Buyer’s remorse is rampant since Trump and the GOP barely won the election. Muslim Americans in Michigan who supported Trump are now begging Biden to save Gaza from escalation from Bibi. Wall Street executives are alarmed by Trump’s tariffs. Hispanics in south Florida are freaking out about the mass deportation scheme. Weren’t they paying attention before the election?
Now it’s the farmers who are sounding the alarm about Trump’s plans to carry out his promises to jack up tariffs and deport 10 to 15 million immigrants. Apparently, they thought Trump was bloviating and didn’t really mean to carry out his promises. That’s a common talking point on the right these days. I thought Trump meant what he said.
Rural America has been the foundation of MAGA Republican support. In 2024, Trump won rural voters by an overwhelming margin of 64% to 32% over Harris. Moreover, Trump won over 77% of the popular vote, on average, in the nation’s most farming dependent counties.
Trump’s loyal supporters in the nation’s farm belt are (justifiably) worried that Trump is going to badly damage their $1.5 trillion industry. His extreme deportation plan is causing widespread panic among farmers at risk of losing workers and business. Agricultural output will decline between $30 and $60 billion if Trump’s signature deportation policy is carried out.
The soybean and grain dependent Midwest is especially at risk, since this part of the country needs the federal government’s program that allows certain companies to bring foreign workers into the U.S. to fill temporary agriculture jobs. The forced removal of immigrant farm workers will badly hurt Nebraska.
A study released last month by the National Corn Growers Association found another failed Trump trade war with China could cost U.S. soybean and corn farmers as much as $7.3 billion in annual production value.
“This burden is not limited to the U.S. soybean and corn farmers who lose market share and production value,” the study’s authors predicted. “There is a ripple impact across the U.S., particularly in rural economies where farmers live, purchase inputs, utilize farm and personal services, and purchase household goods.”
Those concerns are justified since soybean sales alone to China precipitously declined by a whopping 79% in the first two years of Trump’s presidency. According to the Nebraska Farm Bureau, Trump’s trade war cost Nebraska farmers $2 billion. By 2020, a whopping 40% of farm income came from government handouts. That bailout cost the U.S. taxpayers $28 billion.
Democrats need to oppose the inevitable taxpayer-funded efforts to bail out farmers hurt by Trump’s tariffs and immigrant deportations. If rural voters wise up and start voting out their elected Republican officials, we can revisit. But there’s no reason for Democrats to repeatedly protect rural voters from the consequences of their misguided electoral decisions.
The MAGA Republicans’ misguided policies won’t only harm the rural areas of the country, they will also jack up inflation. The deportation of 10 to 15 million immigrants will cause the cost of food and housing to soar. Imposing tariffs or taxes on food imported from Mexico and other U.S. trading partners will also cause grocery prices to skyrocket.
What we have learned is that a large majority of voters believe that the country is on the wrong track. Late deciders broke for Trump and they did not like inflation, and they wanted something different. (They’re going to get something different and they won’t like it.)
The overwhelming majority of undecided voters only pay attention to politics long enough to cast their ballots. They are not watching rallies or news broadcasts. They are irritated by political ads and throw away mailers. This is why searches of “Did Joe Biden drop out?” soared on November 5.
We have learned the hard way is that we have a low-information swing electorate that is busy living their lives and simply votes on a whim. The election was decided by a tiny fraction of disengaged voters who just felt bad vibes about the economy and the country.
There is no grand theory to explain why Trump and the GOP won their very narrow victory.
Trump has promised to reduce gas prices to less than $2 per gallon and interest rates to 2%. The Republicans don’t have any plans to lower gas and grocery prices. Those low information swing voters will soon be disappointed to learn that everything will get more expensive.
All the Democrats have to do to win in 2026 is obstruct, stay united and do the work. The Trump coalition is a minority and they are expect big cuts in the cost of living. Many will be very disappointed by 2026 and ready to flip.
Blue Wave 2026!
Sources consulted:
Donald Trump’s Deportation Plan Causes Panic Among Farmers
https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-mass-deportation-farmers-1987371
What If There Was No Grand Theory?
https://digbysblog.net/2024/11/20/what-if-there-was-no-grand-theory/
