors and those with IRAs and 401ks, if you have various options you can pick as offered by your retirement plan managers, start making sure you know what they are and how often and to what extent you can change them.
If you can control what companies and ETFs are in your investment and retirement accounts, large companies with international operations (limit exposure to China) are likely the best to survive Trump’s chaos. Tech oriented ETFs will probably do okay, though the tech sector already pays only about 16% or so in taxes, so a reduction of the business tax rates to 15% won’t have much effect there. And tech is already at very high PE ratios. Pay attention to earnings estimates and how those are adjusted up or down quarter to quarter. Target reported reduced earnings and its stock price fell nearly 25% instantly this week. The market as a whole is way, way, way over long term average P:E ratios of around 15 times earnings.
There will be a significant correction ahead.
That is, the market is going to drop from its current highs. Building up cash for now is generally a better course of action than buying stocks. A correction will make good stocks priced too high now for a good return to be much more affordable, and will allow them to give you a better return.
Timing the market is usually a bad idea. This situation where we can clearly see trouble dead ahead should be different.
You can also go back in time, such as the first term of Trump, to see what companies managed to do better. I prefer dividend paying companies. Companies that kept paying dividends during the Covid crisis, and even increased dividends then, are more likely to do okay this time. But their current share prices are likely to drop.
Consumer discretionary will likely take a hit next year whereas consumer staples should do better. There is no need to panic now (never panic, ever, when investing). If you don’t know about stock market sectors, start learning what they are. Investopedia.com is a good place to start. Don’t panic at what seems a flood of information there. Look first through the “personal finance” section and even the “financial literacy” section for students if you are a beginner or completely unfamiliar with investing.
There are a lot of Warren Buffet videos on Youtube. His discussion of an article he wrote in 1999 about long term effects of markets getting overpriced is worth a watch. Buffet has amassed a record level of cash at his investment firm. He has been steadily selling large chunks of his equity holdings. If you don’t know about Buffet, start learning now. Right now!
Don’t panic. Learn.